• SPI Futures imply the ASX 200 will start the day 1% lower
  • Wall St struggled on Friday despite/because of robust jobs data
  • US Q3 earnings to kick off with a big bank focus

Local shares are poised to open lower on Monday with the ASX 200 November futures contract pointing down by 0.9% at 8am Eastern daylight.

Friday rattled Wall St, with all major US indices down and depressed and wondering really what the hell they’re supposed to do next.

The US job openings beat expectations to end the week, but that only fueled fears of more money management on the part of The Fed.

This week features some furious Fedspeak with Brainard, Evans and Bowman just a few of the names headlining a mozzarella of monetary messaging, likely with a distinct hawkish flavour.

Good economics data has become bad news for the stock markets these days as they heighten the likelihood of a more aggressive Fed stance.

Last week’s surprise RBA tilt at a more dovish cash rate rise – pulling out the more gentler 25bp stock – gave local stocks a positive nudge and even prompted sexy talk of a double bottom for local indices, although the same 5% gains seen last week for the ASX 200 were spotted during both the dot.com debacle and the GFC, so maybe don’t bet the house that arse-end of this ride is over.

Wall Street’s next test emerges this week in the shape of corporate earnings, and really it’s all about the lenders as the Q3 reporting season kicks off, all eyes turning to Friday when the Morgans’ (Messrs JPMorgan & Stanley) join the big money banks like Citi and Wells Fargo on the frontline.

A few Q3 US earnings highlights:

Tuesday, October 11 – VOXX International (NASDAQ:VOXX).

Wednesday, October 12 – PepsiCo (PEP) and Duck Creek Technologies (DCT).

Thursday, October 13 – BlackRock (BLK), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

Friday, October 14 – Citigroup (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Delta Air Lines is one of the headliners outside of the financial sector.

Sentiment heading into earnings could not be more shot through with doubt and unease. Goldman and a gaggle of market watchers have been slashing company earnings estimates without mercy since the start of September.

We’re also back on inflation watch for both the States and for China. One has much to fear, the other is fear itself ahead of the 20th party Congress later this week.

Over the weekend, Caixin’s China Services PMI met a four-month low of 49.3% keeping September within contraction mode.

The US 10-year bond yield tapped a seven-day high of almost 3.9% on Friday.

Bitcoin is staying at home, in its room, trading a tight range. The world’s glamour digital currency is steady with a total market value of circa $370 billion and is treading water around the US$20,000 level since last month, according to CoinDesk.

Oil prices also need to be watched very closely and prices have already kicked ahead after OPEC+ drove a stake through output by as much as 2 million bp, double the 1 million bpd reported earlier.

At home, the crunchy number people at the Australian Bureau of Statistics will drop the monthly business turnover data and it might even be worth watching the National Skills Commission’s internet jobless rate.

Traders will be caught between the RBA’s 25bp rock and the hard place of Wall Street paranoia this week – inflation and its trajectory Stateside won’t offer much wriggle room.


5 ASX small caps to watch today

Tabcorp Holdings (ASX:TAH)

TAH is grabbing a 20% stake in the online betting platform Dabble Sports, as per The Oz.

Tabcorp will invest $33m for a 20% equity holding in Dabble and will slap a director onto the Dabble board.

Dabble is reportedly one of the fastest growing gambling brands in Australia, boasting June quarter annualised revenue circa $50m.


Queensland Pacific Metals (ASX:QPM) has requested a trading halt ahead of an announcement relating to a “material investment and offtake agreement”.

QPM’s Townsville Energy Chemicals Hub in North Queensland plans to use an alternative to high pressure acid leach processing called the DNi Process, which QPM says will extract metals from nickel laterite ores (to be imported from New Caledonia) at a lower capital cost and with better environmental outcomes.

Essentially, all the valuable metals will be leached into solution and then recovered and refined into saleable products, the company said earlier this year.

QPM says the trading halt should remain in place until the announcement is released which is expected to be no later than market pre-open on October 12.

Prescient Therapeutics (ASX:PTX)
Prescient swung into the pits on Friday, calling a halt in the lead-up to a placement announcement. As Gregor said late Friday: Anyone planning on buying in this afternoon really should have seen this coming.

GME Resources (ASX:GME)
And new bestie, Stellantis N.V. (NYSE / MTA /Euronext Paris: STLA) just announced their companies have signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding  for the future sale of quantities of battery grade nickel and cobalt sulphate products from the NiWest Nickel-Cobalt Project in Western Australia.

NiWest is an advanced nickel-cobalt development project and will produce approximately 90,000 tpa (tons per annum) of battery grade nickel and cobalt sulphate products1 for the electric vehicle market.

Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR)
Tyro this morning has offered an update on its key performance metrics for the first quarter of FY23 and has improved FY23 guidance.

Key highlights for the quarter ended 30 September 2022

• $10.367 billion in transaction value processed by Tyro merchants – up 59% (pcp: $6.528 billion).

• 4,281 new applications received in the period (pcp: 3,659 new applications).

• Merchant loan originations of $32.7 million – up 116% (pcp: $15.2 million).