Bitcoin, Ethereum and pals are crabbing their way towards Christmas and the new year. The market is desperately hoping no other major implosions occur so we can all just sign off on the 2022 hangover, take another orange pill for good measure (Berocca maybe?) and start anew.

But how about that headline, eh? Let’s talk about that.


Coinbase the latest to eye the cycle bottom

Crypto exchange giant Coinbase has this week released its extensive, in-depth 2023 Market Outlook report.

The overall theme is essentially: “The dramatic events of 2022 will shape the crypto landscape for years to come.” And yet it’s been a helluva year for institutional adoption, while Bitcoin’s core investment thesis remains intact and the tenets/advantages of DeFi, stablecoins and NFTs will keep pushing them front and centre in 2023.

Something like that.

But here’s the part about the report that caught our attention, because it plays into the market-bottoming narrative that many (though certainly not all) an analyst and commentator is seeing around these current levels, if not a tad lower.

And that’s the fact that Coinbase has determined (based on specific profit/loss UXTO movements) that 50% of Bitcoin holders are now underwater on their investment.

That hardly seems something to shout from the rooftops in excitement, but as the exchange’s report points out, this metric in previous bear markets reached an average of 53% – which, if history repeats or rhymes, could mean this cycle’s bottom is either in or very close.

Referring to the previous market peaks, Coinbase wrote:

“These represent major inflection points for BTC performance, preceding subsequent periods of price appreciation… we believe this metric provides important insights into current cycle positioning.”

The report also suggests Bitcoin has shown resilience amid the year’s market inflation-affected turmoil and the Fed’s rate hiking, not to mention the crypto industry’s dreadful feet-shooting implosions.

In fact, it points to the fact that BTC has still managed to outperform some of the world’s major currencies this year, including, okay not the US dollar, but the Euro and the Japanese Yen. Maybe that counts for something.

“The value proposition for Bitcoin has only strengthened this year as sovereign currencies around the world have shown signs of stress and central banks continue to grapple with policy credibility,” wrote Coinbase.


Top 10 overview

With the overall crypto market cap at US$843 billion, down about 0.6% since this time yesterday, here’s the current state of play among top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.


Uppers and downers: 11–100

Sweeping a market-cap range of about US$5.8 billion to about US$303 million in the rest of the top 100, let’s find some of the biggest 24-hour gainers and losers at press time. (Stats accurate at time of publishing, based on data.)


Toncoin (TON), (market cap: US$3.7 billion) +5%

Ethereum Classic (ETC), (mc: US$2.3 billion) +4%

• Tokenize XChange (TKX), (mc: US$532 million) +3%

• GMX (GMX), (mc: US$395 million) +2%

THORChain (RUNE), (mc: US$414 million) +2%



 Chain (XCN), (market cap: US$440 million) -11%

Trust Wallet (TWT), (market cap: US$636 million) -6%

Lido DAO (LDO), (mc: US$771 million) -5%

Arweave (AR), (mc: US$352 million) -5%

Synthetix (SNX), (mc: US$372 million) -4%


Around the blocks

Some randomness and pertinence that stuck with us on our morning moves through the Crypto Twitterverse…

Meanwhile, contrary to what most of us perhaps thought, given Bahamian prison Fox Hill’s reputation, FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s time there has apparently been one of relative luxury compared with other inmates.

According to a Bloomberg report, SBF was granted vegan food, cable telly, crossword puzzles, a private phone line – and even his own bed (apparently not so common there).