Mooners and Shakers: Crypto market on edge, but British cryptographer Adam Back sees $10 million in Bitcoin’s future
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Morning Coinheads. Another set of US CPI inflation data (for January) looms this week, which is keeping traders in risk markets on edge for the moment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, Ethereum and others are dipping a fraction as we type.
We’ll get to some of that nervy price action in a sec. But let’s instead first focus on a couple of wildly positive thoughts we’ve noticed this morning, for an early Monday hopium hit…
… Firstly, from Adam Back, who is a British cryptographer of note, the CEO of Bitcoin-focused blockchain company Blockstream, and the inventor of Hashcash, which is a system used in the Bitcoin mining process.
In this tweet (below) from Back posted a few hours ago, he references the claim that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has, on average, doubled (‘2X’) each year in the decade since January 2013. And yes, that’s a bit of mathematical tweaking there, as BTC certainly didn’t end up doubling in price in 2022.
But, the Bitcoin OG notes that the stat checks out and that, if it were to continue along on its same averaged-out yearly form, BTC will cross US$10 MILLION per coin, with a $200 trillion market cap within about nine years from now, in accordance with the next two Bitcoin halving cycles.
early this year i was curious of the claim "bitcoin 2x's per year on average". it checks: the decade jan 2013 – dec 2022 #bitcoin went up 2.036x/year (1200x in a decade). if that continues we'll cross $10mil/BTC and $200 tril market cap by end of next 2 halvenings, about 9 years. pic.twitter.com/mqmO2SRdAv
— Adam Back (@adam3us) February 12, 2023
Back has posited this kind of thesis for Bitcoin’s future price before, commenting in January that a US$10 million BTC isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds, pointing to the idea that the US dollar could drop considerably in the years to come, along with Bitcoin gaining traction as a widespread currency.
“It’s closer than it sounds as along the path of hyperbitcoinization,” Back tweeted. “The USD inflation rises, e.g. aided by Modern Monetary Theory rationale for high inflation, so $1 becomes worth say 10c over a decade or two of monetary craziness, then $10mil/BTC is $1mil/BTC in today’s money.
“And $100k Bitcoin doesn’t seem so far given we already crossed $10k threshold a few times when few expected even $1k some years back and $10k seemed crazy.”
So then… keep “stacking sats” (satoshis – fractionalised denominations of BTC) in the meantime and play the long game? Judging by Back’s stats, it might not be an unreasonable consideration.
Meanwhile, looking slightly shorter term, the crypto market intelligence and data firm Messari has some interesting statistics of its own, with reference to the aftermath of “golden crosses” in Bitcoin’s chart.
Full macro/crypto recap ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/bG9iQLbzfw
— Messari (@MessariCrypto) February 10, 2023
A golden cross recently formed for Bitcoin, with its 50-day simple moving average flipping above the 200-day simple moving average. Some traders tend to get a bit frothy about it because it has sometimes been an indicator of a bullish run.
According to Messari’s stats, however, the price action for BTC can be somewhat lacklustre in the month that directly follows the golden cross. But… Bitcoin has tended to swing significantly to the upside when looking six months, and a year ahead from the event, with average +34% and +156% returns respectively.
With the overall crypto market cap at US$1.06 trillion, pretty flat since this time yesterday, here’s the current state of play among top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin (BTC) was dipping quite sharply when we began typing up this roundup, but its since consolidated a tad, back to the US$21.8k level that it seems comfortable to laze around for the moment.
Like we said earlier, the US CPI data is due midweek this week, and it’s very likely keeping risk market traders a little on edge for now, or perhaps sidelined until January’s figures either come in roughly as expected and perhaps a fraction lower than December’s, or “hot” and a little higher.
We’re seeing conflicting predictions around market expectations, but, as MarketWatch notes, “few things moved the US stock market last year like inflation data”. Prepare for some more volatility this week, then.
US CPI (inflation) numbers for January will be released on Tuesday👀
The market forecasts a 6.2% inflation – that would be 0.3% lower than in Dec.
Keep a close eye on this event & expect volatility! pic.twitter.com/pGCOXY9Ew5
— Crypto Hub💡 (@CryptoHub210) February 12, 2023
Sweeping a market-cap range of about US$10 billion to about US$445 million in the rest of the top 100, let’s find some of the biggest 24-hour gainers and losers at press time. (Stats accurate at time of publishing, based on CoinGecko.com data.)
• Baby Doge Coin (BABYDOGE), (market cap: US$667 million) +20%
• Render (RNDR), (mc: US$479 million) +11%
• Lido DAO (LDO), (mc: US$2.13 billion) +6%
• Internet Computer (ICP), (mc: US$1.59 billion) +5%
• Solana (SOL), (mc: US$8.1 billion) +4%
• Mina Protocol (MINA), (market cap: US$847 million) -10%
• Loopring (LRC), (mc: US$515 million) -7%
• SingularityNET (AGIX), (mc: US$481 million) -7%
• ImmutableX (IMX), (mc: US$810 million) -6%
• Fantom (FTM), (market cap: US$1.25 billion) -6%
Some pertinence and randomness that stuck with us on our morning moves through the Crypto Twitterverse.
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) February 11, 2023
NEW: 🇧🇷 Brazil's oldest bank now allows payment of tax using #Bitcoin and crypto – The Block
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) February 12, 2023
Cathie Wood's 'Ark Invest' added 162,325 Coinbase shares (worth $9,267,134.25) to its portfolio Yesterday 👀 pic.twitter.com/y12HxOND2p
— Crypto Crib (@Crypto_Crib_) February 11, 2023
#Bitcoin bear markets:
Median duration: 307 days
Recent bear market: 376 days
Median drawdown: -73%
Recent bear market: -77%
I think blockchain assets have seen the lows and that we’re in the next bull market cycle.
— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) February 10, 2023
— ₿itcoin Meme Hub 🔞 (@BitcoinMemeHub) February 12, 2023