Mooners and Shakers: Bitcoin bottom speculation continues; BTC and ETH steady… ish
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Bears, bulls and non-anthropomorphised crypto-market participants continue to speculate on the Bitcoin bottom. Metrics say yes… macro says nah, while technical analysis probably has a bet each way.
One thing that is certainly consistent in crypto right now, though, is the market-sentiment reading – the Fear & Greed Index, which seems permanently switched to a forehead-dabbing “extreme fear” setting.
At least it’s in the double figures today.
But as for that bottom talk, the excellent US on-chain analytics firm Glassnode is back at it with more searing insights. Yesterday we referenced its “Bear of Historic Proportions” analysis, and it’s since released more data in its newsletter, this week titled “Is This Time Different?”
While caveating: “within the current macroeconomic framework, all models and historical precedents are likely to be put to the test”, its analyst “Checkmate” noted:
• Those who bought BTC in 2020 and 2021 have been largely responsible for all the recent selling (suggesting longer-term hodlers are still doing their thing – hodling).
• “Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin, ranging from technical to on-chain, are at all-time lows, coincident with bear-market floor formation in previous cycles.”
• “Based on the current positioning of Bitcoin prices relative to historical floor models, the market is already at an extremely improbable level, with only 0.2% of trading days being in similar circumstances.”
And as you can see from the Glassnode chart below, it certainly looks very close to being a Bitcoin bottom when compared with previous bear-market cycles.
In fact, with BTC currently closing and trading under the 200-week moving average for the first time, it would appear to be oversold compared with the previous lows.
Bitcoin believers may well be happy to keep dollar-cost averaging at these levels. The extra cautious, or maximum-opportunity hunters, however, might be waiting for something lower.
IF, for example, Bitcoin were to come down around 80% to 85% (which has some precedent based on past bear markets) from its November 2021 US$69k all-time high, then, strap in, because, we could well be looking at BTC down at US$10k-US$14k levels.
Another, closer bottoming-out metric to consider, though, belongs to US financial technical analyst guru John Bollinger (also mentioned yesterday).
At these levels, maybe just a fraction south of US$20k, Bitcoin is “tagging” the bottom of his monthly timeframe BTC Bollinger Bands volatility indicator after posting a “picture perfect” double-top pattern in 2021. “This would be a logical place to put in a bottom,” he suggested.
Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F
— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022
As for the macroeconomic factors… shall we nutshell those again, too? May as well while we’re here… Crazy global inflation, 75bp Fed interest-rate hikes, Eastern European war, rising commodities, recession fears… not to mention the fact crypto is doing its best effort to implode from within.
The full crypto-contagion narrative in the wake of Terra LUNA’s collapse is still being weaved, with the likes of Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager, Babel Finance, Coinflex, Three Arrows Capital and others all reportedly having a pretty rough time of things – some more than others. Although certain bailout vultures have reportedly sharpened their beaks and are circling for some.
With the overall crypto market cap at roughly US$971 billion, down 0.8% since this time yesterday, here’s the current state of play among top 10 tokens – according to CoinGecko.
It’s been a steady-ish 24 hours of price action in the crypto majors, with BTC showing some support around US$20.5k and ETH currently trying to poke its head back above US$1,200.
In the meantime, here’s some classic bet-each-way, not-exact-science Bitcoin technical analysis from two full-time chart watchers – for your consideration…
Playing a bit of devil's advocate here. We could see some more upside as this drop has lower volume heading into support at 20500, bullish PA.
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) June 28, 2022
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 28, 2022
Sweeping a market-cap range of about US$8.6 billion to about US$405 million in the rest of the top 100, let’s find some of the biggest 24-hour gainers and losers at press time.
• 1inch (1INCH), (market cap: US$419 million) +14%
• BitTorrent (BTT), (mc: US$874 million) +12%
• ApeCoin (APE), (mc: US$1.54 billion) +8%
• TitanSwap (TITAN), (mc: US$507 million) +6%
• Tezos (XTZ), (mc: US$1.41 billion) +5%
• NEAR Protocol (NEAR), (market cap: US$2.55 billion) -6%
• Cosmos Hub (ATOM), (mc: US$2.25 billion) -6%
• The Graph (GRT), (mc: US$767 million) -6%
• Elrond (EGLD), (mc: US$1.23 billion) -5%
• Uniswap (UNI), (mc: US$2.35 billion) -5%
To finish, a selection of randomness that stuck with us on our daily journey through the Crypto Twitterverse.
Goldman Sachs downgraded their Coinbase (COIN) investment thesis to “sell” the other day. Here’s Twitter regular and “Up Only TV” podcaster Cobie’s take on that…
Goldman analysts are like “hm, might recommend a sell here, feeling bearish for some reason” after the stock already dumped 75% and the company laid off like half their staff
Thanks for the insight, wish I could do complex goldman-like analysis and be a pro investor too pic.twitter.com/UCa0ezbzRJ
— Cobie (@cobie) June 28, 2022
— naiive cat (@naiivememe) June 28, 2022
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) June 28, 2022
💥CALIFORNIA: Millions to receive $1,050 “inflation relief” cheques. 🤨
Give them $1,050 in #Bitcoin instead…
— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) June 28, 2022
Rekt in both crypto and fiat. Where does it stop? pic.twitter.com/8GgIiUV6ld
— Corleone (@corleonescrypto) June 28, 2022
Okay here’s the plan:
— 𝗴 𝗼 𝗼 𝗯 𝘆 (@goobyxbt) June 26, 2022