Emission Control: Electrification will kill the need for 5 million barrels of oil a day by 2030
Emission Control is Stockhead’s fortnightly take on all the big news surrounding developments in renewable energy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global sales of electric vehicles are set to surge to yet another record this year, expanding their share of the overall car market to close to one-fifth and leading the transformation of the auto industry that has implications for the energy sector, especially oil.
New findings of the IEA’s Global Electric Vehicle Outlook show more than 10 million electric cars were sold worldwide in 2022 and sales are expected to grow by another 35% this year to reach 14 million.
This explosive growth means electric cars’ share of the overall car market has risen from around 4% in 2020 to 14% in 2022 and is set to increase further to 18% this year, based on the latest IEA projections.
IEA’s executive director Faith Birol says the internal combustion engine has gone unrivalled for over a century, but electric vehicles are changing the status quo.
“By 2030, they will avoid the need for at least 5 million barrels a day of oil – cars are just the first wave but electric buses and trucks will follow soon.”
While three markets – China, Europe, and the US – accounted for roughly 95% of global sales in 2022, the IEA says China is by far the frontrunner with 60% of global electric car sales taking place there in 2022.
Today, more than half of all electric cars on the road worldwide are in China. Europe and the United States, the second and third largest markets, both saw strong growth with sales increasing 15% and 55% respectively in 2022.
Australia, on the other hand, accounted for about 3.8% of all new vehicle sales.
The snapshot of global uptake comes hot on the heels of Australia’s first electric vehicle strategy which plans to legislate a long awaited fuel efficiency standard designed to improve the supply of hybrid and electric vehicles for Australian buyers.
These encouraging trends are also having positive knock-on effects for battery production and supply chains, the IEA says, with the EU’s Net Zero Industry Act aiming for nearly 90% of annual battery demand to be met by domestic battery manufacturers.
Similarly, the US Inflation Reduction Act places emphasis on strengthening domestic supply chains for EVs, batteries and minerals.
Between August 2022, when the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, and March 2023, major EV and battery makers announced investments totalling at least US$52 billion in EV supply chains in North America.
The first of AGL’s three remaining units shut down at the 52-year-old Liddell coal power station in NSW’s Hunter Valley after operating at more than 300 megawatts until Sunday evening.
According to reports, Unit 4 was powered down in stages before it officially shut off site on Monday around 8.25am.
The second unit shut down on Wednesday and the third is set to wind down today, leaving NSW with just four coal-fired power stations – Eraring, Bayswater, Vales Point and Mt Piper – with experts predicting they could all be closed within a decade.
Since the confirmation of Liddell’s closure eight years ago, more renewable energy has come online than Liddell’s generation capacity, with several significant projects expected to bolster supply in the next few years.
The Liddell site itself is set to host a 250MW battery as part of AGL’s Hunter Renewables Hub.
The Government has also recently reached a landmark agreement with the states and territories to establish a Capacity Investment Scheme to drive new dispatchable capacity and ensure energy market reliability, which will unlock around $10 billion of investment in over 6GW of clean power over coming years.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen visited the Liddell power station to thank the workers who operated the Hunter Valley generator for five decades.
Meanwhile, AGL switched on its 250MWh Torrens Island battery in South for the first time this week, on the same day it closed another unit at its ageing Liddell coal power station – highlighting the exit of the dirty fuel and the transition to greener energy.
Also known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve, the Torrens Island battery features grid forming inverters which stabilise the grid by providing inertia and act as a replacement to the traditional coal and gas system.
Woodside has signed non-binding heads of agreement (HOA) to evaluate the potential supply of liquid hydrogen to Singapore from Woodside’s portfolio of planned production facilities, including its proposed H2Perth facility in Western Australia.
The HOA provides a pathway for the parties to jointly develop further commercial principles for key hydrogen supply chain agreements.
It also references the potential purchase of roughly 1000 tonnes per day of liquid hydrogen by Keppel Data Centres as early as 2030, when the parties anticipate the associated production technologies and shipping systems will reach maturity.
Woodside reckons a hydrogen supply chain will benefit Keppel’s data centre facilities, including its planned Datapark, which is envisioned to be an energy-efficient data centre park development in Singapore.
Using hydrogen instead of more carbon-intensive energy sources has the potential to reduce emissions generated by data centres.
Spar has received a research and development tax refund totalling $934,000 as part of the Australian Government’s R&D tax incentive to provide continued support for Sparc’s work on projects involving graphene, green hydrogen, and sustainable batteries.
The R&D Tax Incentive scheme is a program jointly administered by the Australian Taxation Office and AusIndustry, under which companies can receive up to a 48.5% refundable tax offset of eligible expenses on research and development activities.
“This rebate is a critical source of funding for our company and provides significant support for our research and development work in areas such as graphene-based additives and renewable energy,” SPN executive chairman Stephen Hunt said.
14D says its renewable-powered SiBox thermal energy storage system has the potential to replace a significant amount of fossil fuel consumed by global heat-related industries as they shift to electric heating.
These industries contribute around 60% of worldwide industrial CO2-emissions through their dependence on fossil fuels for heat generation.
Decarbonising high temperature processes that rely on gas presents a significant challenge. SiBox technology is specifically designed for this very high temperature market.
Recent analysis by 1414 Degrees, based on proprietary process data supplied by various industries, has revealed the SiBox technology will be competitive as a substitute for gas much earlier than anticipated due to a combination of higher gas pricing and carbon pricing.
Industries could replace gas with clean hot air up to ~1000°C by retrofitting a renewable-powered SiBox, which uniquely leverages the latent heat of silicon to deliver constant process temperature on-demand – a critical requirement for many industries.
1414 Degrees initially mapped out a five-year path to commercial viability of SiBox but increasing coal and gas prices have driven up costs for heat supply in industries globally.
As a result, SiBox’s very hot air output will be competitive earlier than anticipated.