Monsters of Rock: A lithium turnaround in 2025? Goldman Sachs isn't counting on it

Goldman Sachs and Canaccord Genuity say lithium pricing will continue to be under pressure in 2025
What does that mean for ASX stocks?
Benchmark sees 15% drop in previously forecast lithium supply in 2025, but supply growth will continue

Monsters of Rock drills deeper into the ASX’s large cap mining stocks with mining scribe Josh Chiat

Goldman Sachs was persona non grata for lithium miners a couple years ago as it called the supply glut early.

Its predictions that prices would fall from overheated highs to crippling lows turned out to be not so farfetched, with last year’s plunge in chemical prices to under US$10,000/t showing the investment bank to be on the money.

But it’s not ready to get contrarian on the other side yet.

Goldman says it is sticking to “briners over miners”, a nod for the strategy Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) has employed in its planned $10bn takeover of Arcadium Lithium (ASX:LTM), expecting existing producers to continue to take supply out of the market.

“With a number of lithium projects ramping up through 2025, and possible curtailment restarts contributing to near-term pricing ceilings, we expect lithium market softness to continue this year (in lieu of material demand upside), with existing producers likely to focus on further cost/production optimisations,” GS’ Austalian mining analysts Hugo Nicolaci, Paul Young and Isaac Brooke wrote in a note.

“We continue to expect M&A activity could remain increasingly prevalent as valuations decline with expectations for medium-term lithium pricing, and we outline our comps and regional resource maps within.”

Nicolaci et. al. say brine operators will hold a better cost curve position than hard rock producers over the medium to long term “… and the ongoing discovery of new global spodumene resources likely making many smaller/lower quality/more remote spodumene deposits less likely to be developed on a medium-term view.”

They also pointed to the growing potential of direct lithium extraction technology to open new sources of lithium, including wellfield plays backed by oil and gas majors like ExxonMobil in the United States, as well as the likely progress this year of claystone projects in the United States like Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass, supported by low cost loans from the US government.

Goldman’s ASX lithium thoughts

Goldman is buy rated on just one Aussie lithium stock, IGO (ASX:IGO), which owns a 24.9% share of the world-leading Greenbushes mine in WA’s South West but has run aground at its 49% owned Kwinana lithium hydroxide JV with Chinese partner Tianqi Lithium amid product ramp-up issues and the revelation it was struggling to find customers for the material. Trading at $5.06 currently, GS has a $6.05/sh price target on the company, which also mines nickel.

GS does not have ratings on Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS) or Arcadium, which shot up this week after Rio’s bid cleared a US foreign investment for the dual New York and ASX listed producer.

Currently trading at more than three year lows, Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) is neutral rated at 56c with a 71c price target. The Gina Rinehart backed and Tim Goyder chaired owner of the Kathleen Valley lithium mine could be in need of a top up in equity though.

“We estimate needs of ~A$100-200mn (CY25E spodumene ~US$800/t), with LTR engaging corporate debt options for available indebtedness capacity of A$100mn, though a full raise of ~A$100-200mn at a ~10-30% discount (GSe indicative range based on some recent sector raises, where LTR’s last raise represented a ~35% discount to its last close which was impacted by ALB’s proposed acquisition of the business) to current pricing could be ~2-7% dilutive to our modelled NAV (though we note further price weakness may incentivise further M&A activity)” Goldman’s analysts said.

GS is also neutral rated on Core Lithium (ASX:CXO), but notes it’s unlikely to restart the Finniss mine in the Northern Territory any time soon.

Supply could be 15% lower

That’s not to say it’s all doom and gloom for lithium.

In its 2025 prices white paper, leading critical minerals price reporting agency Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says project curtailments will cut forecast 2025 supply by 15%.

“Due to consistent low prices in 2024, some lithium producers reduced production guidance and delayed project development or expansion. Low prices particularly affected hard-rock, higher cost operations, such as spodumene and mica projects,” it says.

“Overall, the announcements amount to a 15% reduction in estimated production in 2025. Should low prices persist, more suspensions, delays, and production guideline reductions could be expected in 2025.”

Benchmark also sees more M&A on the horizon as large players look to consolidate their market share ahead of a potential price rebound. But it also expects limited movement in 2025.

“Benchmark expects limited upward or downward movement in prices in 2025, as new capacity, such as from projects in Argentina and Zimbabwe, responds to growth in downstream demand from the EV sector,” Benchmark reports.

“Argentina is actively developing lithium brine projects, and the country is expected to ramp up the production of lithium chemicals by nearly two-fold in 2025. Additionally, Zimbabwe has become a hub for hard rock project development with many Chinese companies, such as Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, currently investing there. The country is also forecast to increase lithium mine supply by nearly two-fold in 2025, according to the Benchmark Lithium Forecast.

“Overall, demand for lithium chemicals and feedstock is expected to grow by over 20% in 2025 compared to 2024. Likewise, supply is expected to grow by greater than 15%, keeping the market in a slight surplus which is likely to keep price movements limited.”

Price forecasts lower

Canaccord Genuity also sees lower battery metals prices in 2025, cutting its spodumene forecast by 15% to US$808/t, down from a previous US$950/t. The broker expects to see pricing rebound to US$1000/t in 2026 and US$1425/t in 2027, before hitting US$2000/t by 2029 and US$1500/t long term from the end of the decade.

It’s also trimmed price forecasts for a host of base metals linked to the energy transition, with copper down 12.7% to US$4.31/lb from US$4.94/lb for 2025.

That’s led to a host of price target downgrades for base metals and lithium stocks under CG’s coverage, with its Australian analysts lopping an average 7% and 13% off price targets in the sector, respectively.

It’s lowered price targets on PLS (-8% to $3.60, Buy), IGO (-7% to $4.30, Sell) and LTR (-25% to 60c, Hold), with price targets also 4% lower to $10.75 for Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR), 15% to 85c for Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC), 3% to $21.25 for MAC Copper (ASX:MAC) and 10% to 43c for Metals X (ASX:MLX). The price target for beleaguered 29Metals (ASX:29M) has been trimmed 5% to 21c despite a 45% drop in the past quarter.

At the same time, big copper producer Sandfire has been upped from a hold to a buy recommendation, CG’s key copper recommendation alongside MAC and spec buy Hillgrove Resources (ASX:HGO), which is trading at a market cap of just $111m and operates the Kanmantoo mine in South Australia.

Analysts led by Tim Hoff attributed softening base metals prices to a cautious approach from the market to proposed tariffs from incoming US President Donald Trump and the impact they could have on Chinese exports.

“Chinese stimulus talk still presents as an upside opportunity, in our view, but for now the market remains risk averse, with equities sitting at or towards lows established in 2024,” CG’s analysts say.

“Looking to 2025, we see higher uncertainty in 1H’CY25, before policy easing, stimulus and rate cuts kick in during 2H’CY25. The lithium market remains well supplied and while announced cuts will help the balance later in 2025 there is still supply being added to the market. We were positioned cautiously in our coverage universe during DecQ’24 with two Sell recommendations, four Hold recommendations and three Buy recommendations.”

The ASX 300 Metals and Mining index lifted 0.02% over the past week.

Which ASX 300 Resources stocks have impressed and depressed?

Making gains 🚀

Sims Metal Management (ASX:SGM) (metal recycling) +11.8%

Genesis Minerals (ASX:GMD) (gold) +9.7%

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) (lithium) +8.8%

West African Resources (ASX:WAF) (gold) +8.2%

Eating losses 😭

Westgold Resources (ASX:WGX)(gold) -10.7%

Sayona Mining (ASX:SYA) (lithium) -8.9%

IperionX (ASX:IPX) (titanium) -6.9%

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) (gold) -6.6%

Bellevue and Westgold were among the hardest hit ASX 300 metals and mining stocks after poorly received December production results, while fellow gold producer West African surprised to the upside with its performance.