Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting throws another $152m at Liontown in Ablemarle blocking move
Could drooping lithium prices burst the DSO bubble?
Our High Voltage column wraps the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, manganese, magnesium, and vanadium.
From what we’re seeing, there remains plenty to be excited about when it comes to the growing array of lithium stocks on the ASX and beyond.
And the huge, competitive interest in Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) from big mining cats Albemarle and Hancock is certainly one quick way to give that statement some affirmation. More on that further below.
That said, short and perhaps mid-term, the road ahead is hardly without potholes for the growing list of companies involved in the white gold rush of the past couple of years.
A high level of short-term uncertainty is a by-product of the commodity’s recent low pricing. And that’s directly tied to concerns around what is reportedly right now a weakened level of demand for electric vehicles in China – by far the world’s biggest market for such things, and many other things besides.
As noted by Stockhead resources expert Josh Chiat in this week’s Up, Up, Down, Down resources market September performance overview (although not in these specific words), the latest monthly lithium price action right now looks shakier than a newborn foal on a Tasman Sea barge.
Specifically, the monthly average spot price for September was US$27,810/t (-25.6%), while at the time of writing, October is looking more festering than festive at this stage, with a spot level of US$25,100/t.
It’s a far cry, notes Josh, from the record highs of +US$80k/t that were frothed over at the start of 2023.
Bloomberg, too, noted yesterday:
“The slump has hammered lithium producers too, with the Sprott Lithium Miners ETF tumbling to the weakest since its inception in February, and Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF plunging to the lowest since 2020.”
The media outlet also posted this stark chart:
Just a week or so ago, Macquarie Research was pondering a potential uptick in Chinese EV sales based around national holidays in the Middle Kingdom.
It wasn’t to be. Q4 is historically the time for EV sales to pick up, but huge, ongoing economic uncertainty in China is still the driving (yeah, not the best choice of words) force for the moment.
Gloomier still, Goldman Sachs analysts see lithium carbonate prices falling even further over the next 12 months:
“For the rest of the year, the fundamental focus appears to be on a seasonal uptick in Chinese EV sales, and we think any disappointment relative to historical norms could put accelerated downward pressure on prices,” they wrote in a recent note.
But wait… bones to be thrown? Silvery linings? There are some here, yes. Chiefly the good old “buying opportunity” lining so favoured by the crypto market.
There’s quite a large degree of hopium attached to the latter, however, while the battery metals market is, of course, based on things that are more recognisably tangible. Such as rocks and minerals. And batteries. And actual real-world cars that you can apparently drive – while hopefully not running over the hard-of-hearing in the process.
Josh reckons that: “Despite a massive 25% drop in lithium chemical pricing in September, M & A activity continues virtually unabated.
“In one sense lower equity valuations for lithium stocks based on the price drop could open the potential for even more takeover action.
“And companies remain less than shy about meeting target aspirations when it comes to price.”
Meanwhile, demand growth over the next decade should support long-term prices, believes Wilsons Advisory, and BloombergNEF says it expects “global demand for lithium to grow nearly five times by the end of the decade”.
But wait, anything else to be slightly concerned about?
A DSO operations spanner in the works?
It remains to be seen if/or how many, lithium producers making DSO (Direct Shipping Ore) their current MO will pivot away from the model, but it appears Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR) is shelving its DSO plans for now in the face of the lithium spot price slump.
In an ASX announcement on September 29, Liontown, regarding its Kathleen Valley lithium project production, noted:
“With lithium prices softening, the Company is now planning to ore sort the DSO and add it to our stockpile to be processed by our own plant in the future. However, the Company retains the option to sell this DSO material if market conditions improve.”
Throwing some further positive spin on that, the company added:
“The DSO crushing and sorting programme will also assist in the design of a potential large-scale sorting circuit which could support the planned 4 Mtpa process plant expansion.”
Back in August, ahead of the Diggers and Dealers Mining Forum in Kalgoorlie, Global Lithium Resources (ASX:GL1) mentioned that it sees DSO as an attractive opportunity to churn out early cash flow while the market is buoyant, anticipating it can generate value at benchmark prices upwards of US$2500/t 6% Li2O spodumene.
In more conducive economic circumstances, the DSO model is an attractive means for lithium projects to keep cash flow coming and hit shareholder-appeasing scheduling by shipping out unprocessed ore to China, thus taking advantage of the lithium commodity price when it’s high.
Rinehart drops another $152m on Liontown
Speaking of Liontown, there’s been some more movement at the station on this increasingly complicated mega-merger involving Albemarle and, more recently, Hancock Prospecting.
Playing hardball, Gina Rinehart has bunged another great wad of cash into more LTR shares. A spare $152m she, via Hancock Prospecting, had lying around or in a very large cookie jar, possibly.
What her company has potentially now achieved, then, is a blocking stake in LTR, which could end up roiling the massive $6.6bn Albemarle takeover of Liontown.
Per The Australian:
This brings Hancock’s stake in the takeover target to 14.67 per cent, which it is understood could be enough to stymie US battery chemical giant Albemarle’s $6.6bn bid for Liontown, which would need a 75 per cent acceptance of votes cast in favour.
Hancock has not signalled whether it intends to launch a full takeover bid for Liontown, but has made it clear it believes it should at the least be a partner in the company’s flagship lithium project, saying its expertise in bringing large projects online would mitigate the risks still to be navigated in bringing Liontown’s Kathleen Valley mine into production.
Albemarle, meanwhile, is nearing the end of its due diligence on Liontown.
Regarding those Liontown production risks, Hancock’s repeatedly pointed references to them comes after a cost update that lifted Liontown’s Kathleen Valley costs by $56m to $951m.
As Josh wrote on Monday:
“Hancock is largely stating the obvious when it comes to its warnings about project execution, and Albemarle is already under the hood.
“What it does show is the majors and established players of the resources market are keeping a keener and closer eye on the formerly niche lithium sector, even if prices are in a spot right now.”
And speaking of established players, The Australian‘s Business Editor Cameron England speculated the following:
“There is also the prospect of Chris Ellison’s Mineral Resources joining the fray, as it did in the takeover battle for Warrego Energy earlier this year, where it eventually tipped a 19.9 per cent blocking stake into Hancock’s offer, getting it over the line.
“MinRes has not made a move as yet, however it would make strategic sense to collaborate.”
Here’s a snapshot of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, magnesium, manganese, and vanadium are performing lately>>>
Battery metals stocks missing from our list? Shoot a mail to [email protected].
Alderan Resources (ASX:AL8) made an update on the seven lithium exploration projects it’s acquiring in the mineral resource rich state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. It published a due diligence (legal) update on the projects, as well as noting project site visits are underway.
Nimy Resources (ASX:NIM) has noted its intersected 13m of massive sulphide mineralisation in total, containing pyrrhotite, pentlandite, chalcopyrite and pyrite in RC drilling at its Mons nickel project.
Galan Lithium (ASX:GLN) has released the Phase 2 definitive feasibility study for its Hombre Muerto West project in Argentina, which delivers a 286% increase in production to 20,851t LCE, and improves NPV 8 and IRR to US$2bn and 43% for additional Capex of US$278m. (Read more on this in our special report here.)
And Patriot Lithium (ASX:PAT) has appointed Hugh Warner as non-executive chairman and Chris Hilbrands as joint company secretary, both of whom were founding directors and/or executives of Prospect Resources (ASX:PSC).
The Fitz factor
Hold on, before we get out of here and recharge for something else… it’s always well worth paying attention to what our ‘Garimpeiro’ columnist Barry FitzGerald is looking at in this resources sub-sector.
Following on from his recent good call on junior lithium stock Bulletin Resources (ASX:BNR), Barry’s latest profile subject Leeuwin Metals (ASX:LM1) is up 23.5% over the past week, on nothing particularly newsworthy or fresh.
Hell, let’s just put it down to the Fitz factor then, shall we?
The Glencore backed nickel and lithium explorer is among the throng hunting battery metals in Canada – no, not in Quebec’s James Bay, but in the territory of Manitoba.
There, it’s focused on the Cross Lake lithium project, which includes an area that’s been dubbed “Spodumene Island”, along with the William Lake nickel sulphide project.
It’s all pretty chin-stroking stuff. Writes Barry…
“Garimpeiro has continued his relentless search for lithium explorers with tight capital bases. If a nickel project, and exposure to a rare earths hot spot are thrown in as part of the bargain, then all the better.”
At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Lithium Universe, Pioneer Lithium, Altech Batteries, Future Battery Minerals, Galan Lithium and Patriot Lithium are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.
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