Rising Aussie house prices make it 5 months in a row; Sydney values ease as everyone tries to sell out
It’s now been five straight months of Aussie house price rises AND the central bank just left interest rates out in the yard to dry off for a stunning second month.
What a time to be alive.
CoreLogic’s Remorseless Research Director, Tim (the) Lawless (one) said that since bottoming out around February, CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) rose another 0.7% in July.
The go-to CoreLogic home price index is now ahead by 4.1%, following a breathless 14 or so months where we looked on as prices collapsed by well over -9% from the ongoing record highs last touched off on April 2022.
Now, nationally, home values remain more than 5% (5.3%) below that April 2022 peak, and although housing values are continuing to record a broad-based rise, Lawless says the ‘rate of growth has lost momentum over the past two months.’
It’s slowed from 1.2% in May.
The heroes of the dish remain Perth, Adelaide AND Regional South Australia which scored a new cyclical high in dwelling values through July. Because – no houses, more people*.
(ED: *That’s the writer’s POV)
Back to Mnsr Tim Lawless, who aims the oxymoronic ice pick of slowing rises at easy-to-kick capital of fun, Sydney.
“After leading the upswing, the monthly pace of growth in Sydney housing values has halved from a recent high of 1.8% in May to 0.9% in July.
Sydney has also seen a significant rise in the number of fresh listings added to the market, 9.9% higher than the same time last year and 18.0% above the previous five-year average. An increased flow of new listings provides more choice and may be working to reduce some of the urgency felt among prospective buyers.”
Whatevs Tim, it’s still got the Coogee Bay Hotel and everywhere else does not.
According to CL data, Bris Vegas (Brisbane) and Aaaaadeeelaaaaiidee (Adelaide) saw the monthly pace of growth accelerate in July. Gains across these capitals were up 1.4%, the fastest of the state caps.
But while new listings are up in these bush-like quasi-cities, Mnsr Lawless says new places up for grabs ‘remains well below’ levels from a year ago and the previous five-year average.
Canberra was the only “capital city” to record a decline in values in July, down -0.1%.
In Hobart – where nothing changes – the values were unchanged.
“The slowdown in value growth has mostly been driven by an easing in gains across the upper quartile of the market,” CoreLogic says, a little confusingly – but basically suggesting top price houses and flats didn’t go for their usual very toppy prices.
“Some resilience in growth across the middle and more affordable end of the market aligns with housing finance data which has shown a stronger bounce back in the value of lending to first home buyers and investors over recent months,” Mnsr Lawless reckons.
“These segments tend to be more active across the middle to lower end of the pricing range where competition to purchase a home may be more intense.
“Premium housing markets tend to lead the cycles, so the slowdown in the pace of growth could be a sign of a broader easing in the pace of growth over the coming months.”
Regional values continued to lag capitals with the combined regionals index rising 0.2% in July compared with a 0.8% increase across the combined capitals index.
Every rest-of-state region had a smaller change in dwelling values through July relative to the capital city, reflecting the fact there’s less of a rush to the bush across bushy Australia as demographic patterns get all normal.
It’s all Gold Coast and then a little bit of Tassie
The largest rise in regional housing values over the three months ending July (based on SA4 regions) has been the Gold Coast (4.0%), the South East region of Tasmania (3.1%), and the Newcastle/Lake Macquarie region (3.0%).
On the flipside, the weakest conditions over the rolling quarter were confined to areas of Regional Victoria, with Bendigo (-3.7%) recording the largest decline, followed by Shepparton (-2.3%) and the Warrnambool/South West region (-2.3%).
As if you wouldn’t want to snap up a holiday house in Shepparton. C’mon Aussie.
The flow of new listings added to the capital city housing market lifted by 3.9% over the four weeks ending July 30, bucking the usual seasonal trend where new listings would generally reduce through winter. Most of the capitals have recorded a rise in the number of fresh listings through July.
Of course, Sydney was the only city where the flow of fresh stock to market was higher than a year ago (+9.9%). It is a nice place to live if you’re flush.
Mnsr Lawless surmises there may be a few reasons why sellers are getting feisty at a time that is normally seasonally subdued.
“The flow of new listings has held at below average levels since September last year.
“With total stock levels still low and selling conditions reasonably strong, it may be the case that more home owners are picking current market conditions as a good time to sell, rather than waiting until spring when stock levels might be higher, creating more competition among vendors.
“Another possibility is that we are seeing the first signs of motivated selling as the rapid rate hiking cycle catches up with household balance sheets.”
Although new listings have trended higher, overall capital city advertised stock levels remain low, tracking -18.3% below the same time last year and -23.3% below the previous five-year average.
“The fact that total stock levels are still trending lower implies demand is keeping up with the increased flow of new listings coming to market,” Mnsr Lawless added.
Total listings were holding below the previous five-year average across every capital city.
Except Hobart. Which has not changed.