Monster or Mouse: Gold miners joined the big leagues as TEN ASX stocks became Monsters of Rock in 2024

Ten ASX resources stocks entered our Monsters of Rock club in 2024, with valuations rising above $500m
But 13 fell out as ASX metals and mining stocks suffered again last year
Gold miners and mining contractors were the top performers, while lithium led the dropouts

To say it was a tough run for mining companies in 2024 was an understatement.

As equity markets, led by banks and tech stocks, set new records across the globe, the materials sector lagged as a host of commodities came off the boil.

To the close of trade on December 27, the last completed trading week of 2024, the ASX 300 mining and metals sector – comprising 57 of the largest resources and energy names on the ASX – tumbled a collective 18% for the year.

Banks, on the flipside, were up over 37%, while the ASX 200 was up over 8%. That’s prevented the upward mobility seen in junior miners and explorers.

Back in 2021 in the midst of an epic mining bull market powered by rising lithium, iron ore, nickel and copper prices, 13 companies joined our Monsters of Rock club, lifting to a market cap of over $500m.

That was more than double the number of companies who, excluding those delisted through takeovers, fell off the list. 2022 was more difficult, with eight in and 14 out. Ten companies rose above $500m with 17 falling out in 2023.

2024 was another year of falling valuations across the mining sector, with 10 firms swimming against the tide to move beyond $500m, while soft prices across virtually every commodity outside gold and silver sent 13 firms the wrong way. Six of those, unsurprisingly, were advanced lithium miners or explorers.

So who were those impressive explorers and miners who bucked the trend and delivered a blueprint for other emerging miners to follow?

Look no further.

CATALYST METALS (ASX:CYL)

MARKET CAP: $588m
% CHANGE: +225%
COMMODITY: Gold

Half of this year’s new monsters are in gold, which is unsurprising given the precious metal lifted close to 30% this year, briefly touching all time highs of close to US$2800/oz in late October before the US Election threw a spanner in the works.

Exploration is a slow process, especially greenfields, and the best way to grow right now in gold is to get aggressive and take over the yard.

The fastest growing dog this year has been Catalyst Metals, which has grown in leaps and bounds since Aussie gold royalty James Champion de Crespigny – the son of former Normandy Mining boss Robert – came on board as managing director two years ago.

The one-two punch landed by CYL were the respective acquisitions of Vango Mining and Superior Gold in January and February 2023, which turned the obscure Victorian gold explorer and operator of the high cost Henty gold mine in Tasmania into a significant West Australian gold name virtually overnight.

CYL last month paid off all of the $36 million of debt picked up after the acquisitions closed in July last year, leveraging record gold prices to post a maiden $24m after tax profit last financial year on 110,000oz of gold production.

Within three years it plans to almost double that, largely via its Plutonic gold operation near Meekatharra, where CYL will spend $31 million to develop three new mines called Plutonic East, K2 and Trident, with mining at the former to start in Q1 2025.

Taking a page out of the book of WA gold success stories like Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) – a former owner of Plutonic – CYL has six exploration drill rigs set to the task of completing a mammoth 180,000m drilling program in the region.

It’s already found some intriguing results from step out drilling at the Hermes prospect, including a strike of 16m at 10.6g/t near four open puts that previously delivered a modest 65,000oz at 1.3g/t.

ORA BANDA (ASX:OBM)

MARKET CAP: $1.23bn
% CHANGE: +162%
COMMODITY: Gold

When mining engineer and former Northern Star Resources COO Luke Creagh arrived at Ora Banda in July 2022 he had a staggeringly large task ahead of him.

Ora Banda was operating a gold mine, Davyhurst, renowned for being a graveyard for previous miners and explorers.

The company had just been dumped from the All Ordinaries index and was trading at a share price of just 3c.

It’s up 22 times over since then, helped by a rising gold price but also a change in strategy, targeting higher margin ounces from underground and directing capital to exploration in a bid to deliver a step change in resource and reserve visibility.

From just 60,928oz in FY22, OBM upped output to 69,932oz in FY24 but is in the process of delivering a major uplift to 100-110,000oz at all in sustaining costs of $1975-2125/oz in FY25.

By FY26, the company plans to produce 150,000ozpa at what would be extremely low costs by modern standards of $1740-1890/oz.

First ore was delivered from the key Sand King underground development in December. The mine will ramp up to 60,000ozpa by June 2025.

IPERIONX (ASX:IPX)

MARKET CAP: $1.76bn
% CHANGE: +299%
COMMODITY: Titanium

Jointly listed on the Nasdaq, IPX has flown curiously under the radar this year despite inking a gain of close to 300% as the titanium hopeful progressed plans to produce its first titanium powder in the United States.

Filtered through the narrative of government support for domestic mining and manufacturing in the United States, the company has acquired a string of refining technologies to produce what it thinks will be cleaner, greener titanium products in the country at its Virginia plant.

Using scrap material, the company has produced what it says is its first commercial-scale hydrogen-assisted titanium, having completed the fit out of its “advanced manufacturing facility” to produce semi-finished titanium mill products and near-net-shape forged components.

It plans to begin supplying manufactured titanium components to the value of US$11mpa to auto giant Ford from 2025.

On top of that, IPX is also the owner of a proprietary “green rutile” process, which promises to produce synthetic rutile from low grade titanium dioxide feedstocks without using the coal and energy intensive Becher Process.

Synthetic rutile produced with Becher, used for instance at Iluka Resources’ operations in WA’s South West, can produce synthetic rutile and titanium slag at an average 3.3t and 2t CO2 per tonne of product.

Regal Funds-backed IperionX also owns the Titan mineral sands project in Tennessee, which it says is the largest JORC compliant resource of titanium mineral sands in the USA.

PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY (ASX:PDI)

MARKET CAP: $552m
% CHANGE: +20%
COMMODITY: Gold

PDI entered the ASX 300 in March, capping a major turnaround after regulatory concerns back in 2021 took the wind out of the gold explorer’s sales.

It is now on major M&A watch, after a PFS that included a more than 3 million ounce reserve at the Bankan gold project could underpin what would be Guinea’s largest gold mine, producing 269,0000ozpa over a period of 12 years.

The next step is to progress environmental permitting for the project, which is located within the peripheral zone of the Upper Niger National Park.

Whether it’s PDI that actually gets to complete that step remains to be seen. $3.5 billion capped gold miner Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), which produces over 500,000ozpa from three mines in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana and was sitting on over $1bn in cash and bullion at September 30, this year piled in for a 19.9% stake.

That’s the limit before a shareholder has to declare a takeover if it wants to boost its stake further. PRU said it had no intention to acquire control or make a takeover offer for Predictive after its last share purchase.

But as the permitting picture becomes clearer a bid gets more likely. PRU is planning to build the slightly smaller Nyanzaga project in Tanzania, but has plenty of powder for Bankan as it looks to replace production from the ageing Edikan and Sissingue mines.

The securing of the critical exploitation permit for Bankan, which has a larger resource of ~5.4Moz, was targeted for the end of 2024 but is yet to materialise.

SOUTHERN CROSS GOLD (ASX:SXG)

MARKET CAP: $772m
% CHANGE: +171%
COMMODITY: Gold/antimony

Southern Cross Gold was part of one of 2024’s biggest mining stories, the rise of the antimony sector on the ASX.

The small, bespoke market is largely concentrated in China, Russia and Tajikistan, with export controls of the defence critical mineral, also a key component in mobile phone touchscreens and solar panels, sending prices soaring.

Up around 300% this year, the moves have western economies scrambling for sources of supply. It remains early stages, but SXG thinks around 20% of the in-ground value at its Sunday Creek project just an hour north of Melbourne will be in the critical metal.

The nearby Costerfield gold mine is currently Australia’s only supplier of the commodity. SXG’s run came off the back of a hatful of developments around Sunday Creek, an historic gold field mined in the early 1900s in what is termed geologically as the “Melbourne Zone” of the Lachlan Fold Belt.

$770 million is a big valuation for a pre-resource explorer.

A conceptual exploration target early in 2024 of 4.4-5.1Mt at 7.2-9.7g/t AuEq set the tone, with SXG expecting to eventually deliver a resource of 1-1.6Moz AuEq, including 740,000-1.28Moz of gold metal.

A string of high-grade discoveries have been made in drilling, but the question remains how the various lodes, described as rungs on a ladder, report to a resource along with the uncertainties of the Victorian permitting process.

Around 60,000m of diamond drilling is still being undertaken in a six rig campaign set to continue until Q3 next year.

The clean-up of a convoluted structure that saw around half of SXG controlled by TSX-listed Mawson Gold is also being sewn up after shareholders approved a scheme that will combine the firms with listings on both the ASX and TSX.

SRG GLOBAL (ASX:SRG)

MARKET CAP: $800m
% CHANGE: +93%
COMMODITY: Mining services

While gold was the standout market in the resources space in 2024, give or take some antimony at the speccy end, mining services firms had a ripper run on some strong earnings results.

Costs and commodity prices may be crippling some miners, especially in battery metals, contractors who can pivot to commodities with better prospects along with civil work have been able to up their rates and margins on the back of the last boom.

M&A to consolidate the sector and reduce competition has also helped. SRG grew substantially with its acquisition of Diona in August, adding $1bn to its work in hand to a record $3bn.

After ramping up EBITDA bv 23% to $98.5m in FY24 – more than doubling dividends in three years from 2c in FY21 to 4.5c a share in FY24 in the process – SRG has guided FY25 EBITDA of $125m.

SRG isn’t the only contractor which enjoyed a big 2024. Perenti (ASX:PRN), owner of the Ausdrill, DDH1 and Barminco mining services business, was up 35%, while Austin Engineering (ASX:ANG) enjoyed a near 60% rise. NRW Holdings (ASX:NWH) ran 30% higher and Emeco Holdings (ASX:EHL) gained 37%, just missing out on Monsters of Rock inclusion.

It’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Lycopodium (ASX:LYL), MLG Oz (ASX:MLG) and Monadelphous Group (ASX:MND) were all in the red.

MACMAHON GROUP (ASX:MAH)

MARKET CAP: $754m
% CHANGE: +84%
COMMODITY: Mining services

Another mining services player, MAH added underground capability with the acquisition of Pit N Portal contracts and employees and paid $104m cash to lift its civil business with the acquisition of Decmil.

It finished FY24 with an order book of $4.6bn, since grown to $5bn, after more than doubling free cash generation to $74.5m in the last financial year, though statutory profit after tax dropped 7.8% from $57.7m to $53.2m.

MAH lifted its dividend payout by 40% to 1.05c per share for the half year and full year combined and has set guidance for revenue of $2.4-2.5bn and underlying EBIT(A) of $160-175m in FY25.

Underlying EBIT(A) was $140.3m in 2024, a record and 20.3% higher than FY23. Underlying NPAT was 35.9% higher at $91.9m, with Macmahon impacted by $31.8m in impairments made after the collapse of gold mining client Calidus Resources, which is due for a revival after creditors approved a DOCA from Mark Creasy.

PANTORO (ASX:PNR)

MARKET CAP: $587m
% CHANGE: +50%
COMMODITY: Gold

Has Pantoro finally cracked the code at the beleaguered Norseman gold mine?

Long a poisoned chalice for its operators, the Goldfields mine has had no shortage of false dawns since its shuttering in 2014, when it was at the time Australia’s longest continuing gold operation.

The former Western Mining Corporation asset was consolidated under the sole ownership of PNR after its merger with Kevin Maloney’s Tulla Resources in 2023.

Since March 2023, production has lifted sequentially, hitting 71,370oz for FY24 and 20,805oz for the June quarter.

In September that lifted again to 21,374oz at all in sustaining costs of $2395/oz, supporting EBITDA for the three months of $32.5m, lifting the miner’s cash on hand by $8.5m.

Pantoro is currently trying to expand its underground ounces, drilling to unlock higher grade resources at depth beneath the Scotia pit, while on the corporate side it entered an agreement with Commonwealth Bank to protect the downside on 24% of its assumed 100,000oz 2025 production.

PNR has also hedged diesel contracts at recent prices to try lock in margins ahead of 2025.

FIREFLY METALS (ASX:FFM)

MARKET CAP: $513m
% CHANGE: +43%
COMMODITY: Copper

Formerly known as AuTECO Minerals, Firefly emerged from the rubble of a weak capital market thanks to its prominent leadership and a well-timed move into copper.

It nailed down the acquisition of the Green Bay copper and gold project in October 2023, creating one of only a handful of pure-play copper development stories on the ASX.

The $65 million deal, comprising a mix of cash and shares with $7.5m of each deferred, came as Steve Parsons, former managing director of WA gold success story Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) took the reins as MD.

His star power, and that of fellow ex-BGL man Michael Naylor, which brought FFM firmly into the well-followed Richardson Street Group of companies, was just one part of the story.

The other was drilling success, which has seen FFM enhance the resource at Green Bay – located in Newfoundland in Southeast Canada – by 42% to 1.2Mt at a copper equivalent grade of 2%. Recent drilling at the Ming deposit, near where a larger, closer processing plant has already been earmarked to be built following the failures of previous operators to optimise the site, has hit even higher grades at depth.

That included a hit of 86m at 3.7% CuEq (3.1% copper metal, 0.6g/t gold), which led to a 13% gain on a single day in early December.

RBC put a $1.55 price target on FFM back in November, implying 74% upside still to its share price after a terrific 2024.

“Yes, the prior owners of Green Bay went into administration but in our view, the issues are solvable and some have already been resolved,” RBC analyst Paul Wiggers de Vries told clients in his initiation note.

“The key issues, in our view, for the prior owners were transport costs, unit costs and lack of drilling/forward planning. FireFly has already started rectifying these issues.”

BANNERMAN ENERGY (ASX:BMN)

MARKET CAP: $500m
% CHANGE: +4%
COMMODITY: Uranium

Bannerman has held its ground in a broader uranium equities market that has been whacked from pillar to post as spot prices have underperformed lofty expectations and existing producers have struggled with their ramp ups.

Market leaders Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) and Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) fell over 40% and 20% this year, while Peninsula Energy (ASX:PEN) dropped ~33%.

The more advanced Lotus Resources (ASX:LOT) tumbled 37%, though Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL), which delayed a decision to approve its Tumas development until March after upping its estimate of incentive pricing to US$100/lb, was slightly up.

Bannerman owns the Etango project in the yellowcake heartland of Namibia, where it is planning a 3.5Mlbpa operation.

That could be expanded after five years of running to 6.7Mlbpa, taking all in sustaining costs down from US$45.3/lb U3O8 to US$42.5/lb.

An $85 million raising gave the company plenty of headroom to work through a final investment decision, with early works already underway at Etango.

The first blast of the primary crusher site for its future process plant has been completed, with detailed engineering on the process facilities advancing, and the manufacture high pressure grinding rolls for its tertiary crusher currently “running ahead of schedule”.

“We continue to exercise a gated approach to Etango development, with phased green lighting of various construction works in-line with advancement across broader project workstreams and financial capacity,” Bannerman CEO Gavin Chamberlain said in December.

“This enables us to maintain critical path timelines whilst also allowing robust management of execution and market risks.”

While uranium spot surged to US$107/lb in January, a 17-year high, they have since fallen back to US$70/lb. But the term price, which better reflects traditional market activity, was still at decade long highs of US$81.50/lb in November.

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Ora Banda Mining is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.