• Battery supply will not meet demand until 2023, under Wood Mackenzie’s base case (most likely) scenario
  • Global battery manufacturers are responding with massive expansion plans
  • Major ASX movers this week: Australian Vanadium, Latin Resources, Ardea Resources

 Our High Voltage column wraps all the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, manganese, magnesium, and vanadium.

 

Raw material shortages and a thriving electric vehicle sector means battery supply will not meet demand until 2023, under Wood Mackenzie’s base case (most likely) scenario.

The electric vehicle (EV) market accounts for almost 80% of lithium-ion battery demand, Wood Mackenzie consultant Jiayue Zheng says.

“The lithium-ion battery market already encountered shortages last year due to thriving EV market demand and rising raw material prices,” Zheng says.

“Under our base case scenario, we project that battery supply will not meet demand until 2023.”

 

Battery capacity about to explode

Global battery manufacturers are responding with massive expansion plans, taking total capacity to more than 5,500 GWh by 2030 across 300 manufacturing facilities.

That’s a five-fold increase on 2021 levels, WoodMac says, with Europe making the biggest gains and eating into China’s market share.

“The Asia Pacific region, led by China, accounted for 90% of the world’s battery manufacturing in 2021,” Zheng says.

“By the end of decade, the region is expected to reduce its share to 69%.

“While North America’s cell capacity could expand 10-fold by 2030, it still lags Europe which is on track to overtake North America in 2022 and will account for over 20% of global capacity by 2030 through more rapid expansion.”

The top 15 manufacturers by planned capacity put into operation a total of about 200 GWh in 2021, and the cumulative capacity reached 600 GWh.

Meanwhile, 3,000 GWh of capacity is at the planning or construction stage. WoodMac expects many more new plant announcements in 2022.

Important to note that for years, battery metals miners and analysts have adjusted their demand projections regularly to the upside.

One example:

This was big call from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence boss Simon Moores at the time, being October last year.

And yet prices in China were up around $US70,000/t mid March 2022, with no downside in sight.

 

LFP to beat NCM by 2028

Another trend to watch is the growing prominence of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries as nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries lose market share, WoodMac says.

“Historically, the EV and energy storage system markets have mostly deployed NCM batteries given their availability and maturity,” Zheng says.

“In 2021, NCM still accounted for half of the market share.

“However, LFP batteries began tapping into the market with competitive cost, long lifecycle, and high safety performance, making them an attractive option for both power and energy applications.

“Wood Mackenzie projects that LFP’s market share will surpass NCM in 2028.”

 

Battery Metals Winners and Losers

Here’s how a basket of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, magnesium, manganese, and vanadium is performing>>>

Battery metals stocks missing from our list? Shoot a friendly mail to [email protected]

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK RETURN % 1 MONTH RETURN % 6 MONTH RETURN % 1 YEAR RETURN % SHARE PRICE MARKET CAP
AVL Aust Vanadium 66% 71% 152% 123% 0.058 $194,712,384.99
LRS Latin Resources 51% 63% 48% 15% 0.062 $99,494,478.81
ARL Ardea Resources 43% 52% 186% 150% 1.205 $205,140,704.12
GL1 Global Lithium 36% 55% 500% 0% 2.31 $336,217,817.78
ARR American Rare Earths 35% 35% 186% 410% 0.5 $176,919,221.25
ESS Essential Metals 33% 30% 118% 300% 0.48 $108,695,137.52
CLA Celsius Resource 32% -7% 9% -44% 0.025 $30,536,644.20
LKE Lake Resources 31% 81% 218% 390% 1.64 $2,007,363,046.18
WR1 Winsome Resources 30% 19% 0% 0% 0.46 $61,851,597.24
AQD Ausquest 29% 22% 29% 5% 0.022 $17,328,133.68
ARU Arafura Resources 29% 33% 83% 36% 0.265 $372,100,159.68
EUR European Lithium 26% 17% 35% 80% 0.1225 $143,985,549.88
RNU Renascor Resources 23% 18% 141% 160% 0.325 $552,046,777.91
RGL Riversgold 21% 77% 64% -4% 0.046 $16,727,274.90
AGY Argosy Minerals 20% 29% 171% 320% 0.42 $523,630,558.68
IPX Iperionx 20% 29% 4% 32% 1.17 $153,437,340.10
1MC Morella Corporation 19% 52% -49% -49% 0.032 $165,638,847.55
MLS Metals Australia 18% 96% 125% 125% 0.09 $27,868,463.32
AVZ AVZ Minerals 18% 28% 276% 372% 1.015 $3,279,459,926.00
INR Ioneer 17% -5% -12% 31% 0.5575 $1,139,348,877.46
CXO Core Lithium 17% 56% 206% 433% 1.225 $2,106,345,464.21
LTR Liontown Resources 17% 24% 37% 358% 1.8475 $3,836,394,096.50
ALY Alchemy Resource 17% 27% 2% -5% 0.014 $12,380,483.57
CMX Chemxmaterials 17% 5% 0% 0% 0.21 $9,963,261.47
NC1 Nicoresourceslimited 17% 20% 0% 0% 0.74 $65,437,501.50
TMT Technology Metals 16% 23% -1% 5% 0.395 $82,482,862.95
WMG Western Mines 16% 46% 38% 0% 0.255 $7,143,337.50
LPI Lithium Pwr Int 16% 16% 153% 153% 0.695 $237,163,496.64
LEL Lithenergy 15% 5% 80% 0% 0.98 $43,875,000.00
AZL Arizona Lithium 15% 15% 297% 288% 0.155 $319,642,632.80
AZL Arizona Lithium 15% 15% 297% 288% 0.155 $319,642,632.80
JRL Jindalee Resources 15% 13% 33% 90% 3.2 $164,476,056.64
COB Cobalt Blue 15% 62% 145% 96% 0.785 $239,798,814.84
GME GME Resources 14% 24% 34% 25% 0.082 $47,519,260.96
STM Sunstone Metals 14% 5% 337% 493% 0.083 $183,640,720.28
AAJ Aruma Resources 13% -7% -2% 66% 0.093 $15,382,227.29
AX8 Accelerate Resources 13% 9% 31% -11% 0.051 $12,166,027.15
ASN Anson Resources 13% 8% 41% 37% 0.13 $122,567,913.60
KFM Kingfisher Mining 13% 13% 37% 4% 0.26 $8,561,250.25
WIN Widgienickellimited 13% 49% 0% 0% 0.52 $128,750,000.00
NVA Nova Minerals 13% -23% -50% -58% 0.695 $123,438,565.23
QPM Queensland Pacific 13% -2% -36% 62% 0.1525 $239,182,535.31
MNS Magnis Energy Tech 13% 9% 57% 55% 0.48 $449,090,177.99
RAS Ragusa Minerals 13% 8% -11% -11% 0.07 $9,424,337.25
JMS Jupiter Mines. 13% 26% 23% -8% 0.265 $519,132,623.75
PEK Peak Rare Earths 13% -5% -7% -21% 0.755 $154,848,425.27
QXR Qx Resources Limited 13% 66% 425% 294% 0.063 $51,513,463.90
LPD Lepidico 13% 13% 44% 38% 0.036 $212,583,750.36
GLN Galan Lithium 13% 13% 62% 235% 1.575 $464,591,530.14
RR1 Reach Resources 13% 13% 0% 145% 0.009 $14,346,112.18
NIC Nickel Mines Limited 12% -4% 36% -7% 1.29 $3,331,402,117.98
ENV Enova Mining Limited 12% -5% -17% -46% 0.019 $6,434,518.04
CHR Charger Metals 12% 4% 35% 0% 0.715 $23,283,523.12
IXR Ionic Rare Earths 12% 20% 97% 18% 0.067 $242,173,865.49
JRV Jervois Global 12% 20% 77% 81% 0.8425 $1,246,195,788.02
WCN White Cliff Min 12% 4% 123% 53% 0.029 $18,217,539.17
SRL Sunrise 11% 27% 43% -2% 2.34 $216,138,909.60
BEM Blackearth Minerals 11% 11% -9% -16% 0.1225 $33,793,277.75
GED Golden Deeps 11% -17% -17% 0% 0.01 $7,758,514.40
GW1 Greenwing Resources 11% -8% 0% -13% 0.305 $34,260,550.24
BKT Black Rock Mining 11% -2% 42% 104% 0.255 $213,710,442.65
LOT Lotus Resources 10% 51% 32% 124% 0.37 $351,369,263.16
SYR Syrah Resources 10% 5% 34% 30% 1.485 $923,401,500.36
INF Infinity Lithium 10% 0% 28% -16% 0.16 $62,224,416.15
VUL Vulcan Energy 10% 15% -28% 56% 10.105 $1,369,108,936.00
GMC Gulf Manganese Corp 10% 10% 10% 10% 0.0055 $27,017,241.66
AVW Avira Resources 10% -8% -8% -21% 0.0055 $11,653,345.00
TNG TNG Limited 10% 6% -15% -31% 0.069 $98,577,693.76
KTA Krakatoa Resources 10% 2% -31% -27% 0.046 $14,440,785.93
FGR First Graphene 9% -3% -3% -27% 0.175 $94,088,567.54
LSR Lodestar Minerals 9% 20% 20% 9% 0.012 $19,122,810.83
NMT Neometals 9% 38% 100% 362% 1.8 $967,884,338.94
CAI Calidus Resources 9% 31% 70% 113% 0.935 $376,147,702.48
QEM QEM Limited 9% 12% 27% 27% 0.19 $20,416,199.94
EGR Ecograf Limited 8% 1% -22% -15% 0.575 $263,445,073.52
GSR Greenstone Resources 8% 3% 56% 95% 0.039 $35,741,693.87
ADV Ardiden 8% 0% 0% -38% 0.013 $34,588,350.63
CNJ Conico 8% 8% -78% -63% 0.013 $12,002,578.49
EFE Eastern Resources 8% -7% 27% 457% 0.052 $49,485,425.30
KAI Kairos Minerals 8% 8% -10% 4% 0.027 $51,014,430.77
AS2 Askarimetalslimited 8% 30% 140% 0% 0.48 $18,874,362.38
PLS Pilbara Min 8% 2% 43% 181% 2.995 $8,543,514,133.91
RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 8% 0% -7% 4% 0.028 $14,805,645.21
GSM Golden State Mining 8% -2% -38% -40% 0.084 $6,480,862.83
GT1 Greentechnology 7% 5% 0% 0% 0.8 $86,920,000.00
MQR Marquee Resource 7% -9% 57% 69% 0.105 $21,423,857.60
WKT Walkabout Resources 7% -8% 20% 66% 0.24 $108,546,026.88
ILU Iluka Resources 6% -4% 21% 62% 10.85 $4,464,007,561.26
EVR Ev Resources 6% -6% 70% 46% 0.051 $45,373,219.48
EMT Emetals Limited 6% 0% -11% -51% 0.017 $13,600,000.00
VML Vital Metals Limited 6% 11% -12% -31% 0.052 $216,605,120.37
PAM Pan Asia Metals 6% 0% 15% 238% 0.54 $38,302,494.88
HNR Hannans 6% 3% 21% 355% 0.036 $93,825,773.14
SYA Sayona Mining 6% 50% -3% 364% 0.18 $1,242,397,836.75
S2R S2 Resources 6% -3% 91% 6% 0.18 $64,147,473.90
PSC Prospect Res 6% 7% 151% 417% 0.905 $381,694,904.15
POS Poseidon Nick 6% 3% -4% 52% 0.093 $281,884,276.39
A8G Australasian Metals 5% 0% 45% 0% 0.5 $19,683,542.06
MLX Metals X Limited 5% 17% 110% 186% 0.6725 $603,331,934.56
EMN Euromanganese 5% -12% -18% -37% 0.42 $114,501,275.47
EMH European Metals Hldg 5% -8% -19% -34% 1.17 $173,155,666.95
NWM Norwest Minerals 5% 25% -10% -15% 0.064 $11,017,050.61
PRL Province Resources 5% -26% -33% -33% 0.0965 $109,993,515.32
HAS Hastings Tech Met 5% -3% 24% 40% 0.2725 $476,970,566.31
MIN Mineral Resources. 5% 4% 8% 26% 49.06 $8,841,966,879.02
TEM Tempest Minerals 5% -8% -12% -31% 0.022 $8,753,819.76
SCN Scorpion Minerals 5% -4% 10% 31% 0.068 $18,056,914.86
BUX Buxton Resources 5% 26% 74% 72% 0.115 $16,326,651.84
KGD Kula Gold Limited 5% -8% -4% 18% 0.046 $10,113,254.70
OZL OZ Minerals 4% 1% 21% 14% 26.32 $8,703,371,014.00
BYH Bryah Resources 4% -4% -13% -19% 0.048 $10,857,944.40
MCR Mincor Resources NL 4% 25% 74% 122% 2.23 $1,012,285,982.40
NTU Northern Min 4% 4% 33% 33% 0.053 $257,558,603.85
S32 South32 Limited 4% 11% 53% 87% 5.05 $22,678,527,949.92
HXG Hexagon Energy 4% 4% -28% -46% 0.054 $23,213,800.12
SRI Sipa Resources 4% 8% -11% -5% 0.056 $10,866,314.56
SRZ Stellar Resources 4% 4% -3% 12% 0.028 $22,607,170.90
LYC Lynas Rare Earths 3% 20% 57% 69% 10.59 $9,267,766,659.58
ZNC Zenith Minerals 3% -6% 60% 158% 0.335 $110,049,329.60
BHP BHP Group Limited 3% 1% 29% 9% 48.77 $235,144,912,175.50
LEG Legend Mining 3% 3% 9% -42% 0.072 $201,124,907.63
CRR Critical Resources 3% -23% 208% 311% 0.074 $111,403,987.65
EMS Eastern Metals 3% -14% 0% 0% 0.19 $6,586,000.00
LRV Larvottoresources 2% -19% 0% 0% 0.21 $8,859,612.50
TMB Tambourahmetals 2% -6% -4% 0% 0.22 $9,268,334.55
CNB Carnaby Resource 2% -6% 322% 454% 1.33 $193,054,915.29
LMG Latrobe Magnesium 2% -6% 291% 260% 0.09 $140,758,336.49
AKE Allkem Limited 2% 11% 20% 111% 10.41 $6,349,754,836.56
TLG Talga Group 2% 6% 0% 1% 1.435 $426,586,326.60
PGM Platina Resources 2% -9% -22% 4% 0.051 $23,456,646.47
RAG Ragnar Metals 2% -13% -13% -47% 0.0305 $11,180,546.67
G88 Golden Mile Res 2% 19% 33% 23% 0.064 $11,073,172.99
G88 Golden Mile Res 2% 19% 33% 23% 0.064 $11,073,172.99
CTM Centaurus Metals 2% 5% 37% 65% 1.305 $530,798,218.94
IGO IGO Limited 1% 10% 40% 99% 12.625 $9,253,812,674.86
FFX Firefinch 1% 26% 31% 263% 0.8175 $960,181,003.00
VIA Viagold Rare Earth 0% 0% 953% 2400% 2 $166,624,808.00
MRD Mount Ridley Mines 0% 13% 80% 157% 0.009 $57,755,907.56
CZN Corazon 0% 1% -9% -36% 0.032 $12,471,702.08
DEV Devex Resources 0% 4% 29% 93% 0.425 $131,957,266.98
ESR Estrella Res 0% 0% -28% -55% 0.029 $34,819,764.66
SBR Sabre Resources 0% 10% 10% 10% 0.0055 $10,174,068.25
TKL Traka Resources 0% -17% -23% -41% 0.01 $6,887,745.61
ARN Aldoro Resources 0% -20% -29% 57% 0.33 $29,165,041.43
RXL Rox Resources 0% -2% 3% -31% 0.405 $66,731,674.07
BRB Breaker Res NL 0% -6% -8% 23% 0.245 $79,831,027.61
ATM Aneka Tambang 0% 0% 10% 10% 1.1025 $1,437,273.02
LML Lincoln Minerals 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.008 $4,599,869.49
PUR Pursuit Minerals 0% -9% -60% -71% 0.02 $18,910,983.88
MOH Moho Resources 0% 2% -10% -37% 0.055 $7,157,078.17
AML Aeon Metals . 0% 1% -14% -51% 0.049 $45,022,062.18
NKL Nickelx 0% 0% -23% 0% 0.155 $8,856,000.00
MRR Minrex Resources 0% -6% 275% 150% 0.06 $52,071,491.94
AM7 Arcadia Minerals 0% -10% -12% 0% 0.23 $8,048,275.00
ENT Enterprise Metals 0% -13% 1% -53% 0.013 $8,026,792.38
AOA Ausmon Resorces 0% 14% 14% -33% 0.008 $6,858,314.74
CML Chase Mining Limited 0% -13% -28% -19% 0.013 $6,085,725.89
AKN Auking Mining 0% -31% -6% -58% 0.17 $12,097,294.35
MTM Mtmongerresources 0% -6% -20% 0% 0.16 $5,025,704.79
REE Rarex Limited -1% -14% -4% -27% 0.095 $52,894,205.70
AXE Archer Materials -1% -6% -53% -5% 0.94 $228,999,666.48
CWX Carawine Resources -1% 29% 15% -24% 0.2125 $28,945,212.87
VR8 Vanadium Resources -1% -8% 14% 66% 0.073 $35,010,315.68
AZI Altamin Limited -1% -6% -13% -23% 0.068 $26,443,292.74
BNR Bulletin Res -2% 9% 125% 130% 0.1575 $44,261,786.05
KZR Kalamazoo Resources -2% -11% -12% -38% 0.295 $42,106,368.46
E25 Element 25 -2% -26% -54% -67% 0.875 $135,912,228.41
BMM Balkanminingandmin -2% -26% -62% 0% 0.26 $8,842,500.00
MAN Mandrake Res -2% -6% -19% -67% 0.046 $23,137,827.36
LIT Lithium Australia NL -2% -2% -14% -17% 0.1075 $113,632,238.06
GAL Galileo Mining -2% 8% -23% -9% 0.215 $35,365,933.05
PNN PepinNini Minerals -2% -10% 37% 26% 0.41 $25,711,691.88
DTM Dart Mining NL -2% -10% -26% -55% 0.081 $10,083,765.33
RBX Resource B -3% -3% 0% 474% 0.195 $7,989,517.00
RBX Resource B -3% -3% 0% 474% 0.195 $7,989,517.00
BOA Boadicea Resources -3% -17% 3% -15% 0.19 $14,762,980.05
PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc -3% 39% 37% -13% 0.94 $497,714,866.00
AR3 Austrare -3% -14% -18% 0% 0.75 $56,778,232.34
AUZ Australian Mines -3% 3% -20% -14% 0.185 $79,616,173.95
AZS Azure Minerals -3% -11% 11% -1% 0.36 $110,311,180.96
WML Woomera Mining -3% -3% -16% -12% 0.0175 $11,591,162.12
FRS Forrestaniaresources -3% 3% 0% 0% 0.34 $9,834,581.40
TON Triton Min -3% -9% -3% -42% 0.029 $36,040,741.13
CMO Cosmometalslimited -3% -19% 0% 0% 0.145 $3,571,400.00
OMH OM Holdings Limited -3% -8% 22% 14% 0.855 $624,136,719.77
PVW PVW Res -4% -23% 163% 275% 0.525 $37,753,171.88
AOU Auroch Minerals -4% 0% -36% -48% 0.115 $41,549,706.89
PGD Peregrine Gold -4% -23% 26% 0% 0.455 $17,566,251.38
PAN Panoramic Resources -5% 16% 48% 119% 0.295 $615,274,201.20
SHH Shree Minerals -5% 6% 90% 27% 0.019 $20,201,500.95
VMC Venus Metals Cor -5% -3% 9% -3% 0.18 $26,438,769.53
FRB Firebird Metals -6% -6% -44% -39% 0.33 $16,008,781.44
RMX Red Mount Min -6% -11% -20% -33% 0.008 $13,960,092.79
SLZ Sultan Resources -6% 7% 0% -18% 0.16 $12,909,080.30
CHN Chalice Mining -6% -2% 6% 57% 7.13 $2,531,317,369.62
PNT Panthermetals -6% 0% 0% 0% 0.22 $5,740,000.00
GBR Greatbould Resources -6% -3% -6% 263% 0.145 $58,943,908.49
ADD Adavale Resource -7% 14% -38% -5% 0.042 $14,542,316.53
MRC Mineral Commodities -8% -12% -23% -71% 0.115 $61,523,922.91
IMI Infinitymining -8% -8% 0% 0% 0.165 $9,775,000.00
NWC New World Resources -8% -21% -17% -29% 0.054 $86,111,252.39
KOR Korab Resources -9% -12% 126% 231% 0.043 $15,783,150.00
STK Strickland Metals -9% -15% 13% 158% 0.053 $66,551,654.00
BSX Blackstone -9% -12% -10% -13% 0.41 $186,582,989.48
GRE Greentechmetals -12% -16% 0% 0% 0.215 $6,066,499.78
MMC Mitremining -13% -20% 0% 0% 0.165 $4,333,616.00
VRC Volt Resources -14% -40% -61% -37% 0.012 $34,363,842.22
IPT Impact Minerals -15% -15% -35% -56% 0.011 $24,095,077.45
RFR Rafaella Resources -18% -20% -47% -57% 0.047 $12,453,975.30
FG1 Flynngold -19% -19% -10% 0% 0.13 $8,648,241.75
SGQ St George Min -19% 9% -29% -43% 0.051 $31,227,119.66
CAE Cannindah Resources -25% -12% 205% 498% 0.305 $178,803,594.79
TSC Twenty Seven Co. -25% -25% -40% -57% 0.003 $7,982,441.72

 

Weekly Top 3

AUSTRALIAN VANADIUM (ASX:AVL) +66%

One of three government grant beneficiaries, this time $49m to support development of AVL’s vanadium project in WA.

Vanadium is used in critical aerospace and chemical applications, is a key component in high strength and specialty steel products and has an important and growing use in vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB).

The Australian Vanadium project is one of the most advanced vanadium projects being developed globally.

It would cost ~$US399m ($541m) to build and expects to produce 24.3 million pounds (11,022 tonnes) of V2O5 per annum at a low all-in cost of $US5.04/lb, over an initial mine life of 25 years.

A bankable feasibility study – the most advanced of all studies prior to making a final investment decision – is well underway.

AVL also has a battery subsidiary called VSUN Energy, which is focused on developing the market for VRFBs for energy storage.

“Our project will create hundreds of jobs in Australia and help to build the critical vanadium industry both locally and internationally,” AVL MD Vince Algar says.

“We have developed an innovative and collaborative approach to building a fully integrated project, from mine through to processing and end use in the steel and battery markets.

“We look forward to working with our partners to bring the Australian Vanadium Project into production and further develop downstream opportunities for green steel and the vanadium redox flow battery market.”
 

Australian Vanadium (ASX:AVL) share price today:

 

LATIN RESOURCES (ASX:LRS) +51%

The tiddler keeps hitting thick, shallow dipping spodumene (lithium ore) bearing pegmatites at the Salinas project in Brazil.

All six diamond holes drilled to date have hit a series of stacked spod peggies along a 600m stretch, LRS says.

Check out these large green spod crystals:

STUNNING.

Logging has confirmed that the individual pegmatites range in true thickness to a maximum of 21.1m, with a cumulative intersection of over 36m in one hole.

“The growing thickness along with the rich spodumene pegmatites is further indication that Latin may have a very compelling lithium project on its books,” LRS MD Chris Gale says.

“We look forward to receiving the assay results from these spodumene pegmatites in the next few weeks.

“The company’s market cap is approximately $60m, and much lower than our lithium peers, which we expect offers strong potential for re-rating as positive assay results confirm the strength of the Salinas project.”
 

Latin Resources (ASX:LRS) share price today:

 

ARDEA RESOURCES (ASX:ARL) +43%

ARL’s ‘Kalgoorlie Nickel Project’ (KNP) has received Major Project Status from the Aussie Government, which helps streamline the approvals process and provides access to additional sources of potential project funding.

The KNP hosts 5.9Mt of contained nickel and 380kt of contained cobalt, making it the largest nickel-cobalt resource in the developed world.

That’s enough to power 147m electric vehicles, ARL says.

The $1.165 billion project would mine cobalt-nickel laterite ore which will undergo a process to produce Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate for the growing international battery market.

A DFS – a detailed look at the economics of building a project — is underway.
 

Ardea Resources (ASX:ARL) share price today: