Pic: Via Getty
Mining
Is it too early to load up on sold down lithium stocks? Maybe, says Fastmarkets battery raw materials analyst Jordan Roberts.
While the next couple of years represent another attractive opportunity to invest in the lithium sector, Roberts says punters should prepare to be waiting until mid/late 2025 for the next upcycle to begin.
“If we look at the length of the cycles in the lithium market, the last “winter” so to speak lasted between 2-2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,” he told Stockhead.
“Spot lithium prices have been on the decline for roughly a year now. So if we apply the timeline from above, that points to a recovery in the middle to late 2025.
“So I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years based on a supply and demand balance that is pointing to a market surplus in 2024 and 2025.
“Lithium stocks are currently some of the most shorted on the ASX, so I think there is a fairly strong belief that the lower price environment is here to stay for a while and there is low risk of a potential short squeeze.
“There is still a hunger for lithium generally and positive sentiment for long-term demand fundamentals. I believe that the first sign of a stable recovery in price, not just short-term restocking driven, will be reflected in stock sentiment.”
Roberts says believes lithium prices probably won’t go as mental as they did in 2022, when spodumene was paying over US$8000/t and chemicals topped US$87,000/t.
“The sector’s move away from fixed long-term contracts to index-based price mechanisms, and the increasing use of futures contracts should cap potential price upside (in theory) and avoid a return to $87 dollars per kilogram,” he says.
“However, Should the current price environment cause producers to pause expansions and project development to enter a hibernation period, this could create the perfect storm that again results in another price run-up akin to 2021-2022.”
SC Insights lithium expert Andy Leyland agrees.
5/ Boom & Bust: The slowdown in financing on raw materials is already sowing the seeds of the next sustained price rally. For now there is enough lithium in the pipeline, but expect deployment to slowdown.
Most Supply and Demand forecast models will show a deficit developing… pic.twitter.com/R2ZfqzzDEp— Andy Leyland (@andyleyland1) December 26, 2023
Like Leyland, ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes the lithium chemical supply surplus isn’t as big as analysts believe. He expects prices will begin to rise sometime in 2024.
“Much of Chinese lepidolite is losing money at current spot pricing. Even Chinese companies can’t lose money on a long-term basis without subsidy,” Lowry told Stockhead.
“I believe the bottom happens by the second half of 2024 at the latest.”
Host of The Global Lithium Podcast, Joe Lowry is one of the world’s foremost #lithium market experts. Here, he gives his takes on the battery metal’s outlook as the industry recharges for 2024. https://t.co/uet08QUWHm
— Stockhead (@StockheadAU) January 1, 2024
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts “a more balanced market in 2024” but one which is “likely to keep prices at similar levels to today”.
But there’s a couple of bullish signals to keep an eye on, it says.
“The slim forecasted surplus could swing into a deficit if only one major project delay occurs. Equally, should global EV sales rise 600,000 units above base case demand forecasts, the supply and demand dynamic would flip, which could lend some support to prices.”
Not an unthinkable scenario, says Benchmark.
Then there’s the Big Bear Goldman Sachs, which is predicting prices to bottom out in 2025 due to oversupply, before rising in 2026.
Say what you like about Goldman Sachs (Lowry certainly does), but some of its analysis on lithium forecasting in 2023 turned out to be pretty accurate.
Macquarie has also pivoted from its bullish September outlook, and now says the market for lithium will “remain in surplus for several years”.
Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 4pm.)
Stocks missing from this list? Email [email protected]
| CODE | COMPANY | WEEK | MONTH | 6 MONTH | YEAR | PRICE | MARKET CAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTM | MTM Critical Metals | 92% | 283% | -12% | 16% | 0.092 | $6,761,722 |
| EUR | European Lithium Ltd | 56% | 54% | 13% | 52% | 0.1125 | $146,395,113 |
| ARN | Aldoro Resources | 52% | 47% | 19% | -22% | 0.125 | $16,827,968 |
| GLN | Galan Lithium Ltd | 33% | 19% | -16% | -32% | 0.73 | $243,895,873 |
| CMD | Cassius Mining Ltd | 29% | 29% | 18% | 100% | 0.04 | $20,104,422 |
| PAM | Pan Asia Metals | 24% | 3% | -30% | -62% | 0.155 | $20,877,679 |
| EVR | Ev Resources Ltd | 22% | 10% | -15% | -21% | 0.011 | $12,095,472 |
| YAR | Yari Minerals Ltd | 22% | -21% | -21% | -35% | 0.011 | $5,547,115 |
| LLI | Loyal Lithium Ltd | 22% | 6% | 14% | 24% | 0.365 | $25,240,547 |
| DAF | Discovery Alaska Ltd | 21% | 44% | -18% | -28% | 0.023 | $4,450,459 |
| NWM | Norwest Minerals | 19% | 0% | -33% | -41% | 0.032 | $7,764,377 |
| DYM | Dynamicmetalslimited | 18% | 0% | -48% | 0% | 0.165 | $4,900,000 |
| JLL | Jindalee Lithium Ltd | 17% | 2% | -44% | -48% | 0.98 | $62,909,722 |
| BNR | Bulletin Res Ltd | 17% | -3% | 130% | 51% | 0.14 | $41,105,865 |
| FIN | FIN Resources Ltd | 17% | -21% | 50% | 11% | 0.021 | $14,283,911 |
| OZM | Ozaurum Resources | 17% | 22% | 233% | 112% | 0.14 | $23,812,500 |
| WML | Woomera Mining Ltd | 16% | 21% | 123% | 53% | 0.029 | $34,617,142 |
| VKA | Viking Mines Ltd | 15% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 0.015 | $14,353,618 |
| KZR | Kalamazoo Resources | 14% | 0% | 4% | -43% | 0.12 | $20,564,337 |
| AUN | Aurumin | 14% | 0% | -19% | -59% | 0.025 | $9,319,520 |
| CTN | Catalina Resources | 13% | 13% | 50% | -55% | 0.0045 | $5,573,191 |
| TYX | Tyranna Res Ltd | 13% | -5% | -5% | -25% | 0.018 | $55,886,231 |
| G88 | Golden Mile Res Ltd | 12% | -10% | -64% | -7% | 0.019 | $6,258,401 |
| AGY | Argosy Minerals Ltd | 12% | -12% | -63% | -75% | 0.145 | $189,595,012 |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | 11% | 24% | -40% | 28% | 1.685 | $3,996,274,846 |
| AML | Aeon Metals Ltd. | 11% | -9% | -33% | -63% | 0.01 | $12,060,407 |
| INR | Ioneer Ltd | 11% | 3% | -56% | -61% | 0.15 | $316,711,822 |
| WCN | White Cliff Min Ltd | 11% | -9% | 43% | -29% | 0.01 | $11,489,034 |
| BM8 | Battery Age Minerals | 11% | -5% | -61% | -59% | 0.205 | $16,936,009 |
| LRS | Latin Resources Ltd | 10% | 53% | -14% | 181% | 0.275 | $796,234,767 |
| GT1 | Greentechnology | 10% | -13% | -62% | -67% | 0.275 | $90,416,848 |
| IPT | Impact Minerals | 10% | 0% | -21% | 57% | 0.011 | $31,511,743 |
| SYA | Sayona Mining Ltd | 9% | 13% | -60% | -63% | 0.07 | $730,824,017 |
| SGQ | St George Min Ltd | 9% | 6% | -13% | -49% | 0.035 | $33,460,375 |
| TON | Triton Min Ltd | 9% | 14% | -29% | -33% | 0.024 | $35,911,271 |
| EMS | Eastern Metals | 9% | 13% | -33% | -51% | 0.036 | $2,884,919 |
| RAS | Ragusa Minerals Ltd | 9% | -14% | -45% | -69% | 0.036 | $5,133,556 |
| AL8 | Alderan Resource Ltd | 9% | -14% | -8% | -14% | 0.006 | $5,534,307 |
| GW1 | Greenwing Resources | 9% | 25% | -46% | -55% | 0.125 | $23,523,950 |
| PL3 | Patagonia Lithium | 9% | -7% | -32% | 0% | 0.125 | $6,386,705 |
| VUL | Vulcan Energy | 9% | 14% | -33% | -56% | 2.79 | $490,408,073 |
| LRD | Lordresourceslimited | 8% | -19% | -28% | -61% | 0.065 | $2,339,324 |
| LRD | Lordresourceslimited | 8% | -19% | -28% | -61% | 0.065 | $2,339,324 |
| RDN | Raiden Resources Ltd | 8% | -5% | 310% | 763% | 0.041 | $106,175,499 |
| QPM | Queensland Pacific | 8% | -2% | -45% | -50% | 0.055 | $110,689,717 |
| LPM | Lithium Plus | 8% | -17% | 28% | -7% | 0.345 | $30,955,752 |
| MHK | Metalhawk. | 8% | -10% | 8% | -15% | 0.14 | $13,420,950 |
| CAI | Calidus Resources | 8% | 8% | 26% | -20% | 0.215 | $131,531,381 |
| NVA | Nova Minerals Ltd | 7% | 33% | 26% | -46% | 0.365 | $75,920,386 |
| SBR | Sabre Resources | 7% | -14% | 19% | -18% | 0.031 | $12,311,018 |
| OBM | Ora Banda Mining Ltd | 7% | 2% | 96% | 192% | 0.245 | $409,624,769 |
| BUR | Burleyminerals | 6% | 6% | -28% | -25% | 0.165 | $16,713,965 |
| DTM | Dart Mining NL | 6% | 6% | -58% | -69% | 0.017 | $3,868,854 |
| LKE | Lake Resources | 6% | 2% | -56% | -83% | 0.1325 | $184,917,812 |
| CHR | Charger Metals | 6% | -27% | -64% | -60% | 0.18 | $11,997,871 |
| WR1 | Winsome Resources | 6% | -4% | -33% | -11% | 1.09 | $195,126,804 |
| AZI | Altamin Limited | 6% | 4% | -28% | -30% | 0.055 | $23,546,707 |
| MLS | Metals Australia | 6% | 6% | 9% | -17% | 0.037 | $23,089,339 |
| ASN | Anson Resources Ltd | 6% | -2% | -8% | -23% | 0.1425 | $180,003,484 |
| DLI | Delta Lithium | 5% | 7% | -42% | 4% | 0.48 | $323,409,419 |
| PLN | Pioneer Lithium | 5% | -26% | 0% | 0% | 0.195 | $5,685,000 |
| CRR | Critical Resources | 5% | -13% | -50% | -53% | 0.02 | $37,334,856 |
| NMT | Neometals Ltd | 5% | 8% | -57% | -74% | 0.205 | $130,764,966 |
| PMT | Patriotbatterymetals | 5% | 8% | -34% | 51% | 1.135 | $514,633,556 |
| ALY | Alchemy Resource Ltd | 5% | 5% | -34% | -54% | 0.0105 | $11,780,763 |
| WYX | Western Yilgarn NL | 5% | 5% | -19% | -19% | 0.105 | $4,965,750 |
| JBY | James Bay Minerals | 5% | -15% | 0% | 0% | 0.315 | $10,220,175 |
| JNO | Juno | 5% | -9% | 52% | 10% | 0.105 | $20,013,979 |
| PNN | Power Minerals Ltd | 5% | -6% | -42% | -58% | 0.225 | $18,348,981 |
| LEL | Lithenergy | 5% | -5% | -34% | -26% | 0.57 | $59,230,750 |
| LNR | Lanthanein Resources | 5% | 92% | -23% | -45% | 0.0115 | $14,832,837 |
| TMB | Tambourahmetals | 4% | -25% | 33% | 14% | 0.12 | $9,123,439 |
| TMB | Tambourahmetals | 4% | -25% | 33% | 14% | 0.12 | $9,123,439 |
| MQR | Marquee Resource Ltd | 4% | -4% | -42% | -30% | 0.026 | $10,747,994 |
| PLS | Pilbara Min Ltd | 4% | 10% | -19% | 6% | 3.98 | $11,887,398,383 |
| AAJ | Aruma Resources Ltd | 4% | -13% | -37% | -49% | 0.027 | $5,316,071 |
| MIN | Mineral Resources. | 4% | 16% | -1% | -9% | 70.53 | $13,663,049,960 |
| MM1 | Midasmineralsltd | 4% | 12% | -59% | -28% | 0.145 | $12,144,614 |
| THR | Thor Energy PLC | 3% | 7% | -25% | -50% | 0.03 | $5,581,090 |
| WES | Wesfarmers Limited | 3% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 57.62 | $64,693,471,823 |
| ZEO | Zeotech Limited | 3% | -13% | -27% | -30% | 0.033 | $55,469,538 |
| CXO | Core Lithium | 3% | -1% | -70% | -74% | 0.2675 | $534,233,886 |
| RON | Roninresourcesltd | 3% | -18% | 16% | 9% | 0.18 | $6,812,627 |
| FTL | Firetail Resources | 3% | -8% | -30% | -52% | 0.077 | $11,465,728 |
| A11 | Atlantic Lithium | 3% | -23% | -25% | -34% | 0.41 | $249,017,274 |
| GL1 | Globallith | 2% | -7% | -24% | -36% | 1.18 | $313,619,685 |
| INF | Infinity Lithium | 2% | -4% | 7% | -20% | 0.096 | $46,259,209 |
| PGD | Peregrine Gold | 2% | -6% | -11% | -36% | 0.245 | $15,015,846 |
| FG1 | Flynngold | 2% | -31% | -13% | -48% | 0.052 | $7,577,661 |
| MMC | Mitremining | 2% | 0% | -13% | -7% | 0.26 | $15,305,659 |
| LPI | Lithium Pwr Int Ltd | 2% | 2% | 88% | 26% | 0.555 | $350,664,412 |
| FRS | Forrestaniaresources | 2% | -8% | -68% | -80% | 0.0285 | $4,530,001 |
| RIO | Rio Tinto Limited | 2% | 9% | 19% | 17% | 136.57 | $50,359,191,591 |
| IGO | IGO Limited | 1% | 9% | -40% | -32% | 9.11 | $6,853,273,708 |
| REC | Rechargemetals | 1% | -15% | -75% | -31% | 0.093 | $10,578,438 |
| AVZ | AVZ Minerals Ltd | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.78 | $2,752,409,203 |
| LIT | Lithium Australia | 0% | 3% | -9% | -33% | 0.03 | $36,665,750 |
| AKE | Allkem Limited | 0% | 16% | -39% | -13% | 9.83 | $6,304,350,967 |
| RLC | Reedy Lagoon Corp. | 0% | -17% | -14% | -48% | 0.005 | $3,097,704 |
| TKL | Traka Resources | 0% | -5% | -36% | -52% | 0.003 | $2,625,988 |
| GSM | Golden State Mining | 0% | -17% | -67% | -65% | 0.015 | $4,190,559 |
| TEM | Tempest Minerals | 0% | 0% | -38% | -65% | 0.008 | $4,091,068 |
| KGD | Kula Gold Limited | 0% | -50% | -12% | -40% | 0.015 | $6,290,487 |
| ENT | Enterprise Metals | 0% | 33% | 0% | -60% | 0.004 | $3,207,884 |
| STM | Sunstone Metals Ltd | 0% | -13% | -46% | -62% | 0.014 | $52,316,023 |
| EFE | Eastern Resources | 0% | -20% | -20% | -72% | 0.008 | $9,935,572 |
| SRZ | Stellar Resources | 0% | 0% | -38% | -38% | 0.008 | $8,043,185 |
| AOA | Ausmon Resorces | 0% | 0% | -14% | -57% | 0.003 | $3,020,998 |
| SRI | Sipa Resources Ltd | 0% | 19% | 25% | -22% | 0.025 | $5,703,953 |
| RGL | Riversgold | 0% | -25% | -20% | -60% | 0.012 | $10,644,276 |
| EPM | Eclipse Metals | 0% | -11% | -50% | -50% | 0.008 | $16,500,434 |
| MNS | Magnis Energy Tech | 0% | -13% | -70% | -89% | 0.042 | $50,378,922 |
| M2R | Miramar | 0% | 11% | -40% | -72% | 0.021 | $3,126,260 |
| WMC | Wiluna Mining Corp | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.205 | $74,238,031 |
| LLL | Leolithiumlimited | 0% | 0% | -53% | 4% | 0.505 | $498,553,663 |
| RMX | Red Mount Min Ltd | 0% | -14% | -25% | -40% | 0.003 | $8,020,728 |
| ENT | Enterprise Metals | 0% | 33% | 0% | -60% | 0.004 | $3,207,884 |
| XTC | XTC Lithium Limited | 0% | 0% | -17% | -67% | 0.2 | $17,528,272 |
| IEC | Intra Energy Corp | 0% | -25% | -40% | -63% | 0.003 | $5,812,736 |
| ICL | Iceni Gold | 0% | -16% | -25% | -34% | 0.053 | $12,472,571 |
| TMX | Terrain Minerals | 0% | 25% | -29% | -17% | 0.005 | $6,767,139 |
| MHC | Manhattan Corp Ltd | 0% | 0% | -50% | -27% | 0.004 | $11,747,919 |
| ANX | Anax Metals Ltd | 0% | 7% | -52% | -43% | 0.03 | $14,427,529 |
| ADG | Adelong Gold Limited | 0% | -17% | -38% | -29% | 0.005 | $3,498,278 |
| PFE | Panteraminerals | 0% | -13% | -40% | -53% | 0.052 | $6,896,373 |
| CXB0 | ASRA MINERALS LTD. | 0% | -11% | 0% | -59% | 0.00004 | $6,515,983 |
| PFE | Panteraminerals | 0% | -13% | -40% | -53% | 0.052 | $6,896,373 |
| PSC | Prospect Res Ltd | -1% | 1% | -45% | -27% | 0.088 | $41,236,545 |
| PLL | Piedmont Lithium Inc | -1% | 9% | -51% | -35% | 0.42 | $158,083,824 |
| AZS | Azure Minerals | -1% | -7% | 145% | 1540% | 3.69 | $1,697,114,428 |
| FBM | Future Battery | -1% | -3% | -41% | 34% | 0.071 | $38,964,187 |
| WC8 | Wildcat Resources | -2% | -9% | 467% | 2733% | 0.68 | $831,058,844 |
| TOR | Torque Met | -2% | 22% | 57% | 22% | 0.22 | $28,913,298 |
| TOR | Torque Met | -2% | 22% | 57% | 22% | 0.22 | $28,913,298 |
| EMC | Everest Metals Corp | -2% | -2% | -58% | 1% | 0.08 | $13,062,649 |
| EMC | Everest Metals Corp | -2% | -2% | -58% | 1% | 0.08 | $13,062,649 |
| ADV | Ardiden Ltd | -3% | -3% | -42% | -42% | 0.175 | $10,940,564 |
| MXR | Maximus Resources | -3% | -37% | 13% | -15% | 0.034 | $11,221,202 |
| LLO | Lion One Metals Ltd | -3% | -1% | 26% | -15% | 0.995 | $14,142,041 |
| AZL | Arizona Lithium Ltd | -3% | -21% | -3% | -50% | 0.031 | $113,858,997 |
| GRE | Greentechmetals | -3% | -7% | -20% | 218% | 0.445 | $31,491,708 |
| LRV | Larvottoresources | -4% | -17% | -39% | -49% | 0.072 | $14,874,940 |
| QXR | Qx Resources Limited | -4% | -20% | 26% | -43% | 0.024 | $25,531,791 |
| CY5 | Cygnus Metals Ltd | -4% | -14% | -56% | -68% | 0.12 | $39,360,484 |
| RAG | Ragnar Metals Ltd | -4% | 0% | -7% | 101% | 0.023 | $11,375,543 |
| OCN | Oceanalithiumlimited | -4% | -4% | -71% | -67% | 0.115 | $6,369,180 |
| DAL | Dalaroometalsltd | -4% | -37% | -73% | -78% | 0.022 | $1,820,500 |
| MAN | Mandrake Res Ltd | -5% | 5% | -9% | 5% | 0.042 | $26,477,677 |
| AX8 | Accelerate Resources | -5% | -18% | 105% | 78% | 0.041 | $24,070,274 |
| VMC | Venus Metals Cor Ltd | -5% | -9% | -9% | 27% | 0.1 | $18,972,868 |
| DRE | Dreadnought Resources Ltd | -5% | -8% | -43% | -72% | 0.0295 | $104,372,189 |
| VSR | Voltaic Strategic | -5% | -14% | -79% | -19% | 0.019 | $9,178,974 |
| TG6 | Tgmetalslimited | -5% | -52% | 241% | 226% | 0.375 | $20,823,174 |
| NKL | Nickelxltd | -5% | -38% | -45% | -54% | 0.037 | $3,249,161 |
| AM7 | Arcadia Minerals | -5% | -14% | -37% | -64% | 0.073 | $7,960,657 |
| NIS | Nickelsearch | -5% | -32% | 20% | -55% | 0.071 | $15,588,599 |
| PAT | Patriot Lithium | -6% | -11% | -37% | -36% | 0.17 | $12,333,084 |
| SCN | Scorpion Minerals | -6% | -27% | -64% | -54% | 0.032 | $13,512,054 |
| MRR | Minrex Resources Ltd | -6% | 0% | 14% | -50% | 0.016 | $18,442,748 |
| SCN | Scorpion Minerals | -6% | -27% | -64% | -54% | 0.032 | $13,512,054 |
| HAW | Hawthorn Resources | -6% | 12% | -34% | -19% | 0.093 | $31,156,452 |
| LPD | Lepidico Ltd | -6% | -12% | -32% | -53% | 0.0075 | $61,106,464 |
| SLM | Solismineralsltd | -6% | -19% | -86% | 100% | 0.15 | $11,382,022 |
| CC9 | Chariot Corporation | -7% | -10% | 0% | 0% | 0.57 | $39,599,047 |
| IR1 | Irismetals | -7% | -24% | -46% | -21% | 0.915 | $119,773,608 |
| KAI | Kairos Minerals Ltd | -7% | -13% | -19% | -33% | 0.014 | $36,692,771 |
| LM1 | Leeuwin Metals Ltd | -7% | -30% | -65% | 0% | 0.14 | $6,442,188 |
| FL1 | First Lithium Ltd | -7% | -26% | 194% | 194% | 0.53 | $36,076,609 |
| BYH | Bryah Resources Ltd | -7% | -7% | -19% | -49% | 0.013 | $5,636,894 |
| TKM | Trek Metals Ltd | -8% | -24% | -60% | -51% | 0.037 | $20,523,074 |
| BMM | Balkanminingandmin | -8% | -11% | -41% | -64% | 0.12 | $7,814,456 |
| EG1 | Evergreenlithium | -8% | -19% | -47% | 0% | 0.175 | $9,840,250 |
| KTA | Krakatoa Resources | -8% | -25% | 38% | -25% | 0.033 | $16,995,860 |
| OLY | Olympio Metals Ltd | -9% | -25% | -49% | -28% | 0.105 | $6,677,947 |
| IMI | Infinitymining | -10% | 17% | 17% | -49% | 0.14 | $11,628,361 |
| AS2 | Askarimetalslimited | -11% | -11% | -46% | -64% | 0.155 | $13,606,287 |
| A8G | Australasian Metals | -12% | -12% | 30% | -21% | 0.15 | $8,860,484 |
| ZNC | Zenith Minerals Ltd | -12% | 11% | 67% | -43% | 0.15 | $52,857,132 |
| KOB | Kobaresourceslimited | -13% | -9% | -55% | -50% | 0.07 | $7,379,167 |
| ASR | Asra Minerals Ltd | -13% | -7% | 0% | -65% | 0.007 | $11,402,970 |
| SUM | Summitminerals | -13% | -20% | -34% | -34% | 0.096 | $4,718,056 |
| L1M | Lightning Minerals | -14% | -20% | -25% | -27% | 0.12 | $5,911,509 |
| 1MC | Morella Corporation | -17% | -17% | -38% | -58% | 0.005 | $33,983,397 |
| LIS | Lisenergylimited | -18% | -20% | -31% | -48% | 0.165 | $115,236,041 |
| EMH | European Metals Hldg | -18% | -29% | -52% | -38% | 0.395 | $53,693,553 |
| AVW | Avira Resources Ltd | -25% | 0% | -40% | -50% | 0.0015 | $3,200,685 |
| LSR | Lodestar Minerals | -25% | -25% | -25% | -40% | 0.003 | $8,093,589 |
CHARGED UP 🚀
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