Eye on Lithium: The consensus is there’s no consensus on when lithium prices will begin to rise again

Fastmarkets says next lithium upcycle to begin mid/late 2025
“I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years”: Fastmarkets analyst Jordan Roberts
‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes market bottom “by the second half of 2024 at the latest”
Benchmark says there are a couple of bull market signals to keep an eye on: flagging mine supply and booming EV sales

Is it too early to load up on sold down lithium stocks? Maybe, says Fastmarkets battery raw materials analyst Jordan Roberts.

While the next couple of years represent another attractive opportunity to invest in the lithium sector, Roberts says punters should prepare to be waiting until mid/late 2025 for the next upcycle to begin.

“If we look at the length of the cycles in the lithium market, the last “winter” so to speak lasted between 2-2.5 years between 2019 and 2021,” he told Stockhead.

“Spot lithium prices have been on the decline for roughly a year now. So if we apply the timeline from above, that points to a recovery in the middle to late 2025.

“So I do expect prices to remain around current levels for at least the next couple of years based on a supply and demand balance that is pointing to a market surplus in 2024 and 2025.

“Lithium stocks are currently some of the most shorted on the ASX, so I think there is a fairly strong belief that the lower price environment is here to stay for a while and there is low risk of a potential short squeeze.

“There is still a hunger for lithium generally and positive sentiment for long-term demand fundamentals. I believe that the first sign of a stable recovery in price, not just short-term restocking driven, will be reflected in stock sentiment.”

But prices won’t go stratospheric again. Probably

Roberts says believes lithium prices probably won’t go as mental as they did in 2022, when spodumene was paying over US$8000/t and chemicals topped US$87,000/t.

“The sector’s move away from fixed long-term contracts to index-based price mechanisms, and the increasing use of futures contracts should cap potential price upside (in theory) and avoid a return to $87 dollars per kilogram,” he says.

“However, Should the current price environment cause producers to pause expansions and project development to enter a hibernation period, this could create the perfect storm that again results in another price run-up akin to 2021-2022.”

SC Insights lithium expert Andy Leyland agrees.

5/ Boom & Bust: The slowdown in financing on raw materials is already sowing the seeds of the next sustained price rally. For now there is enough lithium in the pipeline, but expect deployment to slowdown.
Most Supply and Demand forecast models will show a deficit developing… pic.twitter.com/R2ZfqzzDEp

— Andy Leyland (@andyleyland1) December 26, 2023

What do other experts say?

Like Leyland, ‘Mr Lithium’ Joe Lowry believes the lithium chemical supply surplus isn’t as big as analysts believe. He expects prices will begin to rise sometime in 2024.

“Much of Chinese lepidolite is losing money at current spot pricing. Even Chinese companies can’t lose money on a long-term basis without subsidy,” Lowry told Stockhead.

“I believe the bottom happens by the second half of 2024 at the latest.”

Host of The Global Lithium Podcast, Joe Lowry is one of the world’s foremost #lithium market experts. Here, he gives his takes on the battery metal’s outlook as the industry recharges for 2024. https://t.co/uet08QUWHm

— Stockhead (@StockheadAU) January 1, 2024

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts “a more balanced market in 2024” but one which is “likely to keep prices at similar levels to today”.

But there’s a couple of bullish signals to keep an eye on, it says.

“The slim forecasted surplus could swing into a deficit if only one major project delay occurs. Equally, should global EV sales rise 600,000 units above base case demand forecasts, the supply and demand dynamic would flip, which could lend some support to prices.”

Not an unthinkable scenario, says Benchmark.

Then there’s the Big Bear Goldman Sachs, which is predicting prices to bottom out in 2025 due to oversupply, before rising in 2026.

Say what you like about Goldman Sachs (Lowry certainly does), but some of its analysis on lithium forecasting in 2023 turned out to be pretty accurate.

Macquarie has also pivoted from its bullish September outlook, and now says the market for lithium will “remain in surplus for several years”.

ASX lithium form guide:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 4pm.)

Stocks missing from this list? Email [email protected]

CODE	COMPANY	WEEK	MONTH	6 MONTH	YEAR	PRICE	MARKET CAP
MTM	MTM Critical Metals	92%	283%	-12%	16%	0.092	$6,761,722
EUR	European Lithium Ltd	56%	54%	13%	52%	0.1125	$146,395,113
ARN	Aldoro Resources	52%	47%	19%	-22%	0.125	$16,827,968
GLN	Galan Lithium Ltd	33%	19%	-16%	-32%	0.73	$243,895,873
CMD	Cassius Mining Ltd	29%	29%	18%	100%	0.04	$20,104,422
PAM	Pan Asia Metals	24%	3%	-30%	-62%	0.155	$20,877,679
EVR	Ev Resources Ltd	22%	10%	-15%	-21%	0.011	$12,095,472
YAR	Yari Minerals Ltd	22%	-21%	-21%	-35%	0.011	$5,547,115
LLI	Loyal Lithium Ltd	22%	6%	14%	24%	0.365	$25,240,547
DAF	Discovery Alaska Ltd	21%	44%	-18%	-28%	0.023	$4,450,459
NWM	Norwest Minerals	19%	0%	-33%	-41%	0.032	$7,764,377
DYM	Dynamicmetalslimited	18%	0%	-48%	0%	0.165	$4,900,000
JLL	Jindalee Lithium Ltd	17%	2%	-44%	-48%	0.98	$62,909,722
BNR	Bulletin Res Ltd	17%	-3%	130%	51%	0.14	$41,105,865
FIN	FIN Resources Ltd	17%	-21%	50%	11%	0.021	$14,283,911
OZM	Ozaurum Resources	17%	22%	233%	112%	0.14	$23,812,500
WML	Woomera Mining Ltd	16%	21%	123%	53%	0.029	$34,617,142
VKA	Viking Mines Ltd	15%	25%	50%	50%	0.015	$14,353,618
KZR	Kalamazoo Resources	14%	0%	4%	-43%	0.12	$20,564,337
AUN	Aurumin	14%	0%	-19%	-59%	0.025	$9,319,520
CTN	Catalina Resources	13%	13%	50%	-55%	0.0045	$5,573,191
TYX	Tyranna Res Ltd	13%	-5%	-5%	-25%	0.018	$55,886,231
G88	Golden Mile Res Ltd	12%	-10%	-64%	-7%	0.019	$6,258,401
AGY	Argosy Minerals Ltd	12%	-12%	-63%	-75%	0.145	$189,595,012
LTR	Liontown Resources	11%	24%	-40%	28%	1.685	$3,996,274,846
AML	Aeon Metals Ltd.	11%	-9%	-33%	-63%	0.01	$12,060,407
INR	Ioneer Ltd	11%	3%	-56%	-61%	0.15	$316,711,822
WCN	White Cliff Min Ltd	11%	-9%	43%	-29%	0.01	$11,489,034
BM8	Battery Age Minerals	11%	-5%	-61%	-59%	0.205	$16,936,009
LRS	Latin Resources Ltd	10%	53%	-14%	181%	0.275	$796,234,767
GT1	Greentechnology	10%	-13%	-62%	-67%	0.275	$90,416,848
IPT	Impact Minerals	10%	0%	-21%	57%	0.011	$31,511,743
SYA	Sayona Mining Ltd	9%	13%	-60%	-63%	0.07	$730,824,017
SGQ	St George Min Ltd	9%	6%	-13%	-49%	0.035	$33,460,375
TON	Triton Min Ltd	9%	14%	-29%	-33%	0.024	$35,911,271
EMS	Eastern Metals	9%	13%	-33%	-51%	0.036	$2,884,919
RAS	Ragusa Minerals Ltd	9%	-14%	-45%	-69%	0.036	$5,133,556
AL8	Alderan Resource Ltd	9%	-14%	-8%	-14%	0.006	$5,534,307
GW1	Greenwing Resources	9%	25%	-46%	-55%	0.125	$23,523,950
PL3	Patagonia Lithium	9%	-7%	-32%	0%	0.125	$6,386,705
VUL	Vulcan Energy	9%	14%	-33%	-56%	2.79	$490,408,073
LRD	Lordresourceslimited	8%	-19%	-28%	-61%	0.065	$2,339,324
LRD	Lordresourceslimited	8%	-19%	-28%	-61%	0.065	$2,339,324
RDN	Raiden Resources Ltd	8%	-5%	310%	763%	0.041	$106,175,499
QPM	Queensland Pacific	8%	-2%	-45%	-50%	0.055	$110,689,717
LPM	Lithium Plus	8%	-17%	28%	-7%	0.345	$30,955,752
MHK	Metalhawk.	8%	-10%	8%	-15%	0.14	$13,420,950
CAI	Calidus Resources	8%	8%	26%	-20%	0.215	$131,531,381
NVA	Nova Minerals Ltd	7%	33%	26%	-46%	0.365	$75,920,386
SBR	Sabre Resources	7%	-14%	19%	-18%	0.031	$12,311,018
OBM	Ora Banda Mining Ltd	7%	2%	96%	192%	0.245	$409,624,769
BUR	Burleyminerals	6%	6%	-28%	-25%	0.165	$16,713,965
DTM	Dart Mining NL	6%	6%	-58%	-69%	0.017	$3,868,854
LKE	Lake Resources	6%	2%	-56%	-83%	0.1325	$184,917,812
CHR	Charger Metals	6%	-27%	-64%	-60%	0.18	$11,997,871
WR1	Winsome Resources	6%	-4%	-33%	-11%	1.09	$195,126,804
AZI	Altamin Limited	6%	4%	-28%	-30%	0.055	$23,546,707
MLS	Metals Australia	6%	6%	9%	-17%	0.037	$23,089,339
ASN	Anson Resources Ltd	6%	-2%	-8%	-23%	0.1425	$180,003,484
DLI	Delta Lithium	5%	7%	-42%	4%	0.48	$323,409,419
PLN	Pioneer Lithium	5%	-26%	0%	0%	0.195	$5,685,000
CRR	Critical Resources	5%	-13%	-50%	-53%	0.02	$37,334,856
NMT	Neometals Ltd	5%	8%	-57%	-74%	0.205	$130,764,966
PMT	Patriotbatterymetals	5%	8%	-34%	51%	1.135	$514,633,556
ALY	Alchemy Resource Ltd	5%	5%	-34%	-54%	0.0105	$11,780,763
WYX	Western Yilgarn NL	5%	5%	-19%	-19%	0.105	$4,965,750
JBY	James Bay Minerals	5%	-15%	0%	0%	0.315	$10,220,175
JNO	Juno	5%	-9%	52%	10%	0.105	$20,013,979
PNN	Power Minerals Ltd	5%	-6%	-42%	-58%	0.225	$18,348,981
LEL	Lithenergy	5%	-5%	-34%	-26%	0.57	$59,230,750
LNR	Lanthanein Resources	5%	92%	-23%	-45%	0.0115	$14,832,837
TMB	Tambourahmetals	4%	-25%	33%	14%	0.12	$9,123,439
TMB	Tambourahmetals	4%	-25%	33%	14%	0.12	$9,123,439
MQR	Marquee Resource Ltd	4%	-4%	-42%	-30%	0.026	$10,747,994
PLS	Pilbara Min Ltd	4%	10%	-19%	6%	3.98	$11,887,398,383
AAJ	Aruma Resources Ltd	4%	-13%	-37%	-49%	0.027	$5,316,071
MIN	Mineral Resources.	4%	16%	-1%	-9%	70.53	$13,663,049,960
MM1	Midasmineralsltd	4%	12%	-59%	-28%	0.145	$12,144,614
THR	Thor Energy PLC	3%	7%	-25%	-50%	0.03	$5,581,090
WES	Wesfarmers Limited	3%	10%	17%	26%	57.62	$64,693,471,823
ZEO	Zeotech Limited	3%	-13%	-27%	-30%	0.033	$55,469,538
CXO	Core Lithium	3%	-1%	-70%	-74%	0.2675	$534,233,886
RON	Roninresourcesltd	3%	-18%	16%	9%	0.18	$6,812,627
FTL	Firetail Resources	3%	-8%	-30%	-52%	0.077	$11,465,728
A11	Atlantic Lithium	3%	-23%	-25%	-34%	0.41	$249,017,274
GL1	Globallith	2%	-7%	-24%	-36%	1.18	$313,619,685
INF	Infinity Lithium	2%	-4%	7%	-20%	0.096	$46,259,209
PGD	Peregrine Gold	2%	-6%	-11%	-36%	0.245	$15,015,846
FG1	Flynngold	2%	-31%	-13%	-48%	0.052	$7,577,661
MMC	Mitremining	2%	0%	-13%	-7%	0.26	$15,305,659
LPI	Lithium Pwr Int Ltd	2%	2%	88%	26%	0.555	$350,664,412
FRS	Forrestaniaresources	2%	-8%	-68%	-80%	0.0285	$4,530,001
RIO	Rio Tinto Limited	2%	9%	19%	17%	136.57	$50,359,191,591
IGO	IGO Limited	1%	9%	-40%	-32%	9.11	$6,853,273,708
REC	Rechargemetals	1%	-15%	-75%	-31%	0.093	$10,578,438
AVZ	AVZ Minerals Ltd	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.78	$2,752,409,203
LIT	Lithium Australia	0%	3%	-9%	-33%	0.03	$36,665,750
AKE	Allkem Limited	0%	16%	-39%	-13%	9.83	$6,304,350,967
RLC	Reedy Lagoon Corp.	0%	-17%	-14%	-48%	0.005	$3,097,704
TKL	Traka Resources	0%	-5%	-36%	-52%	0.003	$2,625,988
GSM	Golden State Mining	0%	-17%	-67%	-65%	0.015	$4,190,559
TEM	Tempest Minerals	0%	0%	-38%	-65%	0.008	$4,091,068
KGD	Kula Gold Limited	0%	-50%	-12%	-40%	0.015	$6,290,487
ENT	Enterprise Metals	0%	33%	0%	-60%	0.004	$3,207,884
STM	Sunstone Metals Ltd	0%	-13%	-46%	-62%	0.014	$52,316,023
EFE	Eastern Resources	0%	-20%	-20%	-72%	0.008	$9,935,572
SRZ	Stellar Resources	0%	0%	-38%	-38%	0.008	$8,043,185
AOA	Ausmon Resorces	0%	0%	-14%	-57%	0.003	$3,020,998
SRI	Sipa Resources Ltd	0%	19%	25%	-22%	0.025	$5,703,953
RGL	Riversgold	0%	-25%	-20%	-60%	0.012	$10,644,276
EPM	Eclipse Metals	0%	-11%	-50%	-50%	0.008	$16,500,434
MNS	Magnis Energy Tech	0%	-13%	-70%	-89%	0.042	$50,378,922
M2R	Miramar	0%	11%	-40%	-72%	0.021	$3,126,260
WMC	Wiluna Mining Corp	0%	0%	0%	0%	0.205	$74,238,031
LLL	Leolithiumlimited	0%	0%	-53%	4%	0.505	$498,553,663
RMX	Red Mount Min Ltd	0%	-14%	-25%	-40%	0.003	$8,020,728
ENT	Enterprise Metals	0%	33%	0%	-60%	0.004	$3,207,884
XTC	XTC Lithium Limited	0%	0%	-17%	-67%	0.2	$17,528,272
IEC	Intra Energy Corp	0%	-25%	-40%	-63%	0.003	$5,812,736
ICL	Iceni Gold	0%	-16%	-25%	-34%	0.053	$12,472,571
TMX	Terrain Minerals	0%	25%	-29%	-17%	0.005	$6,767,139
MHC	Manhattan Corp Ltd	0%	0%	-50%	-27%	0.004	$11,747,919
ANX	Anax Metals Ltd	0%	7%	-52%	-43%	0.03	$14,427,529
ADG	Adelong Gold Limited	0%	-17%	-38%	-29%	0.005	$3,498,278
PFE	Panteraminerals	0%	-13%	-40%	-53%	0.052	$6,896,373
CXB0	ASRA MINERALS LTD.	0%	-11%	0%	-59%	0.00004	$6,515,983
PFE	Panteraminerals	0%	-13%	-40%	-53%	0.052	$6,896,373
PSC	Prospect Res Ltd	-1%	1%	-45%	-27%	0.088	$41,236,545
PLL	Piedmont Lithium Inc	-1%	9%	-51%	-35%	0.42	$158,083,824
AZS	Azure Minerals	-1%	-7%	145%	1540%	3.69	$1,697,114,428
FBM	Future Battery	-1%	-3%	-41%	34%	0.071	$38,964,187
WC8	Wildcat Resources	-2%	-9%	467%	2733%	0.68	$831,058,844
TOR	Torque Met	-2%	22%	57%	22%	0.22	$28,913,298
TOR	Torque Met	-2%	22%	57%	22%	0.22	$28,913,298
EMC	Everest Metals Corp	-2%	-2%	-58%	1%	0.08	$13,062,649
EMC	Everest Metals Corp	-2%	-2%	-58%	1%	0.08	$13,062,649
ADV	Ardiden Ltd	-3%	-3%	-42%	-42%	0.175	$10,940,564
MXR	Maximus Resources	-3%	-37%	13%	-15%	0.034	$11,221,202
LLO	Lion One Metals Ltd	-3%	-1%	26%	-15%	0.995	$14,142,041
AZL	Arizona Lithium Ltd	-3%	-21%	-3%	-50%	0.031	$113,858,997
GRE	Greentechmetals	-3%	-7%	-20%	218%	0.445	$31,491,708
LRV	Larvottoresources	-4%	-17%	-39%	-49%	0.072	$14,874,940
QXR	Qx Resources Limited	-4%	-20%	26%	-43%	0.024	$25,531,791
CY5	Cygnus Metals Ltd	-4%	-14%	-56%	-68%	0.12	$39,360,484
RAG	Ragnar Metals Ltd	-4%	0%	-7%	101%	0.023	$11,375,543
OCN	Oceanalithiumlimited	-4%	-4%	-71%	-67%	0.115	$6,369,180
DAL	Dalaroometalsltd	-4%	-37%	-73%	-78%	0.022	$1,820,500
MAN	Mandrake Res Ltd	-5%	5%	-9%	5%	0.042	$26,477,677
AX8	Accelerate Resources	-5%	-18%	105%	78%	0.041	$24,070,274
VMC	Venus Metals Cor Ltd	-5%	-9%	-9%	27%	0.1	$18,972,868
DRE	Dreadnought Resources Ltd	-5%	-8%	-43%	-72%	0.0295	$104,372,189
VSR	Voltaic Strategic	-5%	-14%	-79%	-19%	0.019	$9,178,974
TG6	Tgmetalslimited	-5%	-52%	241%	226%	0.375	$20,823,174
NKL	Nickelxltd	-5%	-38%	-45%	-54%	0.037	$3,249,161
AM7	Arcadia Minerals	-5%	-14%	-37%	-64%	0.073	$7,960,657
NIS	Nickelsearch	-5%	-32%	20%	-55%	0.071	$15,588,599
PAT	Patriot Lithium	-6%	-11%	-37%	-36%	0.17	$12,333,084
SCN	Scorpion Minerals	-6%	-27%	-64%	-54%	0.032	$13,512,054
MRR	Minrex Resources Ltd	-6%	0%	14%	-50%	0.016	$18,442,748
SCN	Scorpion Minerals	-6%	-27%	-64%	-54%	0.032	$13,512,054
HAW	Hawthorn Resources	-6%	12%	-34%	-19%	0.093	$31,156,452
LPD	Lepidico Ltd	-6%	-12%	-32%	-53%	0.0075	$61,106,464
SLM	Solismineralsltd	-6%	-19%	-86%	100%	0.15	$11,382,022
CC9	Chariot Corporation	-7%	-10%	0%	0%	0.57	$39,599,047
IR1	Irismetals	-7%	-24%	-46%	-21%	0.915	$119,773,608
KAI	Kairos Minerals Ltd	-7%	-13%	-19%	-33%	0.014	$36,692,771
LM1	Leeuwin Metals Ltd	-7%	-30%	-65%	0%	0.14	$6,442,188
FL1	First Lithium Ltd	-7%	-26%	194%	194%	0.53	$36,076,609
BYH	Bryah Resources Ltd	-7%	-7%	-19%	-49%	0.013	$5,636,894
TKM	Trek Metals Ltd	-8%	-24%	-60%	-51%	0.037	$20,523,074
BMM	Balkanminingandmin	-8%	-11%	-41%	-64%	0.12	$7,814,456
EG1	Evergreenlithium	-8%	-19%	-47%	0%	0.175	$9,840,250
KTA	Krakatoa Resources	-8%	-25%	38%	-25%	0.033	$16,995,860
OLY	Olympio Metals Ltd	-9%	-25%	-49%	-28%	0.105	$6,677,947
IMI	Infinitymining	-10%	17%	17%	-49%	0.14	$11,628,361
AS2	Askarimetalslimited	-11%	-11%	-46%	-64%	0.155	$13,606,287
A8G	Australasian Metals	-12%	-12%	30%	-21%	0.15	$8,860,484
ZNC	Zenith Minerals Ltd	-12%	11%	67%	-43%	0.15	$52,857,132
KOB	Kobaresourceslimited	-13%	-9%	-55%	-50%	0.07	$7,379,167
ASR	Asra Minerals Ltd	-13%	-7%	0%	-65%	0.007	$11,402,970
SUM	Summitminerals	-13%	-20%	-34%	-34%	0.096	$4,718,056
L1M	Lightning Minerals	-14%	-20%	-25%	-27%	0.12	$5,911,509
1MC	Morella Corporation	-17%	-17%	-38%	-58%	0.005	$33,983,397
LIS	Lisenergylimited	-18%	-20%	-31%	-48%	0.165	$115,236,041
EMH	European Metals Hldg	-18%	-29%	-52%	-38%	0.395	$53,693,553
AVW	Avira Resources Ltd	-25%	0%	-40%	-50%	0.0015	$3,200,685
LSR	Lodestar Minerals	-25%	-25%	-25%	-40%	0.003	$8,093,589