Demand for petrol – and eventually oil – will decline as electric car revolution rolls on
Energy
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The rapid rate of growth expected in the electric car market is set to have a significant impact on the gasoline market, according to one industry commentator.
Electric vehicles now account for just 1 per cent of all car sales, but by 2030 they are tipped to make up a quarter of all sales.
“Certainly for oil it could see quite a sizeable disruption to gasoline demand,” ANZ Bank senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes told investors at the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) Convention in Perth.
“Those numbers do represent at risk — I suppose only 2 per cent of oil demand, but it would make up nearly 7 per cent of gasoline demand.
“Certainly countries like the US, which are heavily tilted towards the gasoline market would be much more impacted by that.”
>> Scroll down for a list of ASX-listed oil juniors
Internal combustion engine cars currently account for about 26 per cent of global oil consumption, according to Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, electric and hybrid vehicles displaced only about 50,000 barrels a day of oil in a world that is using 100 million barrels a day, according to IHS Markit.
Oil demand shouldn’t be affected too much by the electric car market in the next ten years — but that will change in the following decade says Morgan Stanley.
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Morgan Stanley predicts electric cars will account for 9 per cent of all sales in 2025, 16 per cent in 2030 and 64 per cent in 2040.
“Electric cars have the potential to reduce oil demand considerably in the long term,” the firm said in its “On the Charge” report released earlier this year.
“However, this is unlikely to be the case over the next 10 years, and possibly longer. Even assuming rapid adoption, EVs will likely displace less than 1 per cent of current oil demand by 2025.”
>> Here’s a recent list of ASX-listed oil juniors:
| ASX code | Oil junior | One-year price change | Price May 23 (intraday) | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EEG | EMPIRE ENERGY | 3.5 | 0.036 | 45.5M |
| BYE | BYRON ENERGY | 2.45 | 0.345 | 232.9M |
| LKO | LAKES OIL | 2 | 0.003 | 82.9M |
| REY | REY RESOURCES | 1.68292682927 | 0.22 | 46.7M |
| HZN | HORIZON | 1.54545454545 | 0.14 | 169.3M |
| SEH | SINO GAS | 1.52873563218 | 0.22 | 466.1M |
| HE8 | HELIOS ENERGY | 1.45833333333 | 0.059 | 87.7M |
| FDM | FREEDOM | 1.4347826087 | 0.28 | 254.9M |
| OEL | OTTO ENERGY | 1.36666666667 | 0.071 | 107.2M |
| BRU | BURU ENERGY | 1.3602484472 | 0.38 | 166.3M |
| BUL | BLUE ENERGY | 1.32142857143 | 0.13 | 150.1M |
| COI | COMET RIDGE | 1.29032258065 | 0.355 | 240.2M |
| TEG | TRIANGLE ENERGY | 1.11111111111 | 0.095 | 20.7M |
| BAS | BASS OIL | 1 | 0.004 | 10.4M |
| PCL | PANCONTINENTAL | 1 | 0.004 | 21.0M |
| EXR | ELIXIR PETROLEUM | 0.972972972973 | 0.073 | 16.2M |
| ATS | AUSTRALIS | 0.760869565217 | 0.405 | 362.0M |
| CVN | CARNARVON PETROL | 0.707317073171 | 0.14 | 161.4M |
| PVE | PO VALLEY ENERGY | 0.7 | 0.034 | 20.2M |
| TOU | TLOU ENERGY | 0.52380952381 | 0.16 | 54.4M |
| BRK | BROOKSIDE ENERGY | 0.444444444444 | 0.013 | 12.8M |
| MEL | METGASCO | 0.428571428571 | 0.06 | 23.9M |
| TDO | 3D OIL | 0.355555555556 | 0.061 | 15.4M |
| EOR | ENHANCED | 0.333333333333 | 0.008 | 7.9M |
| PVD | PURA VIDA ENERGY (suspended) | 0.307692307692 | 0.051 | -- |
| NGY | NUENERGY GAS | 0.294117647059 | 0.044 | 65.2M |
| AVD | ANTILLES | 0.235294117647 | 0.021 | 3.4M |
| GBP | GLOBAL PETROLEUM | 0.2 | 0.03 | 6.7M |
| IPB | IPB PETROLEUM | 0.157894736842 | 0.022 | 3.4M |
| KEY | KEY PETROLEUM | 0.142857142857 | 0.008 | 10.8M |
| ELK | ELK PETROLEUM | 0.119402985075 | 0.075 | 111.6M |
| TAP | TAP OIL | 0.117647058824 | 0.076 | 31.9M |
| CUE | CUE ENERGY | 0.105263157895 | 0.063 | 43.3M |
| RLE | REAL ENERGY | 0.1 | 0.099 | 26.8M |
| AJQ | ARMOUR ENERGY | 0.0975609756098 | 0.09 | 36.5M |
| GGX | GAS2GRID | 0 | 0.003 | 3.4M |
| EMP | EMPEROR ENERGY | 0 | 0.003 | 2.7M |
| JKA | JACKA RESOURCES | 0 | 0.002 | 921.7k |
| RAW | RAWSON OIL | 0 | 0.044 | 4.6M |
| SEA | SUNDANCE ENERGY | 0 | 0.072 | 501.3M |
| WBE | WHITEBARK ENERGY | 0 | 0.007 | 6.9M |
| COE | COOPER ENERGY | -0.0053050397878 | 0.375 | 592.4M |
| CTP | CENTRAL PETROL | -0.00584795321637 | 0.17 | 120.2M |
| AOW | AMERICAN PATRIOT | -0.037037037037 | 0.026 | 6.9M |
| GAS | STATE GAS (*listed Oct 2017) | -0.05 | 0.19 | 25.6M |
| MPO | MOLOPO ENERGY (suspended) | -0.0666666666667 | 0.14 | -- |
| ICN | ICON ENERGY | -0.0769230769231 | 0.024 | 14.3M |
| STX | STRIKE ENERGY | -0.0875 | 0.073 | 81.0M |
| ENB | ENEABBA GAS | -0.125 | 0.007 | 5.2M |
| 88E | 88 ENERGY | -0.145833333333 | 0.041 | 233.4M |
| AOK | AUSTEX OIL (suspended) | -0.190476190476 | 0.017 | -- |
| EGO | EMPIRE OIL & GAS (suspended) | -0.25 | 0.12 | -- |
| PSA | PETSEC ENERGY | -0.266666666667 | 0.11 | 36.1M |
| BUY | BOUNTY OIL & GAS | -0.285714285714 | 0.005 | 5.7M |
| KPL | KINA PETROLEUM | -0.29 | 0.071 | 27.2M |
| MAY | MELBANA ENERGY | -0.315789473684 | 0.013 | 16.7M |
| TMK | TAMASKA OIL & GAS | -0.333333333333 | 0.002 | 5.9M |
| ABL | ABILENE | -0.333333333333 | 0.006 | 2.4M |
| SGC | SACGASCO | -0.338461538462 | 0.043 | 12.8M |
| OEX | OILEX | -0.4 | 0.003 | 6.0M |
| RRS | RANGE RESOURCES | -0.428571428571 | 0.004 | 30.4M |
| TPD | TALON PETROLEUM | -0.428571428571 | 0.004 | 4.1M |
| WEL | WINCHESTER | -0.4375 | 0.045 | 12.8M |
| SSN | SAMSON | -0.5 | 0.002 | 4.9M |
| FPL | FREMONT | -0.7 | 0.009 | 6.1M |
| WOF | WOLF PETROLEUM | -0.71875 | 0.009 | 6.2M |
| TNP | TRIPLE ENERGY | -0.75 | 0.06 | 2.6M |
| JPR | JUPITER ENERGY | -0.784 | 0.054 | 8.3M |
