The RBA has ‘little choice’ but to cut interest rates today; which stocks could benefit?
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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is tipped to cut interest rates further at its monthly board meeting.
COVID-19 pushed Australia into its first recession in three decades and into its biggest quarterly drop in GDP since records began in 1959.
Australia’s cash rate was already at a record low of 0.75 per cent at the start of 2020 but the RBA quickly reduced it to 0.25 per cent by March.
While the worst of the health aspect pandemic is seemingly over in Australia, the economic impact is expected to last for several years.
‘The Airport Economist’ Tim Harcourt bluntly told Stockhead yesterday, “(The RBA) have little choice.”
BetaShares’ David Bassanese similarly noted the bank needed to be seen to be doing something in the face of low inflation and high unemployment.
CommSec’s Ryan Felsman expects not just a cut but interest rates to stay low for at least three years.
While consumer confidence is recovering he pointed to elevated joblessness and the uncertainty of what will happen when loan repayment holidays expire as influential factors.
ASX stocks in the lending sector are the most obvious.
The latter three stocks have only joined the ASX in the last 18 months. MoneyMe and QuickFee are above their IPO prices while Plenti, which listed last month, has not recovered since its decline on its opening day.
|PLT||Plenti Group Limited||1.05||-16||0||$185.7M|
|MOC||Mortgage Choice Ltd||1.03||-5||49||$133.7M|
|CGR||Cml Group Ltd||0.325||-2||-36||$74.0M|
|AFG||Aust Finance Grp||1.96||-8||29||$539.4M|
|YBR||Yellow Brick Road||0.084||1||35||$27.2M|
|RMC||Resimac Grp Ltd||1.35||-7||60||$566.8M|
But for these stocks, the opposite has happened – many of them reported increased lending volumes and profits during COVID-19.
The change has many concerned the responsibility for assessing the suitability of credit will shift more from lenders to customers.