How will Australia's housing downturn impact these ASX stocks?

The COVID-19 impact is being felt in Australia’s housing market, where prices fell for a third straight month in July. UBS analysts, led by Pieter Stoltz, have assessed how these property blues will impact real estate-exposed ASX stocks.

The analysis forms part of some detailed research released this week from the UBS equities desk to accompany August reporting season.

Looking at the macro environment, the analysts pointed to the ongoing decline in auction clearance rates, which are “consistent with weaker housing prices”.

The also noted sluggish activity in the Australian Performance of Construction Index (PCI), which ties in with weakness in new building approvals.

Together, those factors could have a material bearing on stocks that derive earnings from residential construction.

Breaking it down

Taking that into account, UBS then separated industry-linked stocks into two categories; direct or indirect exposure to the housing market.

Building and materials stocks facing a challenge from the macro headwinds outlined above were deemed to have direct exposure.

For companies with indirect exposure, UBS flagged discretionary retailers who could face a threat from a negative “wealth effect” — the correlation between falling house prices and a reduction in consumption (particularly for household items).

Below is a summary of the stocks with direct exposure, with a corresponding Buy, Sell or Neutral rating applied by UBS.

We’ve also included the bank’s forecast stock return (FSR), which it calculates as a combination of “price target upside and gross dividends per share”:

Code	Company	UBS Rating	FSR
CSR	CSR Ltd	Buy	37%
BIN	Bingo Industries	Buy	36%
BLD	Boral	Buy	17%
JHX	James Hardie Industries	Buy	14%
DHG	Domain Australia	Buy	5%
FBU	Fletcher Building	Buy	8%
REA	REA Group	Neutral	-3%
ABC	AdBri Ltd	Sell	-5%

Topping the list in terms of FSR was building products company CSR Ltd (ASX:CSR), which UBS said could achieve an upside share return of 37 per cent.

After falling by around 40 per cent during the COVID-19 selloff, shares in CSR jumped to a post-crisis high of around $4.50 before falling back to $3.60.

The analysts then selected 14 stocks with indirect exposure to falling house prices via a pullback discretionary spending.

And for that cohort they also leaned on the bullish side, with nine Buy ratings and five Neutral picks, and no Sell calls:

Code	Company	UBS Rating	FSR
FLT	Flight Centre	Buy	N/A
MYR	Myer	Buy	N/A
CTD	Corporate Travel Mgmt	Buy	183%
WEB	Webjet	Buy	78%
AMA	AMA Group	Buy	45%
HVN	Harvey Norman	Buy	14%
ASG	Autosports	Buy	9%
OMV	Premier Investments	Buy	5%
ADH	Adairs	Buy	-2%
SUL	Super Retail	Neutral	4%
GUD	G.U.D.	Neutral	3%
JBH	JB Hi-fi	Neutral	0%
WES	Wesfarmers	Neutral	-10%
KGN	Kogan.com	Neutral	-35%

Among the stocks in the indirect group, UBS put a big upside premium on Corporate Travel Management (ASX:CTD), which it said could more than double if everything goes its way.

They were also bullish on Webjet (ASX:WEB) and industrials company AMA Group (ASX:AMA). But after running hard in the wake of the post-COVID online sales frenzy, they were less optimistic that Kogan.com (ASX:KGN) could continue its strong run.