ASX Small Cap Lunch Wrap: Trump’s virus diagnosis means more unpredictability for investors

The United States election soap opera has new twist: President Donald Trump is COVID-19 positive. What does that mean for markets?

More unpredictability, probably.

Trump’s positive test for the virus adds another layer of uncertainty on a “growing list of imponderables” that is likely to heighten market volatility in coming weeks, reports Oxford Economics.

While serious, Trump’s current condition is pure speculation.

If he doesn’t recover, history suggests the market response could be “steep but short”.

When John F Kennedy was shot and killed on November 22 1963, the S&P 500 plunged 2.8 per cent but quickly recovered within days.

If Trump recuperates — which is more probable — this market volatility won’t be over until an election winner is determined.

“While markets are pricing in greater volatility around the presidential election as a surge in mail-in votes raises the odds of a delay in declaring the new president, we fear a larger risk-off trade if a winner is not quickly declared,” Oxford Economics lead US economist Nancy Vanden Houten says.

“More severe market disruptions are an important risk if a winner is not immediately known.”

According to UBS, most market declines occur in the first four trading days after an uncertain election outcome.

In 1948, Harry Truman’s surprise victory sent the S&P 500 tumbling almost 4 per cent in one day.

It took 34 days for the winner to be decided in the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. In the two weeks following the election the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 5 per cent.

To Markets…

Last week’s 2.9 per cent tumble represented the Aussie market’s worst week since mid-April.

On Friday, US share markets fell but pared early losses after the White House reassured everyone that the US President was not yet incapacitated.

On this public holiday Monday (for some!), the benchmark ASX200 index has reversed Friday losses with a gain of 122 points – or a massive 2.1 per cent – in the first hour of trade.

It held onto the gains to be up 2.19 per cent to 5,918.3 points by 12:30pm AEDT.

WINNERS

Here are the best performing ASX small cap stocks at 12pm Monday, October 5:

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CODE	NAME	PRICE	% CHANGE	MARKET CAP
PPY	Papyrus Australia	0.027	59	$ 5,139,847.98
VR1	Vection Technologies	0.185	42	$ 109,872,993.75
JHL	Jayex Healthcare	0.053	39	$ 7,651,794.91
ANL	Amani Gold	0.002	33	$ 11,757,295.12
CCE	Carnegie Clean Energy	0.002	33	$ 16,712,178.68
CFE	Cape Lambert Resources	0.008	33	$ 10,900,223.34
RFN	Reffind	0.002	33	$ 1,864,887.93
RAN	Range International	0.022	29	$ 6,143,314.55
REE	Rarex Limited	0.145	26	$ 42,275,754.33
WCN	White Cliff Minerals	0.015	25	$ 5,839,198.58
8CO	8Common	0.135	23	$ 20,120,882.98
IXR	Ionic Rare Earths	0.017	21	$ 37,745,793.20
BRK	Brookside Energy	0.006	20	$ 6,410,000.00
SMI	Santana Minerals	0.003	20	$ 5,088,061.22
RTE	Retech Tech Co	0.335	20	$ 65,215,537.24
EMN	Euromanganese	0.22	19	$ 20,284,064.15
EMT	Emetals	0.021	17	$ 7,203,600.00
AOA	Ausmon Resorces	0.007	17	$ 3,909,236.06
FPL	Fremont Petroleum	0.0035	17	$ 11,775,537.56
GLA	Gladiator Resources	0.0035	17	$ 6,983,502.51

Vection (ASX:VR1), the ASX’s only virtual reality stock, capped off a 10-fold rise in six months after joining a major Facebook program.

And Texas-focused oil play Brookside Energy (ASX:BRK) has told shareholders all necessary surface equipment for production at its Mitchell well is in place.

LOSERS

Here are the worst performing ASX small cap stocks at 12pm Monday, October 5:

Swipe or scroll to reveal the full table. Click headings to sort.

CODE	COMPANY	PRICE	% CHANGE	MARKET CAP
DCX	Discovex Resources	0.0045	-36	$ 8,373,148.53
ROG	Red Sky Energy	0.002	-33	$ 6,108,549.83
VPR	Volt Power Group	0.002	-33	$ 27,508,600.67
CLZ	Classic Minerals	0.0015	-25	$ 26,084,103.96
MBK	Metal Bank	0.008	-20	$ 11,845,083.04
RBR	RBR Group	0.009	-18	$ 11,008,030.95
AAJ	Aruma Resources	0.0075	-17	$ 10,254,725.13
CAE	Cannindah Resources	0.02	-17	$ 5,797,988.45
MLS	Metals Australia	0.0025	-17	$ 10,945,058.33
MSR	Manas Resources	0.006	-14	$ 18,502,137.42
RNX	Renegade Exploration	0.006	-14	$ 4,988,386.47
CYQ	Cycliq Group	0.0035	-13	$ 7,838,919.93
EFE	Eastern Iron	0.007	-13	$ 3,789,483.47
VIC	Victory Mines	0.0035	-13	$ 17,665,285.96
GTG	Genetic Technologies	0.008	-11	$ 74,355,540.69
APH	AP Hemp	0.17	-11	$ 9,355,570.55
TGN	Tungsten Mining	0.13	-10	$ 111,710,069.44
AEV	Avenira	0.018	-10	$ 17,257,056.36
BIQ	Buildingiq	0.009	-10	$ 3,736,729.49