Bitcoin is ‘fastest horse in the race’, but looming recession will temper risk assets: Bloomberg analyst
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Bloomberg Intelligence‘s Senior Macro Strategist Mike McGlone has some good news and bad news for Bitcoin hodlers, although it’s mostly the former.
In a new live stream video posted this week by Scott “Wolf of All Streets” Melker, with the topic being “hyperbitcoinization“, McGlone indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) could well be the best asset for macro investors.
The analyst, who has form as somewhat of a longer-term Bitcoin bull and is also a strong believer in gold’s bullish narrative, did, however, warn that an impending recession would likely curtail any 2023 gains for the OG digital asset and indeed other “risk assets”.
He’s certainly not the lone macro-analytical ranger predicting recession this year. In fact, he’s targeting Q3, given OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) surprise decision on the weekend to reduce daily oil output, which McGlone noted makes a recession more likely, along with further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.
Oanda analyst Edward Moya has pretty much been saying the same thing, as quoted in Stockhead‘s morning’s Market Highlights round-ups just lately.
“We had our morning call this morning,” said McGlone in the live stream, “and our [Bloomberg] economist Anna Wong said, Yeah, their base case is for that recession to kick in Q3. Starting to move it a little forward now. OPEC is helping that. Fed tightening is helping that. So all assets have to go down. That means Bitcoin, too. It’s the fastest horse in the race. So I’m overall, certainly relatively bullish.
“But if I expect the stock market still to drop a third from here, I got to expect that weakness and that’s still my base case. And crude oil now is kind of accelerating that issue. OPEC is just admitting that they’re seeing the global demand problem kicking in and they’re responding as a rational cartel would do within the economic rationality.”
The highest-ever price for #gold at the end of a quarter may presage an enduring bull market. The metal is up and #crudeoil is down as of March 31 on a 12- and 120-month basis, and since 2007, just before the financial crisis. #OPEC+ production cuts are typical in bear markets pic.twitter.com/4zslxV0BNp
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 3, 2023
One key thing in Bitcoin’s favour, said McGlone is that, even amid all the regulatory crackdown concerns regarding crypto in the US, Bitcoin’s decentralised strength and the fact that it’s been labelled a commodity, should shield it from being targeted in any meaningful way by US regulators and government.
“That’s the key thing where Bitcoin sticks out,” said McGlone. “You can’t do anything to this and you can’t kill it. It’s just unprecedented. It’s untouchable.
“You could make a case that Ethereum is a security when you hear about all these upgrades and people doing this and people doing that to make it better. I’m like, okay, well that’s kind of scary. You can’t do that to Bitcoin. It’s just why it’s fine and impressive.”
With recession concerns still in mind, McGlone recently suggested that Bitcoin reaching a price of at least US$100k is inevitable and simply “a matter of time”.
He also has a thesis that Bitcoin should outperform gold over time and has described BTC as “the world’s most fluid 24/7 trading vehicle” and a potential “high-beta version of gold”.