Nova in prime position as gold soars and Goldman sees US$4500/oz tail risk

• Gold prices have hit a fresh record of US$3500/oz and Goldman Sachs sees a tail-risk scenario of up to US$4500
• Nova Minerals has a near-term gold project that counts as one of the largest in a tier-1 jurisdiction
• Estelle project in Alaska also features high-grade antimony as well as gallium – two critical minerals banned by China for US export

Special Report: Gold scaled another record high of US$3500/oz on Tuesday thanks to a renewed flight to safety and US dollar weakness that have lifted spot price gains to more than US$700 an ounce since the start of 2025.

Just ahead of the post-Easter surge, Goldman Sachs revised its year-end 2025 price target to introduce a tail-risk scenario of up to US$4500/oz.

As well as the usual factors behind a yellow metal rush, the global investment bank also cites demand from Chinese insurers’ and talk of a ‘Mar a Lago Accord’, a sort of rewiring of global finance led by the Trump Administration.

Goldman has now set its upper boundary year-end gold price at US$3520/oz, mainly due to higher than forecast ETF inflows and persistent, large-scale central bank purchases.

And with three Federal Reserve rate cuts widely tipped by early 2026 – especially after Trump’s latest pressure on the Fed – ETF inflows into non-interest paying gold are likely to continue.

History also shows that inflows can overshoot baseline expectations in extended periods of macro uncertainty like we’re seeing now with tariff tension – and as we did during Covid-19.

That uncertainty feeds into Goldman’s view that central bank buying will jump further, particularly in China.

Another move China has made to strengthen its financial resilience is allowing insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets under management in gold.

The new policy has not yet translated into significant inflows in the two months since its introduction but, importantly, Goldman expects latent demand to emerge during corrections and provide a stabilising effect.

Then there’s talk of a Mar-a-Lago Accord, a concept which involves the US getting other key economies to agree to pump up their own currencies and help devalue the US dollar.

It was outlined last year by economist Stephen Miran, who has since been appointed chairperson of the US Council of Economic Advisers. The idea’s name refers not only to Trump’s Florida residence but also to the Plaza Accord of 1985, in which America’s major allies agreed at the Plaza Hotel to devalue the US dollar and make American exports cheaper.

US dollar priced gold also becomes comparatively less expensive for foreign buyers when the dollar weakens, potentially increasing demand and driving up prices.

While Goldman remains cautious about the mooted accord, it does acknowledge the hedging utility and appeal of gold during heightened and ongoing focus on US policy risks.

Nova eyes near term production

One of the top ASX stocks to watch as the gold bulls continue their run is Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA), whose 9.9Moz Estelle project is one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold projects in a tier-1 jurisdiction.

Now debt free after the $10.85 million sale of a non-core investment and extinguishing debt with Nebari, Nova is ready for a break-out year at the project in Alaska’s prolific Tintina gold belt.

To fast-track development, Nova has commenced mine engineering and optimisation studies at RPM, which will inform pre-feasibility study that’s already been started.

Also ongoing are metallurgical studies, environmental test work, infrastructure permitting and work to update the mineral resource estimate for gold and antimony.

The PFS and upcoming targeted exploration at other prospects will inform a decision on whether to develop start-up mine at RPM or a larger-scale option.

The latter option would include 6.64Moz Korbel deposit, part of the Korbel Valley, which has a current resource of 8.65Moz and remains open from surface.

Nova is also advancing a Korbel pit design which will be used to demonstrate the potential of an expanded project.

10Moz-plus target

Nova is targeting a 10Moz-plus resource at the project, which hosts more than 20 prospects, including four large and shallow IRGS (intrusion related gold system) deposits.

A priority for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere field season is the near-term 1.24Moz RPM deposit.

Drilling will start soon to follow up on last year’s program that produced 20 broad intercepts of more than 5g/t gold from close to surface, including one of 2m averaging 52.7g/t gold. The program also extended RPM North’s high-grade core zone starting at surface.

The most recent demonstration of the strong potential for resource growth came from the Wombat prospect, where the rock sampling this year returned 360g/t and 93.2g/t gold.

High-grade critical mineral gallium – whose exports to the US have been banned by dominant producer China – was additionally found at the prospect in the heart of the Estelle claim block.

Critical opportunity

Nova is also focused on defining a gold-antimony resource at the Stibium discovery within Estelle, which was recently listed by independent resources expert RFC Ambrian as one of only nine potentially viable near-term antimony projects across the globe.

The US Department of Defense is offering multi-million dollar grants to companies who can advance antimony resources as the US races to develop its own sources of the mineral following China’s export ban last December.

Nova has submitted an application for DoD funding and believes that if it’s successful it could kickstart a material antimony focused drill campaign at the Stibium prospect in Q2 2025.

This article was developed in collaboration with Nova Minerals, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.