• Lithium boom to continue in 2022: S&P Global
  • Elon Musk under pressure to sell ~$US21bn worth of Tesla stock

Our High Voltage column wraps all the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, and vanadium.

 

S&P Global predicts that lithium supply shortages could persist in 2022, cobalt markets will be balanced by new supply from the DRC, and nickel prices will moderate as Indonesian output continues to expand.

S&P’s 2022 Metals and Mining Industry Outlook expects another record to be set in 2021 for global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales, despite a prolonged computer chip shortage which has constrained the full EV sales potential.

Both dynamics are expected to extend into 2022, it says.

“We remain cautiously optimistic on PEV sales in 2022, with risks to the downside,” it says.
 

Lithium

After three years of prices trending downward, the seaborne Asia lithium carbonate price and the ex-works China lithium carbonate price jumped 91% and 162%, respectively, in the first nine months of 2021, as unexpected demand increases combined with a slow expansion in supply.

“Active lithium M&A [mergers and acquisitions] and unprecedented financing for junior and intermediate explorers in 2021 are likely to improve medium-term supply; however, demand-supply mismatches could persist in 2022 if unexpected demand increases continue,” S&P says.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence says the real shortage hasn’t even hit yet.

Lithium prices over the past 2 years.

 

Cobalt

The cobalt export market has been hampered by low efficiency at the Port of Durban since May 2020, S&P says.

Durban port in South Africa is a key export channel for supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a global giant when it comes to production of the key battery metal.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the DRC produced 95,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2020, accounting for 68% of global output.

It’s where China – the world’s biggest consumer by far — gets ~90% of its supply.

“We expect supply flows to improve in 2022, however, boosted by the Mutanda [mine] restart and the Tenke Fugurume [operation] expansion,” it says.

“With battery-related demand expected to rise despite cobalt thrifting, the additional supply will balance the market.”

Cobalt prices since January 2017.

 

Nickel

The London Metal Exchange three-month, or LME 3M, nickel closing price surged to a seven-year high of $20,392 per tonne September 10 on dwindling LME stocks resulting from supply disruptions, recovering stainless steel sector activity and strong demand from the EV sector in 2021.

“We nevertheless expect primary nickel supply to increase faster than PEV-related demand in 2022, as Indonesian output continues to expand; this will put downward pressure on the LME 3M price in 2022,” S&P says.

However, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reckons Indonesian nickel may not have a global customer base due to its poor ESG credentials.

“Earlier this year, the American automaker [Tesla] signed a supply agreement with BHP, which Benchmark estimates to be worth up to 18,000 tpa of nickel,” it said early November.

“These deals reflect Tesla’s concern over its future nickel supply, as the automaker looks to lock in long-term supplies deals with operations that satisfy their sustainability requirements.”

“Such deals indicate that Tesla likely plans to exclude Indonesian nickel from its supply chain due to the poor ESG record of mining in the region, at least until post-2025.”

Nickel sulphate prices since May 2017.

 

Twitter decides: Elon Musk under pressure to sell Tesla stock

Yesterday, as a debate raged over how America’s richest people should be taxed, Musk tweeted this:

The outcome was clear. “I will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes,” Musk says.

CNBC has its own theory.

The stake was valued at about $US21 billion, according to Bloomberg. What impact this news has on the Tesla share price remains to be seen.

 

Here’s how a basket of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, and vanadium are performing>>>

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK RETURN % 1 MONTH RETURN % 6 MONTH RETURN % 1 YEAR RETURN % SHARE PRICE [MON INTRADAY] MARKET CAP
CAE Cannindah Resources 100 315 567 1900 0.56 $ 267,097,552.41
MNS Magnis Energy Tech 49 127 100 268 0.68 $ 566,955,073.06
ASN Anson Resources 48 84 108 361 0.1475 $ 144,101,070.33
LPD Lepidico 45 105 150 463 0.045 $ 252,250,032.46
RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp 45 83 100 282 0.042 $ 24,301,177.47
GW1 Greenwing Resources 42 56 36 217 0.475 $ 54,111,384.53
LEL Lithium Energy 41 81 1.03 $ 48,150,000.00
AZL Arizona Lithium 40 205 238 942 0.125 $ 228,795,570.90
PNN PepinNini Minerals 40 86 207 315 0.705 $ 29,351,736.54
EUR European Lithium 37 91 230 387 0.185 $ 196,319,336.74
GL1 Global Lithium 34 86 225 0.65 $ 53,385,537.60
TLG Talga Group 34 47 31 62 2.01 $ 577,652,970.93
AVZ AVZ Minerals 32 54 224 535 0.47 $ 1,705,631,520.40
FRS Forrestania Resources 32 55 0.48 $ 13,183,500.00
TON Triton Minerals 29 26 -4 -4 0.044 $ 45,378,722.68
GLN Galan Lithium 29 75 119 1258 1.63 $ 484,332,060.58
QEM QEM 26 43 5 117 0.215 $ 20,983,316.61
QXR Qx Resources 24 121 94 63 0.031 $ 19,672,507.31
CHR Charger Metals 23 28 0.53 $ 16,976,448.55
ESS Essential Metals 23 78 150 167 0.24 $ 57,028,793.76
INF Infinity Lithium 23 118 26 189 0.24 $ 92,900,801.03
SBR Sabre Resources 20 20 9 -33 0.006 $ 10,135,881.89
HXG Hexagon Energy 19 38 -9 123 0.105 $ 46,831,451.84
ADV Ardiden 18 18 0 -64 0.013 $ 27,993,359.63
AGY Argosy Minerals 17 84 282 608 0.34 $ 406,350,507.88
PSC Prospect Resources 17 24 238 367 0.49 $ 203,548,679.13
INR Ioneer 15 36 125 314 0.7875 $ 1,619,547,117.97
BKT Black Rock Mining 14 30 78 287 0.24 $ 200,993,138.96
HNR Hannans 14 60 591 591 0.041 $ 107,458,973.64
EMH European Metals Hldg 13 13 13 176 1.52 $ 186,031,509.95
BMM Balkanminingandmin 12 1 0.64 $ 22,100,000.00
LKE Lake Resources 12 93 244 1809 1.05 $ 1,318,590,027.57
LPI Lithium Pwr Int 12 60 66 146 0.48 $ 176,128,773.24
FFX Firefinch 11 13 75 329 0.665 $ 600,526,368.64
G88 Golden Mile Res 10 20 -34 -7 0.054 $ 8,892,953.06
CXO Core Lithium 10 59 137 1235 0.6275 $ 1,060,707,105.28
LIT Lithium Australia NL 10 20 15 181 0.1375 $ 135,767,569.37
AXE Archer Materials 10 4 87 233 1.6 $ 403,371,547.41
S2R S2 Resources 9 106 0 -29 0.185 $ 58,801,851.08
NKL Nickelx 8 -18 0.14 $ 7,000,500.00
TKL Traka Resources 7 25 -12 -35 0.015 $ 9,331,618.41
ARU Arafura Resource 7 15 42 153 0.235 $ 348,738,149.70
GBR Greatbould Resources 7 3 45 235 0.16 $ 55,371,550.40
ORE Orocobre 7 15 36 272 9.49 $ 6,247,750,742.80
SLZ Sultan Resources 6 -7 -34 -14 0.19 $ 12,516,190.02
BRB Breaker Res NL 6 36 95 111 0.38 $ 130,336,371.60
RFR Rafaella Resources 5 -6 -25 -6 0.079 $ 15,450,135.86
NWC New World Resources 5 18 -21 72 0.079 $ 130,093,508.07
RMX Red Mount Min 5 17 5 -25 0.0105 $ 14,644,583.02
JRL Jindalee Resources 4 23 -2 255 2.7 $ 143,375,509.90
BEM Blackearth Minerals 4 4 0 150 0.125 $ 26,087,432.04
PLS Pilbara Min 4 22 95 478 2.29 $ 7,007,967,315.36
RNU Renascor Res 4 13 65 1200 0.13 $ 245,521,400.80
A8G Australasian Gold 4 72 0.68 $ 28,202,755.68
ADD Adavale Resource 4 -3 -24 75 0.056 $ 17,927,689.18
LOT Lotus Resources 3 23 97 287 0.325 $ 315,152,201.98
PUR Pursuit Minerals 3 0 -44 169 0.035 $ 31,858,473.14
BOA Boadicea Resources 3 6 -38 0 0.19 $ 14,374,480.58
PVW PVW Res 2 149 171 207 0.46 $ 31,172,343.75
BUX Buxton Resources 2 45 33 35 0.096 $ 13,061,321.47
SYR Syrah Resources 2 23 11 175 1.28 $ 625,912,077.37
CHN Chalice Mining 1 14 -5 133 6.77 $ 2,389,391,478.60
MLX Metals X 1 6 38 368 0.365 $ 335,688,444.79
NMT Neometals 1 32 97 464 1.045 $ 592,246,507.68
NMT Neometals 1 32 97 464 1.045 $ 592,246,507.68
REE Rarex 1 2 -3 -16 0.0965 $ 43,352,947.58
MLS Metals Australia 0 0 -33 0 0.002 $ 10,477,114.72
QPM Queensland Pacific 0 -4 96 543 0.225 $ 298,234,888.82
MRC Mineral Commodities 0 -7 -36 -58 0.14 $ 74,898,688.76
AJM Altura Mining 0 0 0 0 0.07 $ 238,056,602.28
LML Lincoln Minerals 0 0 0 0 0.008 $ 4,599,869.49
MMC Mitremining 0 -7 0.215 $ 5,687,871.00
ATM Aneka Tambang 0 10 10 10 1.1 $ 1,434,013.90
AUZ Australian Mines 0 9 14 75 0.024 $ 107,588,977.85
VML Vital Metals 0 -2 -4 108 0.054 $ 224,936,086.54
LTR Liontown Resources 0 43 429 852 1.9 $ 3,679,018,385.35
IPT Impact Minerals 0 -7 -13 -30 0.014 $ 28,333,128.87
IXR Ionic Rare Earths 0 11 39 179 0.039 $ 132,303,581.05
GED Golden Deeps 0 20 9 -14 0.012 $ 9,310,217.28
VRC Volt Resources 0 3 25 200 0.03 $ 74,137,760.34
ESR Estrella Res 0 -8 -40 -68 0.034 $ 38,347,443.42
FGR First Graphene 0 9 -24 27 0.19 $ 104,522,987.34
DEV Devex Resources 0 22 32 35 0.31 $ 93,889,359.94
CZN Corazon 0 18 15 -35 0.039 $ 9,391,249.98
GSR Greenstone Resources 0 0 4 -26 0.025 $ 20,101,967.23
VIA Viagold Rare Earth 0 308 2339 10426 2 $ 166,624,808.00
BHP BHP Group 0 0 -25 6 36.41 $ 106,474,572,809.46
MIN Mineral Resources. -1 -10 -21 52 38.33 $ 7,153,645,992.68
LYC Lynas Rare Earths -1 12 27 145 7.24 $ 6,587,604,344.20
VR8 Vanadium Resources -1 16 63 225 0.078 $ 36,007,756.94
PEK Peak Resources -1 -15 -13 112 0.07 $ 135,174,987.35
MOH Moho Resources -2 -3 -22 -45 0.06 $ 7,294,973.32
EGR Ecograf -2 -5 6 253 0.6 $ 285,707,746.47
HAS Hastings Tech Met -2 11 44 108 0.26 $ 443,306,261.64
NTU Northern Min -2 21 30 68 0.052 $ 256,917,922.20
AML Aeon Metals . -2 -11 -30 -62 0.051 $ 43,962,920.09
PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc -2 15 -5 159 0.8425 $ 491,225,354.00
ARL Ardea Resources -2 9 0 9 0.48 $ 64,185,911.84
GAL Galileo Mining -4 -14 -21 -4 0.22 $ 37,822,771.13
AAJ Aruma Resources -2 7 34 -17 0.087 $ 10,832,689.26
STK Strickland Metals -2 35 238 -1 0.081 $ 95,216,232.93
SRL Sunrise -3 21 -19 -25 1.855 $ 173,811,706.47
ARN Aldoro Resources -3 36 54 329 0.515 $ 43,814,226.56
ARN Aldoro Resources -3 36 54 329 0.515 $ 43,814,226.56
OZL OZ Minerals -3 12 -1 64 24.38 $ 7,977,690,404.43
PRL Province Resources -3 3 -29 1206 0.15 $ 169,448,971.65
NIC Nickel Mines -3 10 -14 21 1.01 $ 2,552,754,486.77
CLA Celsius Resource -4 8 -42 -21 0.026 $ 28,275,158.19
HYM Hyperion Metals -4 -8 -17 292 0.96 $ 134,243,553.82
RBX Resource B -5 3 488 488 0.2 $ 7,590,041.15
ILU Iluka Resources -5 2 10 79 8.94 $ 3,728,412,633.02
PAM Pan Asia Metals -5 17 256 200 0.48 $ 36,829,322.00
WKT Walkabout Resources -5 -10 -42 46 0.19 $ 85,081,345.40
SRI Sipa Resources -5 -2 -21 -27 0.055 $ 11,229,754.09
VMC Venus Metals Cor -5 3 0 -25 0.18 $ 27,194,162.94
TMT Technology Metals -5 0 4 11 0.355 $ 69,017,976.27
POS Poseidon Nick -5 1 35 28 0.088 $ 263,500,519.24
ARR American Rare Earths -5 -3 101 75 0.175 $ 59,409,237.68
GME GME Resources -6 -6 20 44 0.066 $ 40,985,362.58
COB Cobalt Blue -6 34 17 310 0.41 $ 125,368,675.74
CTM Centaurus Metals -6 0 49 97 1.005 $ 347,166,342.52
RXL Rox Resources -6 -1 -32 -56 0.365 $ 57,526,779.11
MCR Mincor Resources NL -7 0 26 37 1.285 $ 646,603,725.60
JRV Jervois Global -7 7 29 112 0.53 $ 803,150,619.84
SGQ St George Min -7 -6 -34 -54 0.062 $ 38,297,410.91
ALY Alchemy Resource -8 -12 -23 -35 0.012 $ 10,083,651.78
TNG TNG -8 45 30 20 0.12 $ 149,939,644.80
SYA Sayona Mining -8 -5 322 2073 0.1475 $ 1,056,511,021.05
IGO IGO -8 3 16 98 8.85 $ 6,913,855,132.69
IGO IGO -8 3 16 98 8.85 $ 6,913,855,132.69
AVL Aust Vanadium -8 0 -4 100 0.022 $ 72,178,160.58
PAN Panoramic Resources -8 10 42 100 0.22 $ 430,691,940.84
MAN Mandrake Res -8 -4 -68 -4 0.055 $ 27,387,107.49
AOU Auroch Minerals -9 -3 -26 -14 0.16 $ 46,415,214.23
AR3 Austrare -9 -15 0.79 $ 33,587,495.25
VUL Vulcan Energy -9 -1 40 930 11.33 $ 1,539,264,239.59
CWX Carawine Resources -10 -5 -38 -38 0.185 $ 21,233,530.89
CNJ Conico -10 -20 17 17 0.035 $ 38,008,165.21
PGM Platina Resources -11 2 -19 49 0.064 $ 26,931,705.20
AQD Ausquest -12 -6 -21 -21 0.015 $ 13,994,227.13
AZS Azure Minerals -13 16 9 11 0.36 $ 108,407,502.35
NVA Nova Minerals -13 24 -10 -21 0.13 $ 243,275,070.20
BSX Blackstone -15 34 66 55 0.59 $ 202,034,992.10
LEG Legend Mining -16 -19 -56 -53 0.057 $ 165,308,143.26
MRD Mount Ridley Mines -19 8 -7 117 0.0065 $ 39,246,503.66