Good, Bad, Ugly: Gold miners roll up for reporting pre-season

• Gold miners continue to roll out early numbers for the June quarter
• Ramelius posts record year; Bellevue’s best cash generating quarter with gold prices at record levels
• But Northern Star cops a massive hit as FY26 guidance disappoints punters

After last week’s entree, some of the ASX’s top gold miners rolled out their early numbers for the June quarter and FY25 on Monday morning.

It’s provided a little window into how things are going for gold producers, who are under the microscope as investors chase mega profits off the back of a record gold price.

Of course, not all boats float at all times.

Some miners are weighed down by hedges, others are failing to meet production targets or analyst expectations.

Here’s how the market received five top gold miners as they floated a preview of their June reports.

Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS)

Ramelius has hit its straps ahead of its merger with Spartan Resources (ASX:SPR), beating guidance to deliver 301,664oz of gold for FY25.

That came off the back of 73,454oz in the June quarter, which outstripped upgraded guidance of 62,000-72,000oz.

The outcome? Underlying free cash flow of $207.8m for the quarter, with $694.9m for the year well over double the $315.8m generated in FY24.

With cash and gold on hand of $809.7m, there’s plenty of fuel in the tank for returns or more corporate deals even after the SPR takeover closes, with costs likely to come in at the lower end of the AISC guidance range of $1550-1650/oz.

MD Mark Zeptner said it was a fifth straight guidance make.

“In the near term, we are working towards completion of our previously announced transaction with Spartan Resources. We plan to embrace their exploration DNA which led to the discovery of the highest-grade undeveloped gold project in Australia, importantly right in our backyard,” he added.

“Our combined companies are currently well advanced on integration activities and associated studies in anticipation of Spartan shareholders approving the Scheme and other regulatory approvals being obtained by 31 July.”

Argonaut’s Hayden Bairstow said RMS’ result exceeded expectations, with quarterly gold production 7% above Argonaut’s forecasts and cash 30% higher than projected thanks to strong production and the timing of dividend and tax payments.

RBC’s Alex Barkley previously predicted the 300,000oz result, but warned some limits to RMS’ upside potential are on the horizon, with RBC tipping gold production of 212,000oz in FY26 and 178,000oz in FY27 alongside rising capex.

RMS shares rose close to 1% this morning.

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL)

Bellevue, beaten down by a string of production downgrades going out as far as 2029, generated a record $67m in cash flow in the June quarter.

That turned around a $30m outflow in March 2025, lifting cash on hand by $65m to $152m.

BGL produced 38,941oz, processing a record 287,000t at 4.5g/t gold with 94.4% recovery.

After a restructure of the company’s hedging, 38,754oz were sold at an average sale price of $5147/oz, collecting the full benefit of the rampant spot gold price.

Bellevue’s Bellevue gold mine near Leinster is known to be on the market, and today’s release was good for its potential valuation, with BGL shares 4.3% higher despite the production figure falling marginally short of guidance of 40-45,000oz thanks to delays accessing a key stope at Deacon and unplanned plant maintenance.

Bellevue did, however, claim a record month of 19,400oz for June, with 130,164oz sold across the full financial year.

Analysts from Argonaut and Canaccord both think BGL will produce around 150,000oz in FY26, with CG’s Tim McCormack saying FCF was higher than its forecast of $53m.

Regis Resources (ASX:RRL)

Regis produced 87,400oz in the June term, taking full year production from its 100% owned Duketon gold operations and 30% share of the Tropicana gold mine to 373,000oz.

That was the upper end of guidance of 350-380,000oz, with its portion of the Tropicana JV (70% owned by AngloGold Ashanti) contributing 140,000oz – the top of its 130-140,000oz range.

Duketon came in at 233,000oz against FY25 guidance of 220-240,000oz. Cash and bullion build was $150m, with a total of $517m at June 30.

Regis is considered by observers to be a likely acquirer with the cash burning a hole in its back pocket. RRL shares dropped 1.3% on Monday morn.

Alkane Resources (ASX:ALK)

A 1.4% drop, too, for Alkane despite hitting guidance with 70,120oz produced at the Tomingley gold mine in New South Wales in FY25.

As foregrounded by the miner in its last quarterly, that was at the lower end of the 70,000-80,000oz range.

Cash and bullion lifted $9.8m to $60.3m, with underlying free cash flow of $12.3m before land purchases related to its Boda porphyry project.

ALK, which produced 19,193oz in the June quarter, also made $1.8m in debt repayments and filled 7200oz of hedges. The company retains $8m of listed investments, including a stake in Medallion Metals (ASX:MM8).

With production numbers out of the way, attention will turn to its merger with TSX-listed Mandalay Resources, owner of the Costerfield gold-antimony mine in Victoria and Björkdal operation in Sweden.

“Tomingley has had an excellent year with increased production from the Roswell underground and the successful commissioning of both a new paste plant and a flotation and fine grind circuit,” ALK MD Nic Earner said.

“Alkane’s operation at Tomingley, combined with our merger with Mandalay Resources, place us firmly into the mid-tier gold companies on the ASX. We look forward to the year ahead and delivering for our shareholders.”

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST)

If there was something to call ugly it was the operational update out of the ASX’s apex gold miner, which lopped 7.3% off its market valuation on Monday.

The concerns were multi-faceted. NST crept into the lower end of its guidance range of 1.63-1.66Moz with 1.634Moz of gold produced.

While its Pogo mine in Alaska surprised to the upside (283,000oz vs 265,000-275,000oz), the key Kalgoorlie centre came in at 832,000oz for the full year against guidance of 850,000-860,000oz.

Yandal was on track at 518,000oz (guidance 515-525,000z).

NST delivered a total of 444,000oz in the June quarter, including 118,000oz from its flagship KCGM operation in Kalgoorlie.

It had previously revised guidance from 1.65-1.8Moz at costs of $1850-2100/oz to 1.63-1.66Moz at $2100-2200/oz.

FY26 guidance has been set also of 1.7-1.85Moz at $2300-2700/oz, with 550-600,000oz projected from KCGM (aka the Super Pit).

Operational growth capital is expected to come in at $1.14-1.2bn, with NST warning of inflationary pressures to the tune of around 5%, along with increased sustaining capital due to underground development, processing capital and increase mining costs and activity across the portfolio.

There are some external factors as well – with higher royalties due to the strong gold price and tariff assumptions for the Pogo mine in Alaska.

While $530-550m to be spent in the final year of a plant expansion at KCGM is unchanged, it’s not included in the aforementioned growth capital bill.

Meanwhile, $315-370m has been brought forward for “operational readiness” at KCGM, including $180-220m on new tailings dams to support higher processing rates, $85m on a thermal power station with ‘renewable ready transmission infrastructure’, $30-35m for a permanent onside camp for future projects and shutdowns and $20-30m for commissioning and initial stores consumables.

Another $140-150m will be spent on the Hemi project, acquired in a $6bn merger with De Grey Mining, with $225m pledged for exploration.

RBC’s Alex Barkley said the guidance posted came in slightly lower than the midpoint of both the bank’s and consensus guidance (1.802Moz and 1.811Moz respectively), with costs 17% above consensus and total growth capex around $400m above consensus.

“NST states the FY26 cost increases come from industry-wide inflationary pressures, and an increase in infrastructure and development costs, which should provide some benefit in future periods. However, we expect this is unlikely to mitigate the headline blow to FY26 cash flow,” he said in a note to clients.

“We expect NST trades lower today.”

Argonaut’s Bristow maintained a buy and $27.40 price target on NST, calling the production result mixed.

“FY26 guidance has been provided for the first time, with production in line with our forecasts while ASIC and capex guidance was higher than anticipated,” he said.

“The acquisition of De Grey Mining and the completion of the KCGM expansion should enable NST to increase group gold production by +50% over the next 4-5 years, translating to an impressive annual production CAGR of ~11%.

“Updates on the plans for Hemi project and the KCGM expansion progress present key near-term catalysts for NST.”