Gold Digger: The 2025 gold bull run may be wild, but it ain’t crazy

• Gold keeps rising, passing US$4300/oz
• ANZ ups mid-2026 price forecast to US$4600/oz, Bank of America to US$5000/oz
• World Gold Council says gold bull run could have more legs 

Gold’s bull run has gone beyond the wildest dreams of miners who spent years in the doghouse, stretching to US$4340/oz (+A$6700/oz) as continued US-China tensions and hopes of rate cuts stir hopes the yellow metal will get even more attractive against a wobbly Trump-dumped Greenback.

Silver is at an all time high of US$54/oz as well, with even more highs predicted.

Bank of America went long recently, upping its 2026 gold outlook to US$5000/oz and silver to US$65/oz.

ANZ has followed suit. It’s now tipping US$4400 by year end and US$4600/oz by June next year, which could well be conservative given how quickly bullion is bombing.

They have silver at US$57.5/oz by mid-2026 with another four 25bps rate cuts expected in the US to March.

“While comparisons are being made to the 1980’s price peak, the current price rise is underpinned by structural drivers, indicating that elevated prices will likely sustain. We expect the Fed to make four additional 25bp rate cuts through March 2026, with the terminal rate stabilising at 3.25%,” ANZ’s Soni Kumari and Daniel Hynes said.

“While the terminal rate will remain relatively elevated, the directional downtrend in rates and consequential USD weakness will be beneficial for nonyielding gold. This differs from the aggressive interest rate hikes and USD strength in the 1980s.

“Mounting concerns around the Fed’s independence, political uncertainty, trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and ballooning debts will continue to keep strategic investment interest strong for gold.”

So what’s the driver?

With gold already running so hard – +60% this year – you may be forgiven for thinking a correction has been in order.

But Kumari and Hynes say macroeconomic headwinds have been growing and a US Government shutdown which has run into its third week is adding to upside from expected rate cuts, a likely US dollar drop and geopolitical tensions that compared to the bull market of the 1980s are more “intense and structural today”.

The latest flare-up, a Chinese rare earth export ruling that led Donald Trump to threaten 100% tariffs on America’s sparring partner from November 1, is evidence a true detente is not on the cards.

Meanwhile, the demand side for gold has been strong.

“Strategic investments have gained momentum this year, with total inflows (into ETFs) reaching 619t during the first three quarters. Notably, September saw a record monthly inflow of 146t. However, these figures remain below the annual increase of 892t recorded during the pandemic, leaving room for further flows,” Kumari and Hynes said.

“In addition, tactical positions are also on the rise, contributing to the upward trend. Central banks are diversifying their portfolios by ramping up gold holdings. Official buying has slowed to 415t in H1, but new countries are joining the list. Bulgaria, Brazil, Ghana, Indonesia have also started gold buying. In September, Brazil bought 16t of gold, while China added just 1t to its reserve.

“Despite recent stockpiling, emerging market central banks still have relatively low gold allocations as a share of their total reserves. For example, China’s gold reserves now sit at 2300t – representing 6.7% of its total reserves – after adding nearly 353t since November 2022.

“If China aims to lift its gold holdings to 10% of total reserves that could translate into purchases of around 1000t over the coming years.”

Silver, meanwhile, is catching a bid from investors who missed the gold rally, ANZ’s number crunchers say.

Physical shortages have been exacerbated by ETF inflows and fears around tariffs on silver in the US, especially with the metal added to the critical minerals list there. Comex inventories of +500,000oz are around five times normal levels, contributing to a drain on London supplies.

“As a result, lease rates have spiked to 35% which is abnormally high. Spot silver is now trading at a premium of 1.5% to COMEX futures. This is an anomaly, as gold and silver are normally in contango. However, this arbitrage could prompt buyers to move silver out of the US to the London market, alleviating the tightness,” Kumari and Hynes said.

Is this normal?

Gold is heading for its best year since the +120% gain seen in 1979 with around 50 all time highs already printed this year.

And, according to the World Gold Council, it took just 36 days to run from US$3500/oz to US$4000/oz.

On average a US$500 move takes 1036 days.

That seems extreme, although proportionally that clocks in at just 14%, similar to a previous bull run in 2011.

ETF inflows are also below the last two bull markets, which raw 1823t and 2341t accumulated over a respective 221 and 253 weeks.

This rally has seen 788t of holdings added and net longs up just 116t over 74 weeks since May 2024 – 30-40% of the average in previous bull markets.

The price run may be wild. But it’s not irrational, suggests the WGC.

“Gold marked a new milestone as it reached US$4000/oz. Its future path will depend on how investors respond to tactical and fundamental factors. In our view, comparisons to 1979 are enticing but misleading,” the WGC says.

Gold medal performers

Who were some of the top precious metals names this week?

Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA)

Gold and antimony explorer Nova Minerals, owner of the 9.9Moz Estelle project in Alaska, is on a tear after announcing that it’s been called to brief former PM and Aussie Ambassador to the US Kevin Rudd ahead of a landmark summit between Donald Trump and PM Anthony Albanese on Monday.

The long-awaited meeting is the first between the two world leaders after months of near misses aside from that frankly embarrassing selfie at the UN the other week.

Critical minerals are expected to be front of mind. Australia has a lot of them, while the US Government is keen to emerge as a separate power in the supply and refinement of those commodities to quell the west’s reliance on China.

How it plays out remains to be seen, but both Aussie operations and US operations owned by Aussie companies will likely be on the agenda.

That’s where Nova appears to fit in, its Estelle project among the few that could become a domestic supplier of antimony in the next couple years.

It’s already done the rounds with diplomats, received a US$43.4m award from the US DoD/W and a site for an antimony plant at Port MacKenzie.

Both of its key commodities are at a record price, with antimony production for the US military targeted for 2026/27. Up over 300% YTD with a market cap of ~$620m, punters are now backing Nova to get there.

Resolution Minerals (ASX:RML)

Same, same for Resolution, which has also had Kevin ’07 listening to its story ahead of Monday’s gabfest.

Resolution owns the Horse Heaven project, which sits next to the 4.8Moz Stibnite gold and antimony mine, a restart operation expected to receive around US$2bn in US Government support to return it to life.

RML’s project covers over 14,500 acres in Idaho containing historic gold, antimony and tungsten mines.

“Resolution Minerals appreciates the opportunity to brief Ambassador Rudd on the Horse Heaven Project ahead of the Prime Minister’s visit to Washington,” RML CEO of US ops Craig Lindsay said.

“Horse Heaven is a significant Australian-led project in the United States, with historical and potential future production of gold, antimony and tungsten, which are all critical to industrial and defence applications.

“The briefing reflects the constructive cooperation between Australia and the US on the development of secure, transparent critical mineral supply chains.

“We look forward to contributing to this dialogue and providing an update on our progress of our work in Idaho.”