Yep, that pretty much sums it up for a summary. And we’ll see you here this time next week.
Okay, a few more words, then…
Gold bullion hits record price highs again this week/today in US and Aussie dollar denoms
Sprott analysis suggests gold stocks are undervalued compared with the surging gold prices
ASX gold stocks faring particularly well this week include: NewPeak and Krakatoa
It seems there’s no stopping gold right now. Not US inflation, not cautious Federal Reserve governors. Not even the All Blacks. And that’d be because they’re not playing the Wallabies until September. Good times.
Gold investors have more times of goodness to look forward to in coming months, too – and this is according to analysts at Sprott – a prominent global assests management firm specialising in precious metals. We’ll get to that in a tick, but first…
The price of gold right today has been doing this:
That’s right – ingesting a cocktail of booze and amphetamines, letting loose on the set of what looks like a kids’ television show and probably setting its beard on fire with a sparkler.
But still, it’s having a bonza time, and has actually been hitting all-time highs again. A very happy habit of late, and it’s now up more than 15% YTD.
The current price in US dollars as we close out another working week: US$2,392. Which looks even more impressive in the Aussie variety: about a stonking AUD $3,665.
Gold prices have hit a RECORD high for an eighth consecutive session.
But hang on, didn’t Fed wowsers cause it to dip the other day?
Yeah, they did. On the back of hotter-than-expected US inflation-related data. But that’s yesterday’s news. This commodity du jour is robust as hell right now, and it has some banker analysts reaching for the red pen to make adjustments to prior forecasts.
For instance, Francisco Blanch, head of Commodities and Derivatives Research at Bank of America Securities, told Yahoo Finance this:
“In the case of gold, I think there’s a really big structural trend towards more gold purchases driven by the major geopolitical fracture that we have in the world today between the US and Europe on one side, and Russia China on the other. It’s really been central banks not trusting central banks that has been behind the buy-the-dip mentality in the gold market.”
He added that although the Bank of America still expects three rate cuts in 2024, gold prices could tumble if the Fed doesn’t deliver that outcome.
“We are still calling for a rate cut in June, and two more in the second half of the year, so based on that, we think prices continue to go higher, but there is definitely a challenge for the gold market if the Fed doesn’t cut rates this year, or as some people have claimed, if the Fed hikes rates.”
If that happens, it’ll be a “challenge” for most markets, one would’ve thought.
Other Bank of America bods also said this, this week:
“Gold remains one of our favorite metals and we expect prices to average US$2,500/oz by the fourth quarter, potentially hitting US$3,000/oz by 2025. Notably, demand from central banks and China’s retail buyers has been strong. If Western investors join the party on rate cuts, the yellow metal will move a leg higher; this may also be necessary, if sentiment in China improves, and less investment flows into gold.”
Here’s another take…
Junior gold stocks are waking up with gold price: Sprott
John Hathaway, managing partner with Sprott Asset Managment in the USA, has put together some analysis this week amid the surging gold prices.
Gold mining and exploration stock folks, particularly juniors, will probably be nodding heads sagely, as one of Hathaway’s chief takeaways pertains to them.
“Gold mining stocks, which have been lackluster, are beginning to respond but they remain historically inexpensive to the gold price,” wrote the Sprott man, referring to this Bloomberg chart among others, bearing in mind it has an American lens:
“In our view, gold mining stocks offer upside potential disproportionate to that of bullion,” added Hathaway.
“To be sure, persistent inflation might short-circuit consensus expectations for a 2024 rate cut,” he noted. “However, we believe it is only a matter of time before investors discover that the Federal Reserve is trapped between a weakening economy and its inflation-fighting mandate.
“While attention is focused on interest rate cuts, at Fed Chairman Powell’s last press conference, he stated that it could be ‘appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff fairly soon…if there were a significant weakening of the labor market,’ a clear tilt toward QE (quantitative easing).”
In other words: Money. Printer. Goes. Brrrrrrrrr.
But wait, he said more. (It’s a good piece, btw – read it in full > here).
Gold’s price is ‘no fluke’
The Sprott exec also suggested that, regarding gold’s continued surge, there has been more “widespread recognition that gold bullion’s strength is not a fluke and that the current level is either sustainable at current levels or that significant upside potential remains.”
Searching for a reason for that, or indeed another catalyst for continued up/right price action, he speculated that there’s a growing loss of trust in the US dollar as a store of value, and indeed US Treasury bonds as a safe place to park money.
Like the Bank of America analysis further above, he cites the record bank-hoarding from global central banks, which continue to gobble up the precious metal (1,037 tonnes in 2023 – an unprecedented level).
All the while, the US government debt just continues to spiral and spiral into a further abyss of dollar decay.
“Loss of trust in the US dollar as a safe and useful asset is no longer a hypothetical concern,” writes Hathaway. “Abandonment of the US dollar is a reality, and the pace is picking up steam. Repercussions for the financial markets and real economy are unlikely to be negligible. There are numerous potential catalysts for the general rush into gold by the investment mainstream.”
In short, those catalysts consist of: geopolitical tension (wars/conflict), inflation and rising oil prices, potential recession, “an impotent and mistake-prone” Federal Reserve, and more.
“The investment public remains asleep to the risks. Yet the breakout in gold bullion could signal the possibility of a significant reset of world financial markets.”
ASX Winners & Losers
Here’s how ASX-listed precious metals stocks are performing, circa 3pm April 12:
Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop.
Stocks missing from this list? Please email [email protected]Notable weekly gainers
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