Copper supply is under threat. But these Latin American explorers could unlock the next big discovery

• Latin America dominates copper exploration, with exploration budgets rising to US$1.43bn in 2023
• The region’s appeal continues to attract explorers, with newcomers like Norfolk Metals entering the scene
• Here’s a snapshot of ASX companies tapping into the region’s rich potential

With nearly half of the world’s copper coming out of Latin America, the region is shaping up as a strategic supply line for the US, where copper production has been steadily declining.

According to US Geological Survey data, US copper production fell 3% in 2024, following an 11% drop in 2023. The US produces less than 5% of the world’s primary copper, in comparison to Chile and Peru, which together account for one-third of the world’s copper reserves and roughly 36% of the world’s copper output.

Chile’s share of output is also sinking, from over 30% a decade ago as its mines age and grades decline.

For that reason, Latin America is seeing billions of exploration bucks poured into identifying new copper deposits to replace old ones and supplement existing operations.

Driven by its use in energy, construction, and tech, copper hit an all-time price high in 2024, intensifying global exploration efforts.

The Latin America region dominated copper exploration in 2023, attracting a 19% rise in copper exploration budgets to US$1.43bn according to S&P Global, with Chile, Argentina, Peru, Columbia and Ecuador all contributing.

But looming supply deficits call for more exploration on the ground.

By 2030, the International Energy Agency predicts that the total copper production from existing mines and mines under construction will only meet ~80% of the world’s copper needs.

By 2040, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects global copper demand to rise 40%, with infrastructure for artificial intelligence and data centres estimated to require up to 2.6Mt of the stuff.

Given its geographical proximity to large consumer the US and large share of reserves, Latin America is a critical piece of the puzzle.

New entrants flood the scene

More explorers are starting to pile into the region, including Norfolk Metals (ASX:NFL). The ASX junior recently entered into a binding earn-in agreement with Transendence Mining to acquire the Carmen copper project in Chile’s Husaco province.

The Carmen project contains an historical NI 43-101 copper oxide resource of 5.6Mt at 0.6% copper and multiple drill ready targets across more than 7.5km of untested strike.

NFL executive chairman Ben Phillips said one of the main reasons why the company decided to enter the Latin American region is because Chile has a clear framework to operate under.

“It also has dozens of heap leach operations as the mineralogy and the climate support the process,” he said.

“Chile is the world’s biggest copper producer and Carmen is only 16km from (major copper development projects) Relincho and El Morro, plus the proposed water infrastructure recently announced by Hot Chili runs past our doorstep.”

Phillips says it’s not just about the jurisdiction, but also the access and location of the project, which Norfolk has the right to earn 100% of by spending $3m on exploration over three years.

While many sites in the Andean countries have copper mines operating or planned for development at more than 4000m above sea level, Carmen is located on a rolling plateau running from 1950m to 2250m above sea level.

“We’re currently expediting all processes to ensure a value accretive, economical and safe maiden drill program commences as soon as we can facilitate,” Phillips added.

“This involves permitting, contracts and access, all very exciting and looking forward to a big 2025.”

A leading low-risk copper project

Hot Chili (ASX:HCH) has been operating in Latin America since around the time it listed on the ASX in March 2010.

The company acquired its Cortadera project in 2019, which makes up part of the wider Costa Fuego copper-gold asset, rated by S&P Global as one of the top 10 ‘low risk’ undeveloped copper projects globally.

A March 2025 PFS highlighted impressive post-tax numbers for the asset including an NPV of US$1.2b and IRR of 19%.

All in sustaining costs total US$1.85/lb from the production of 1.5Mt of copper and 780,000oz of gold over a 20 year mine life.

Costa Fuego is situated in the coastal range of Chile’s Atacama region and contains probable ore reserves of 502Mt at 0.37% copper, 0.1g/t gold, 0.49g/t silver and 97ppm molybdenum.

HCH’s subsidiary, Huasco Water, is now the only company with permitted access to supply seawater in the Huasco Valley region following a ten-year regulatory approval process.

Recent outcomes of its water supply PFS paves the way for the company to potentially outsource its seawater infrastructure by executing an MOU with Huasco Water to negotiate a seawater off-take agreement for Costa Fuego.

Both Costa Fuego and the Huasco Water project are registered for Priority Status by the Chilean Ministry of Economy, allowing for the country to expedite administrative approval processing.

Peru powers up  

In Peru, copper production totalled 2.7 million metric tonnes last year, marking a 0.7% drop from 2023 — the first decline after four consecutive years of post-pandemic growth.

The country is historically the second largest producer of copper in the world until it was unseated by the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2024.

Most of this production is concentrated in about 10 major copper projects—primarily porphyry deposits—spread along the Andean Belt, which stretches from Chile in the south to Ecuador in the north.

A number of ASX explorers have early stage investments in the country.

AusQuest (ASX:AQD) owns the Cangallo porphyry copper project in the southern part of the country, where two major intersections resulted in a 388% share price surge for the explorer in January after the discovery.

The discovery hole recorded 348m at 0.26% copper and 0.06ppm gold from surface, with AQD MD Graeme Drew saying the results exceeded expectations.

With access and drill site prep work completed, the company is ready to begin a Stage 2 RC program in the second half of May.

The 5000m campaign is designed to extend the original copper-gold intersections by re-directing drill-holes from the original drill pads as well as stepping out to the west, south and north to help locate the centre of the porphyry system.

It’s shone a light on other explorers in the country like Firetail Resources (ASX:FTL), which received inclusion on BHP’s exclusive Xplor incubator program to progress early stage exploration work on its Picha project.

FTL owns 70% of the project, where it this month announced a magnetic survey to further outline the scale and nature of the new Anta Q’illqa target in the north of the project area.

Maiden drilling is also planned for the third quarter at Ichucollo, the most advanced target at the project.

“The team in Peru continues to demonstrate the huge potential we have across the Picha Project. The geology we are seeing on the ground is highly encouraging, and we believe provides strong indicators of an extensive porphyry system. The geochemistry and geophysics work will provide information to guide the next steps as we continue to focus in on high-priority target areas,” MD Glenn Poole said this month.

Argentina’s emergence

Argentina’s mining sector is experiencing a resurgence, with experts suggesting the country could help ease anticipated copper supply shortages and emerge as a competitor to neighbouring Peru.

The country itself is currently a drop-in-the-pond copper producer with just one mine presently running, however, Argentina’s mining chamber (CAEM) estimates the country has an endowment of about 75.5Mt in copper reserves.

Last year, BHP teamed up with Lundin Mining to jointly acquire Toronto-exchange company Filo Corp to obtain the Filo Del Sol copper project, which straddles the Argentina-Chile border.

A new global resource of 7.2Bt at 0.40% copper, 0.23g/t gold and 4g/t silver was recently established at the site, one of the world’s largest copper, gold and silver resources.

That resource, exceeding analysts’ prior expectations, is a good sign for one ASX junior.

Filo Del Sol is located to the south of Belararox’s (ASX:BRX) Toro-Malambo-Tambo project, which recently capped off its field season with several milestones. They included to completion of a maiden drilling program.

Assays for the full program are on their way. But the identification of hundreds of metres of continuous copper sulphides in the second hole at Tambo South already struck a chord with investors, sending BRX’s shares flying 150% higher in late March.

The TMT project in Argentina occupies an unexplored area between the prolific El Indio and Maricunga metallogenic belts, with multiple promising targets already identified throughout the asset area.

BRX managing director Arvind Misra said reaching the target depth of 1300 metres in its second hole at Tambo South and intersecting multiple copper-bearing intrusions was a major milestone.

“While initial observations confirm copper mineralisation, the system requires further testing at depth,” he said.

“With all samples now submitted for analysis and detailed core logging underway, we look forward to announcing the results and are well-positioned to refine our geological models.”

The next field season is due to resume in November.

At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Norfolk Metals, Hot Chili, Firetail Resources and Belararox are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.