Which stocks are being hit by EOFY tax loss selling and which ones might be next?
It’s only a couple of weeks until the end of financial year and some people take steps to minimise their tax. One is selling shares they have made a capital loss on, using them to offset any capital gains.
But how can you tell which one are specifically being sold for tax reasons? As a starting point it is easy to look at the stocks that have been the biggest losers in the last 12 months. But it is likely too simple and excluding stocks that may be recovering.
Oliver’s Real Food (ASX: OLI) is one of this financial year’s biggest losers, currently standing 64 per cent lower than 1 July 2018. But it is up 133 per cent since the company announced it had fixed the issues that caused it to decline.
Clearly investors have not (yet) been ‘tax-loss selling’ that stock. But there is the prospect this may begin before the financial year is out.
Another way is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to detect buying and selling momentum – which we cover weekly in our Hot Money Monday column. Any stock with a figure under 30 is considered to be oversold.
Stockhead has tracked down the biggest losers in the last week along with their financial year to date return and their RSI. The majority of these stocks are also down in the last year although there are two exemptions, one of them being Nucoal (ASX: NCR) and the other Nex Metals (ASX: NME).
Since the quashing of Ian Mcdonald’s and John Maitland’s convictions investors have been hopeful the project may go ahead. The election of Mark Latham, an advocate for Nucoal shareholders, and his tabling of a bill for compensation in parliament spurred hope. But the government seemingly has higher priorities and Nucoal is down 26 per cent in the last week.
Other stocks have a higher correlation between the two and it is far easier to conclude the rush to claim tax losses has hit them.
UUV Aquabotix (ASX: UUV) is down 90 per cent this financial year and 25 per cent in the last week. Investors have sold off the stock as momentum has tracked too slowly and the capital raises (and associated dilutions) too quickly.
Yet investors may have had better luck with other stocks such as Orthocell (ASX: OCC) but facing a tax bill if they have sold or intend to sell by July 1. They can reduce their capital gains bill by selling stocks they have made a loss on and using it to offset capital gains.
Of course, just because your stocks have not been hit yet, it does not mean they will not be before 4pm next Friday. Here is a full list of stocks that have declined since July 1 last year but have been positive in the last week and have an RSI suggesting buying momentum.
Flamingo AI (ASX: FGO) has had a solid run in recent weeks after HSBC came onboard as a client. But the stock is still well down on where it was on July 1.
While some investors may hold in anticipation of gains in the future, others would prefer a bigger tax refund on the other side of this financial year.