Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Wednesday, October 1, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Wednesday, ASX futures were down 0.1%, pointing to a sluggish start to the day.

Here’s what happened overnight…

Another record close on Wall Street

The Dow ticked up 0.18% to yet another record, the S&P 500 climbed 0.41%, and the Nasdaq added 0.3%.

Not explosive but still, the tape now shows six straight monthly wins for the Nasdaq, five for the S&P and Dow.

That’s a hot streak you’d expect from a card counter in Vegas, not a market supposedly worried about a government shutdown (more on this below).

Nvidia hit fresh highs after Citi told clients the world could blow nearly US$3 trillion on AI hardware by 2029.

Pfizer clawed higher after striking a drug-pricing deal with Trump’s White House, complete with a new “TrumpRx” website. Sounds like healthcare reform by hostage negotiation.

And, Google’s stock is storming toward its best quarter in 20 years, even though it just cut a US$24 million cheque to Trump to settle the fallout from banning him on YouTube after the Capitol riots.

Meanwhile in Europe, stocks had their best September since 2019.

The Shutdown Show

The US government is about 93% odds-on to shut down this week.

The last time that happened was December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019. That was a 35-day partial shutdown under Trump, the longest in US history.

Before that, there were shorter stints in 2013 (16 days under Obama) and a couple of brief ones in 2018 as well.

Past shutdowns were usually shrugged off by the markets – the S&P barely twitched over the last twenty. But this time could bite harder.

Trump’s people are talking actual job cuts, not just furloughs.

Markets hate flying blind, and that’s exactly what a shutdown means.

If the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shuts its doors, the Fed will be left guessing on payrolls and inflation data. That’s like driving the RBA ute with the headlights off.

And if those US data go dark, volatility will spike, global funds pull their chips, and the ASX could take a hit.

China pulls pin on BHP?

Bloomberg is reporting that China’s state buyer has slapped a temporary halt on BHP’s iron ore cargoes after contract talks broke down.

BHP is not confirming the story, but it already sent its London stock down 5% overnight, and the miner’s ASX stock could be under pressure today.

For a company that ships record volumes out of the Pilbara, having cargoes left floating off Chinese ports is no small headache.

And if Beijing’s ban sticks, it points to a deeper power play in iron ore pricing that could hit BHP hard.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Resources Top 5: MEGA deal has RGL on track for Northern Zone gold kick-off.

Health Check: Syntara shares recover after promising blood cancer trial update.

Dr Boreham’s Crucible: 4D Medical enters crucial US dimension with high hopes.

Trading halts

Australian Pacific Coal (ASX:AQC) – pending full year accounts
Axel REE (ASX:AXL) – pending mineral resource estimate
James Bay Minerals (ASX:JBY) – material acquisition and cap raise
Alchemy Resources (ASX:ALY) – pending assay results
Victory Metals (ASX:VTM) – pending letter of intent for offtake arrangements
Saturn Metals (ASX:STN) – cap raise
Flagship Minerals (ASX:FLG) – pending strategic placement
European Lithium (ASX:EUR) – pending subsidiary acquisition
Renegade Exploration (ASX:RNX) – clarifying status of mining claims
Emu (ASX:EMU) – insufficient directors under Listing Rule 17.3
Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) – pending further announcement

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Riversgold is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.