Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Thursday, July 3, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST, ASX futures were pointing down by 0.25%, suggesting a lower open for the local share market.

Wall Street cautious as Trump cuts a Vietnam deal

Wall Street ended the session with a mixed bag, but the tone was more “cautiously optimistic” than “code red.”

The Dow dipped 0.02%, the S&P 500 crept up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq lifted 0.94%.

Trump said the US had reached a framework trade agreement with Vietnam, a move that sparked a rally in tech and apparel stocks, not least because it helped calm nerves around supply chains.

Nike jogged higher, and Tesla leapt more than 5% after reporting that its sales weren’t quite as bad as feared. In this market, less bad is the new great.

Microsoft is apparently dialling down its AI chip ambitions. By the way, it’s also swinging the axe again, cutting around 9,000 jobs, its second big layoff round this year.

Apple kept its winning streak alive, extending its five-day rally to more than 5% after Jefferies upgraded it to “hold.”

And let’s not forget the star of the show, trading platform Robinhood, which briefly hit the century mark, touching US$100 for the first time. That’s a 160% year-to-date gain, turbocharged this week by its rollout of tokenised stocks and ETFs in Europe.

But beneath the glow, the US labour market flashed some surprising amber lights. Private payrolls fell by 33,000 in June, according to ADP.

That sets the scene for Thursday night’s big one, the June US non-farm payrolls report, where the street is betting on a modest +110,000 jobs and a lift in unemployment to 4.3%.

Oil jumps as Iran flexes

Oil bulls finally got a little fire under them, with crude prices up 3% overnight.

Iran decided it would no longer cooperate with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, unless its top brass says yes.

“The market is pricing in some geopolitical risk premium from Iran’s move on the IAEA,” said UBS analyst, Giovanni Staunovo.

“But this is about sentiment, there are no disruptions to oil.”

ANZ flips forecast, now sees rate cut this month

Just hours after slashing its fixed mortgage rates to undercut rivals, ANZ pulled a U-turn on its rate outlook.

The bank now expects the RBA to deliver a 25bps cut at its July meeting, instead of waiting until August.

It’s a big pivot, but it makes sense given the latest run of weak consumer data and the ongoing global jitters.

Rachel Wastell from Mozo broke it down for borrowers: “It’s a quick pivot but it does line up with the rate cut energy we’re already seeing across the fixed rate market.”

A 25bps cut would shave about $76 a month or $918 a year off repayments for a $500k mortgage, according to Mozo.

And finally…

Back home, all’s relatively quiet until 11:30am AEST, when May trade data lands.

But let’s be honest, that’s not where the fireworks are.

The main event arrives tonight at 10:30pm AEST, when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics drops its June non-farm payrolls report, a day early thanks to the July 4 holiday.

Consensus is for a 110,000 jobs gain and a tick up in unemployment to 4.3%.

But after ADP’s shock drop last night, some traders are bracing for something worse, maybe even sub-50,000, which would throw the bond market into full “rate cut now” mode.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

A new report from RFC Ambrian lays out the commanding position China has taken in the gallium market and the outlook for Western players hoping to break the reliance on Chinese supply.

Biocurious: Dimerix (ASX:DXB) could be riding big and beautiful kidney drug success earlier than expected.

Health Check: Like bloodthirsty sharks, offshore acquirers are circling cheap biotech assets.

TRADING HALTS

Adavale Resources (ASX:ADD)– cap raise
Australian Pacific Coal (ASX:AQC)– Dartbrook operator update
Provaris Energy (ASX:PV1)– cap raise
Rimfire Pacific Mining (ASX:RIM)– arbitration announcement
TruScreen Group (ASX:TRU)– cap raise
Zimi Limited (ASX:ZMM)– cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Omega Oil and Gas and Dimerix are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.