Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Tuesday, June 24, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

The ASX is gearing up for a solid open, with futures up 0.7% at 7am AEST following a risk-on session in the US.

Wall Street pops

It was one of those nights where markets decided war might not be that bad….as long as it’s politely signalled in advance.

Iran fired off missiles at US bases in Qatar and Iraq in what looked more like a press release than a military assault.

Investors took that as a green light to pile back into equities (more on this below).

The S&P 500 gained 0.96%, the Dow lifted 0.89%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.94%, all comfortably reversing the jitters of the previous week.

Leading the charge was Tesla, up 8%, after finally giving the world a peek at its robotaxi fleet. Well, a handful of them, in Austin.

Add to that a surprise nod from Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman, who said she’d support a rate cut as soon as July if inflation stays in its lane.

That was the cherry on top for Wall Street.

Oil plunges

Brent crude dropped over 9%, and WTI tumbled to US$67 a barrel, wiping out nearly all the war premium from the past fortnight.

Iran’s missile barrage that meant to hurt US military bases in Iraq and Qatar didn’t hit any oil infrastructure, didn’t touch the Strait of Hormuz, and, most critically, didn’t kill anyone.

According to analysts, this was more of a “look tough for the cameras” move than a proper escalation.

Even Trump seemed to know it was coming.

Qatar closed its airspace in advance. The US issued shelter-in-place orders. And Iranian officials made sure everyone knew the number of missiles matched the number of US bombs dropped on their nuclear sites.

As Bloomberg quipped, it had “symbolism written all over it”.

In Trump’s usual all-caps social media style, he thanked Iran for the early warning, celebrated the lack of casualties, and even tossed out this gem:

“CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”

Add to that his post telling the Energy Department to “drill now” and Energy Secretary Chris Wright casually replying “We’re on it,” – and you’ve got a perfect recipe for a crude crash.

Virgin’s back!

After crashing into administration in 2020, Virgin Australia is making a comeback; now leaner, meaner, and landing a $439 million IPO.

The ticker VGN will hit the ASX today with Bain Capital cashing in and Qatar Airways holding its stakes.

The airline’s gone from $7 billion in debt to over half a billion in earnings; and with Qantas as its only real rival left, Virgin’s got room to fly.

Backed by Qatar, a shiny new long-haul plan, and a juicy P/E discount, investors could be circling.

And finally…

Back on Aussie soil, Queensland and NSW are both handing down their state budgets today.

Expect a flurry of headlines about infrastructure, housing, health spending, and how the states plan to juggle it all as rate cuts loom.

In China, lawmakers will possibly announce a stack of legal reforms today, according to the AFR, from unfair competition rules to public security law revisions.

Eyes on that, especially for Aussie exporters.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: It’s ‘nothing personal’ as a major US biotech fund calls time on Syntara.

Hot Money Monday: Elsight’s hot streak continues as Halo becomes a battlefield essential.

A new generation ‘gold’ rush is attracting ASX juniors to the US West Coast.

Guy on Rocks: Almonty is building into the international tungsten industry.

TRADING HALTS

Fortifai Limited (ASX:FFK) – cap raise
Inventis Limited (ASX:IVT) – business restructuring
Lightning Minerals Ltd (ASX:L1M) – proposed acquisition and cap raise
MA Credit Income Trust (ASX:MA1) – cap raise
Mount Burgess Mining NL (ASX:MTB) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Locksley Resources and Codrus Minerals are Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.