In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.

Good afternoon,

Home stretch and the last note for the year.

Christmas plans are well underway with hams being looked at and glazes being decided.

I’ll be opting for:

1 – The biggest ham I can find, and;

2 – Honey glaze

I’ve not done a ham before but the confidence is there to charge in after the wild success of my turkey at Thanksgiving.

Speaking of wild confidence, energy levels are at a high here at BPC HQ, having successfully completed the rights issue and shortfall for Wellnex Life (ASX:WNX) to acquire Pain Away.

Little things like the work done last week show that if it wasn’t for the hard work of some determined people then a lot of good things wouldn’t happen to some deserving companies.

We cover that and many more things on the podcast this week, which I am proud of.

We go into the Last Days of Rome being played out live from Ryan’s Bar as we see more data showing that while Australian GDP is still fine we’re experiencing a per-capita GDP.

Aussie GDP

 

That being said it’s still a madhouse in the Sydney pubs as we continue to wait for the recession, which seemed so inevitable a while ago.

 

Via X

WE PAY TOO MUCH TAX.

We should be paying less tax.

 

Via Creative Planning

Meanwhile, overseas we will reiterate the numbers for November.

No. 9

Ninth best month for the 60/40 portfolio since January 1976.

That’s remarkable.

Go find my old notes from the end of 2022 and you’ll see a lot that I was writing about was how good the 60/40 would do, against the consensus of the BofA Fund Manager Survey crowd who did not see it going very well at all.

 

Keep the faith

Now over to India, which is still my favourite emerging market and one that all should have a really good look at for a potential investment.

It’s about to overtake Hong Kong in market size.

Screenshot FT

Keep the faith in India – there’s no reason for what has happened there to stop any time soon.

Remember, the market and economy are – in a rare example in the history of global markets – linked. The growth of the Indian middle class will continue to fund the Systematic Investment Plan which in turn goes right into the local market. Amazingly the net flow of foreign buying has turned positive again, so that’s something to embolden you.

That being said, when it comes to developed markets I’d be happy to ease back on the allocation to equities somewhat. A strong November and some overbought signals.

Also, the VIX is low and cheap, so if you want to buy some insurance then there’s where it’s at.

The US economy is…

interesting.

 

That’s all for now and the last note for 2023.

We’ve had a great run being bullish and I’m confident that careful management will see further protection of portfolios and increases of growth.

Just beware the crash callers.

They mean well, but lots of grains of salt when they speak…

All the best,

James

 

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the writer and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.

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