In this Stockhead series, investment manager James Whelan, managing director Barclay Pearce Capital Asset Management, offers his insights on the key investment themes and trends in domestic and global markets. From macro musings to the metaverse and everything in between, Whelan offers his distilled thoughts on the hot topic of the day, week, month or year, from the point of view of a professional money manager.

 

Back at “home” (work) after being on the road (work) last week road-showing a company we cover (Impact Minerals) from Sydney to Brisbane and then to Melbourne.

 

 

I may have mentioned it before but there was a time that I was envious of the senior guys running the shows.

Travelling with companies, organising deals, sitting in “fancy” restaurants (I’m still, and will always be, that kid from Kenthurst).

 

You can take the boy out of Kenthurst. Via realestate.com

 

Now that I’m running the show I can see that it’s crushed suits, backfilling late cancellations, domestic flights and a level of concentration leading the conversation of a 15 person room.

It’s hard, but it’s the job and I love it.

For an overview of Impact Minerals (ASX:IPT),  I had an interview with the MD Mike Jones, please follow the link here.

Brilliant company with a great future. I’m enjoying the work we’re doing with them.

Speaking of companies with great futures…

 

There’s a point at which a company has to think that the trouble they’re going to to cover up their failings would be better spent just fixing the problems inherent to the company.

But who am I to tell a company how to run its business.

Stay the course.

And if you’re ok ethically buying a company that probably bumps off its whistleblowers, then the more likely it is that Trump gets elected the more you should buy before the US election in November.

 

Inflation and the economy

US markets had been going through it recently with some more uppish inflation data than they needed.

Then the Nonfarm payrolls dropped late last week and were weaker than expected, so markets went up seeing this as a signal the Fed can start it’s cutting cycle slightly earlier than previously expected. Keep in mind that the market has priced Fed cuts from “heaps” at the start of the year to “maybe” this year.

Either way US markets either seem to sluggishly rally in spite of higher rates or take off with the tailwind of potential cuts. There’s minimal in-between.

Regardless of your view on rates here is a quick summary of pricing at the Miami Grand Prix just passed.

 

Via Whelan

 

I like my steamed buns and my car racing.

But how’s this for pole positioning?

 

 

Extraordinary.

 

Hawks and doves

Locally the RBA meets to get hawkish. They have no choice but to. There’s a growing chorus of economists saying the RBA has an increase in them somewhere.

I disagree but I do think the hold with be as hawkish as possible.

I think it is now safe to say that anyone who said inflation was transitory was wrong. No argument.

I’m holding fast to the view that US remains on these rates for longer and Australia sees more cuts quicker at the back end of the year.

However the next few weeks will be a sea of choppy data and switching momentums.

 

Finally, here’s a nice thing from the science desk: A camera that can capture 1 trillion frames per second. Humans are amazing.

 

 

Stay safe and all the best,

James

 

The views, information, or opinions expressed in the interview in this article are solely those of the writer and do not represent the views of Stockhead.

Stockhead has not provided, endorsed or otherwise assumed responsibility for any financial product advice contained in this article.

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