Is Bitcoin ‘technically oversold’? Fidelity thinks so. Meanwhile Bloomberg analyst speculates $20k bottom
Coinhead
Coinhead
Crypto prices are in the toilet, although perhaps not quite round the S bend just yet. So who’s sounding positive about Bitcoin’s future? Among many others, investment-management giant Fidelity.
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global macro director, took to Twitter yesterday to tell his near 127k followers he thinks Bitcoin (BTC) is “cheaper than it looks”, undervalued and “technically oversold”.
Is BTC cheaper than it looks? If we consider a simple “P/E” metric for BTC to be the price/network ratio, then that ratio is back to 2017 and 2013 levels, even though BTC itself is only back to late 2020 levels. Valuation often is more important than price. /THREAD pic.twitter.com/6XMPrtRUzF
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 15, 2022
Timmer explained that while BTC has plummeted back to levels not seen since December 2020, its price-to-network ratio has actually jumped in the Tardis and time-travelled back to 2013 and 2017 levels. A low price/network ratio can indicate an asset is potentially undervalued.
The next chart shows how technically oversold Bitcoin is. Glassnode’s dormancy flow indicator is now to levels not seen since 2011. /END pic.twitter.com/O5SevpQf4K
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 15, 2022
To illustrate how oversold he thinks Bitcoin is, the analyst used data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode to show Bitcoin’s “dormancy flow”, which compares price to spending behaviour. He also highlighted the asset’s “demand curve”, noting that the BTC price is languishing below its network curve based on non-zero addresses.
Earlier in the week, Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson also had the bull horns on at the Consensus 2022 conference in Austin, Texas. There, she said the following:
“I figure this is my third crypto winter. There’s been plenty of ups and downs but I see that as an opportunity.
“I was raised to be a contrarian thinker and so I have this knee-jerk reaction: If you believe that the fundamentals of a long term case are really strong, when everybody else is dipping [out], that’s the time to double down and go extra hard into it.”
Fidelity CEO Abigail Johnson, "If you believe that the fundamentals of a long-term case are really strong, when everybody else is dipping [out], that’s the time to double down and go extra hard into it” #bitcoin
🔗 https://t.co/iXAFceiajq pic.twitter.com/sib3mBOdLe
— Documenting Bitcoin 📄 (@DocumentingBTC) June 12, 2022
She did add that she feels “awful about the value that is lost” but that she also thinks the crypto industry has a lot more growth to come.
Fidelity Investments has been bullish on crypto for a while and is currently working on launching a Bitcoin investment plan that will allow US 401(k) retirement savings account holders to invest in the asset directly.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has also been tweeting about Bitcoin in the past 24 hours or so.
The analyst has been studying the historical data, which he suggests shows the no.1 crypto might well find its key support around the US$20k mark, something Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz was predicting the other day as well.
“$20,000 Bitcoin may be the new $5,000,” tweeted McGlone, adding that he thinks BTC’s plummet so far this year is perfectly normal given various prevailing circumstances.
“The fundamental case of early days for the crypto’s adoption vs. diminishing supply may prevail as the price approaches too-cold levels. It makes sense that one of the best-performing assets in history would drop in 1H.”
$20,000 #Bitcoin May be the New $5,000 –
The fundamental case of early days for global Bitcoin adoption vs. diminishing supply may prevail as the price approaches typically too-cold levels. It makes sense that one of the best-performing assets in history would decline in 1H… pic.twitter.com/f5MImdhzgD— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) June 15, 2022
The price is right, then? MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor thinks so…
JUST IN – MicroStrategy CEO says he'd consider buying more BTC at these prices.
"#Bitcoin is on sale." pic.twitter.com/DVSXZN4FMM
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) June 15, 2022
Earlier this week the CEO addressed FUD that his business intelligence software company, which is neck deep in Bitcoin, was facing a margin call on a BTC-backed loan. Saylor indicated the company has ample collateral to pledge if necessary.
Seeing tons of FUD regarding @MicroStrategy getting a liquidated below $21k, the risk is heavily exaggerated.
There is a large difference between liquidation and getting a margin call. @saylor & $MSTR have enough uncollateralized $BTC to fend off a margin call at these levels. pic.twitter.com/njkugXQBEC
— Small Cap Scientist 👨🔬🧪🥼 (@SmallCapScience) June 14, 2022