‘If there’s a settlement, XRP will pump”: Finder founder and other experts speculate on SEC vs Ripple outcome
Link copied to
XRP has been pumping on the back of hope for a positive result in the Ripple vs SEC case. Stockhead grabs some expert takes and predictions.
There was movement at the XRP station last week, for the word had passed around, both Ripple Labs and the SEC had gunned for an early ruling.
A ruling, that is, on their bitter “You’re a Security… No We’re Not” legal stoush – the one that’s been going on since 2020, the result of which could prove fateful for how most of the crypto industry is regulated in the States.
Both the US Securities and Exchange Commission and Ripple last week filed for a so-called summary judgment, essentially calling for a swift resolution on the grounds there’s not a hope in hell the other party can win.
So what are Ripple Labs’ chances of winning this case and proving at long last that XRP should not be classified as a security with regards to the project’s token sale back in 2012?
At face value, it might be reasonably good if general sentiment based on the rising XRP price just lately is anything to go by. The coin was back up above US 50 cents again a short time ago, having made a positive 36% move over the past week.
Incidentally, appearing in a recent Altcoin Daily YouTube video (see below), technical analyst Tom Crown walked viewers through his charting take on XRP. The too-long-didn’t-watch on that? He’s looking at a support level around 22 cents if Ripple loses the case, and a bounce up to “at least its 2021 high of $1.60”.
That said, price action and charting alone can’t quite give us all the insights we’re craving, so Stockhead rounded up a few expert opinions on the matter. Let’s start with Finder co-founder Fred Schebesta…
“When you look at this case, it’s important to look at the zeitgeist with regards to what the SEC is doing. At the moment, Gensler [Gary – the SEC chairman] is pretty fired up. He wants someone to pin something on,” Schebesta told Stockhead in a phone chat last week.
Not feeling bullish about a Ripple Labs win, then?
“I wouldn’t be too bullish about that. In fact, I’d be maybe the opposite. These sorts of court cases in America can be very political. Gensler’s SEC is trying to find someone to really stick it to so they can then go through the whole of crypto and pull them all under their securities laws.”
Fighting the US government certainly seems like a tough battle. Ripple’s definitely the underdog, right?
“Well yeah, the American government is a very well-resourced competitor! As Buffett said, if a policemen follows you long enough down a highway, they’ll find something wrong.”
Would an SEC win mean an XRP dump?
“No. Not necessarily. In fact, if they do resolve it soon and XRP just has to pay a fine, I think the price may well actually pop up. And that’s because we’ll see regulatory clarity and Ripple will have been through the washing machine only to come out the other side standing.
“It’s a little counterintuitive, but when there’s certainty, the price can go up. I actually think, regardless of who is deemed the winner, if they have a settlement, XRP will pump. So I’m quite bullish on it in that regard. And that’s obviously not financial advice!”
Meanwhile Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital – a digital-assets-and-tech-focused financial institution – also gave us his perspective.
“If Ripple wins the case, the XRP price will most likely boost significantly and increase the price of other altcoins, at least in the short term,” Chok told Stockhead.
The Hong Kong firm’s boss also believes a Ripple win will see the re-listing of XRP on US crypto exchanges, adding: “There’s potential for a new dynamic in the market as XRP may become the only crypto asset with regulatory clarity in the jurisdiction.”
Another benefit of a positive result, noted Chok, is that it could result in removing some of the current ambiguity around how crypto assets are classified.
“There is also a possibility that the wider digital assets space will be safe from the SEC’s quest to make examples of crypto players, given the precedent-setting nature of this particular lawsuit,” said Chok.
That’s all well and good and we’re stuffing it in the hopium pipe for now. Buuuutttt… what if Ripple loses? Would that be curtains for XRP?
“If Ripple suffers a loss, XRP will unlikely be erased as Ripple has no control over the majority of the stock. A high proportion of XRP holders are based abroad where the SEC has no jurisdiction,” reassured Chok.
“XRP would likely remain delisted in US exchanges but not in other jurisdictions as no other regulators have shown any intent of going after Ripple yet. At the moment it’s worth noting that all this is speculation until the court case concludes. It could go either way.”
Another Finder-housed crypto commentator, Billy Endres also weighed in for us, noting the recent XRP price move.
“XRP’s positive price action shows that many investors are confident the charges will be dismissed,” said Endres, adding:
“If the ruling is favourable, XRP may be one of the first cryptos to break out of a multi-month range and it could potentially spark a bullish trend.”
However, he was prepared to entertain an SEC win as well, and wasn’t as positive about finding a sliver lining in that outcome.
“If the SEC wins the lawsuit, investors’ faith will inevitably be questioned, and there’s no saying how far XRP could fall.
“The rest of the market seems largely unaffected by the news, though, and predominantly concerned with Ethereum and its negative price response post-Merge. Overall, I think it’s unlikely that a win for Ripple and XRP will act as a catalyst for a shift in broader market sentiment.”