After 35 years of stockbroking for some of the biggest houses and investors in Australia and the UK, the Secret Broker is regaling Stockhead readers with his colourful war stories — from the trading floor to the dealer’s desk.

Happy New Year to everyone.

According to my family, NYE was a good one, though for certain bits I have a bit of a blank and I don’t think I offended too many of the hangers on, who I have to say, don’t come from my side of the gene pool, so I really don’t care.

I had to get the editor to email me last year’s predictions and his attached note was somewhat rude in regards to my score.

He would have got an invite but somehow it must have got lost in the post.

When I asked him how many of his predictions came true, he answered just one, as last year he only made one.

So, no pressure on me here then and I do think it’s a bit unfair with his one and my demanded 20.

Maybe he should give me a bonus $500 for each one I get right and if he agrees with this, he may, just may, get back on the invitee list.

(Ed: Suggest prediction “editor gets invite to my NYE bash”.)

Anyway, as you all know, I can channel the great predictor Nostradamus, simply by staring at a lump of ice floating in a good slug of The Macallan 25 Year Old (Sherry Oak Highland) Single Malt Scotch before it melts and gets consumed.

As he was foreign, some of the translating must get mixed up, especially as the night goes on, so we can blame him for some of the wayward wrong ‘uns.

A bad predictor always blames the translator. Hic!

Anyway, these were last year’s predictions for 2023.

1. House prices to bottom out with June/July being the bottom. They won’t recover by much but just settle.
Got this one correct, so that was a good start.

2. Beware of the Ides of March as the market will fall by 5% between 15th March and the 2nd April, as 3 months into the year sentiment will drop.
This one came true earlier than I predicted

And then again… just started a few days earlier than the 15th March 2023. Like by three days. Give me a break!

3. Another member of the Rolling Stones will pass away as their odds deteriorate this year, yet again.
At some point this will happen but I am sticking with Keef and his diet from now on.

4. 10 year government bonds will finish the year yielding between 3.37% to 3.59%.
Currently 3.90%.

This one is quite amazing. I didn’t get it right, but yields did touch 5% before ending the year at the exact same yield as they started, so my sentiment was right (ish).

5. The market will close out higher than its current level.
Got this one correct and against all odds.

6. You will see a doubling of cars, boats and other ‘boys’ toys’ for sale in the road.
Got this one correct, as mortgage payments got tighter

7. Prince Harry and Meghan will attend King Charles’ coronation.
Well, they both got an invite, but only Harry attended.

8. Tesla shares will touch U$89. Currently U$110.50.
Got this one wrong. Their years low was U$101.81

9, CBA will trade between $93 and $107. Currently $103.30.
Their low for the year was $93.05 (15th March 2023 – you see the Ides of March)

10. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will threaten Google’s dominance in search and impact on their revenue.
Got this right to start with but then they came out swinging against Microsoft. They hit U$89.52 on 1st March 2023, which was down from U$108.82, reached in Feb 2023. Closed the year at $141.28.

11. Meat prices will drop as consumers tighten their belts.
Got this one right.

12. Bitcoin will hit U$20,300 and U$13,650.
U$16,000 was their low but they did hit U$20,300 on 14th Jan 2023.

13. ZIP will be bid for, only because their tech is so good. I can see an organisation like Harvey Norman expanding from just their current customer base on 60 month interest free to a much wider audience and joining in in the FinTech revolution.

Give up on this prediction. Wrong again.

14. Penny Wongs’ hair will turn completely white as she grapples with Chinese diplomacy.

Her hairdresser was under a lot of pressure with this one but I’m pretty sure I am right.

Picture: Getty Images

15. Someone in ‘Home and Away’ will die.
This one will never be wrong!

16. Kathleen Folbigg will be released from jail.
Correct: 5th June 2023. At last!

17.Elton John will finally finish his last world tour.
Correct: ‘Your Song’ was his very final tune and that just so happened to be the 1st single I ever bought.

18. Twitter will default on some of its debt.
Nope. He is still hanging on in there, though he did miss some rent payments for his office space.

19. Harry and William will kiss and make up
Nope: Not yet anyway though Charlie did forgive him in public.

20. There will be peace in the Ukraine.
Nope, not yet, though a deal may be done in 2024.

So, I will leave it to the editor to score me on last year’s effort and I will score him. 1/1. (His prediction, every year – ‘world gets more f..ked’. So you can see what I have to deal with.)

So now, as I’m slipping down the green chesterfield and skillfully managing never to spill a drop of my prediction juice, I had better note this year’s predictions down.

TSBstradamus’ 2024 predictions

1. Keef won’t die.

2. ZIP won’t be taken over.

3. Interest rates won’t be cut by the RBA.

4. The ASX 200 will finish lower than it started this year.

5. The A$ will touch 64c.

6. The A$ will touch 71c.

7. Aust 10 yr bonds will touch 4.75%.

8. Trump will not be re-elected.

9. Prince Harry will have a health scare.

10. Iron ore will touch U$109.20.

11. CBA will touch $117 and $97.

12. Feb and Aug will be the worst months for markets.

13. Global heat rates will peak this year.

14. House prices will finish the year lower.

15. AVZ will be removed from the ASX.

16. Bitcoin will touch US$58,000.

17. BHP will range between $43 and $54.

18. I will release a book. (Ed: lol.)

19. FMG will touch $35.

20. Crown will be bid for.

And there you go. I can back up each one with logical arguments on why I think these predictions will come true but I just haven’t got the post NYE celebration energy to be fully arsed.

Number 3 is a classic, where markets are building in rate cuts in 2024 but if rates are cut from where they are now, won’t that trigger off the inflation roundabout again?

Number 9 will come about, as there is nothing like a bit of sympathy that arises from a health scare, which can then be used to patch up family and public opinions and sway their thoughts the other way.

As for number 8, I think the public will just tire of the Trump circus antics and maybe, just maybe, they may vote in someone who is younger and dare I say, female?

Anyway, print this off, stick it on the fridge door and tick them off one by one.

As for me, I will adjust a few things as 5 and 6 come in and out of play, re portfolio and oversea purchases.

I’m going to trim a few holdings in Feb and come back to them in April.

Happy 2024 and good luck.

Some of you will need it!


The Secret Broker can be found on Twitter here @SecretBrokerAU or on email at [email protected].

Feel free to contact him with your best stock tips and ideas.