Which way the key commodities will go in the next two years – in one chart
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If you’re looking for ideas as to what commodity prices may do over the next two years, the chart below may be of interest.
From Macquarie Bank, it shows where individual commodities currently sit in their price cycle — at least in Macquarie’s opinion — providing a rough guide as to what commodities are likely to be hot, or not, over the next two years.
(The arrows indicate where Macquarie sees prices moving over the next two years based on supply and demand dynamics.)
So which commodities does Macquarie predict will outperform in the coming years?
Over a one-year time horizon, it likes the look of nickel, uranium, palladium and platinum.
Over two years it says nickel, copper and platinum will do better than most.
At the other end of the spectrum, Macquarie isn’t liking battery metals or coal.
Its least-preferred list over the next 12 months includes cobalt, lithium, manganese ore and thermal coal based largely on supply factors rather than demand.
Longer-term, its favoured commodities on a five-year horizon include uranium, nickel and copper.
It’s least-favoured list over this period includes coal, steel and lithium.
As for what price levels Macquarie expects, its forecasts are below: