The mining boom is coming, and the party’s about to get lit

• Hedley Widdup’s mining clock suggests we’re on the cusp of another boom
• Gold and copper have strong outlooks
• IPO uplift suggests money is flooding back to resources

Aussie mining commentator Hedley Widdup reckons the boom times are well are truly on their way.

Delivering the Thursday keynote at the Resources Rising Stars conference on the Gold Coast, the CEO of listed ASX resource fund Lion Selection Group (ASX:LSX) has moved the needle on the firm’s patented mining clock to somewhere between 5 and 6 o’clock, on the cusp of another boom.

It may not be too long before resources is the Belle of the Ball.

“There was discussion yesterday on the Bell (panel) about have we missed this [the gold boom]? Is it too late?” Widdup said.

“And my answer to that is, well, let’s think about this as a ball analogy.

“If the invitation says the ball starts at five and it finishes at 11, if you get there at 5.30, you’re not going to say to people, how many beers have you had? Because if you’ve had two beers, I’m not having anything.

“That’s bulls**t, isn’t it? You turn up at the ball and you go, brother, I’ve got to catch up.”

Widdup predicts there will be a lot more money coming into the resources market in the near-term, rotating out of high-price banks and high-price tech, with new investors coming into the market.

“This will be happening the whole time for the next few years as this cycle plays out,” Widdup said.

“It is not too late. You’ve got to the party when everybody’s getting in the gear, but Tequila shots aren’t going out yet.

“So just relax!”

Central Banks and ETFs drive gold demand

Central Banks have been buying up plenty of gold in recent years, drawing headlines and broad attention beyond the usual market players.

Central Banks have collectively accumulated more than 1000 tonnes of gold in each of the last three years, essentially doubling the averages of the previous decade.

Quarterly Central bank gold buying. Pic: The Gold Observer.

China’s Central Banks in particular have been on a 10-month gold buying streak, with holdings increasing by 60,000 ounces just in August alone.

That said, gold price charts make it clear that central bank buying is not the only driver of gold demand. The data simply doesn’t line up.

“Chinese central bank buying is important. Not because they’ve been doing it all along, but because they’ve been doing it recently,” Widdup pointed out in his keynote address at the Resources Rising Stars Conference.

“This a trend that’s been going on for some time. In Western markets, ETF buying and exchange traded funds are a major demand driver for gold.

“The pattern of buying or selling by ETFs does more closely match the pattern of the gold price.

“What I take from this is that western markets have not been paying attention, even 12 months ago, to the gold price trend, but they will wake up, and perhaps they already are.”

Trust in US dollar falls

For all that, Widdup believes there’s an underlying structural shift in sentiment that could be the true driver of gold’s accelerating fortunes.

A long-term trend in US economic policy toward higher debt has accelerated under the Trump Administration, driving up bond yields and under cutting the strength of the US dollar.

For the first time since the 1980s, global reserves of US dollars are falling significantly, and most of those outflows seem to be pouring into gold.

Global International Reserves. Pic: The Gold Observer

“Gold is moving up and what I think a lot of people would agree with is that the conspiracy of moving away from US dollars into gold is playing out into mainstream now,” Widdup said.

Is copper the most needed commodity ever?

The demand for copper has been boiling away quietly under the radar for some time now, driven by depreciating copper mine grades and the global shift to electrification.

“[Copper] has one foot in both camps. It’s in the new world, it’s in the old world, it contributes to AI, goes into the power lines, all those things are incredibly important,” Widdup explained.

Historically, there have been three major periods where copper struggled to break through price ceilings.

Copper Prices (1959-2025). Source: Macro Trends

The copper market tends to heat up every two decades or so, but struggles to break through price ceilings in a way the gold market simply doesn’t experience.

“When gold goes up, it’s because of the desire of ownership. And it’s not limited by price. Copper is,” Widdup explained.

Copper’s practical nature means it tends to go through periods of lowered demand as higher prices push end-users to rely on stockpiles rather than buy up more expensive fresh copper supplies.

“[On the chart] we see that last breakout where the copper price roof, if you like, went up by three and a half times was when China became the major purchaser of commodities,” Widdup points out.

“So, I cast my mind forward and think, well, what is the new China as a demand force in the commodity market, which applies itself to many, many commodities, but copper is a big one.

“[It’s] AI and the new world of electrification, decarbonisation, etc. Copper is majorly hinged to that.

“And this will drive a lot of other commodities, because you can’t put up copper power lines without steel pylons, etc.

“So, good for all commodities, I think.”

Mining Boom clock strikes 5:30… or so

The ‘mining bust’ of the last two of three years is coming to an end, says Widdup, as small cap resources companies – and particularly junior gold companies – have begun to trend higher in recent months.

“Maybe it’s a bit early to tell,” Widdup cautions, “but [I] wonder whether we’ve actually seen a reversal of sentiment around April this year.”

Trump’s liberation day tariffs rocked markets, sending them plunging multiple percentage points for a brief period of time, but it’s all focused global market attention on commodities.

“And all of a sudden, you’ve got money starting to change direction,” Widdup said.

“This bust has played out in liquidity. That’s what drives it, money coming into the market or going out. And the best measure of that is IPOs. You can’t list a new company without a strong market.”

In 2025, the ASX resources sector saw only two listings in the entire first half of the year.

“Since mid-year, since June, there have been eight, it might even be nine by now, IPOs, and most of those are above order,” Widdup said.

“So, they’re trading at higher prices, and they actually sold their shares in the IPO. That’s an incredibly strong indicator for me.”

Adding to the evidence that positive sentiment is building in resources more broadly, the small and junior companies are catching up with the larger stocks after a period of downturn, rising as interest rates fall and risk appetite returns.