Nova Minerals moves into fast track of antimony race

• Antimony prices have jumped from US$12,000/t early last year to more than US$60,000/t, with forecasts above US$100,000/t caused by severe supply constraints
• At its Estelle Project in Alaska Nova Minerals is drilling aggressively following early high-grade results
• Nova is targeting military-grade antimony production by 2026 with the ultimate aim of establishing a secure, US-based antimony supply

Special Report: As the US Government starts to ramp up support for domestic antimony supply, Nova Minerals’ Estelle Project in Alaska is shaping up as a strategic solution and with potential to fast-track production.

While a lot of commentary about antimony since the Chinese export ban has focused on its defence uses, another sector has stressed just how critical the mineral is for everyday life.

US-based Responsible Battery Coalition executive director Steve Christensen said just ahead of America’s summer driving season that the industry group considered its current supply squeeze a “national emergency”.

Christensen said American companies were increasingly having to procure their supply from an emerging “grey market”, where sellers that had stocked up on the material were charging extremely high prices.

The main applications of antimony are in lead-acid batteries used to start vehicles, as well as the military’s explosive formulations – flares, night vision goggles and infrared sensors.

Prices for the critical mineral have skyrocketed more than 500 per cent since dominant supplier China restricted imports into the US last September, then followed that up with a complete ban in December.

From US$12,000/t at the beginning of 2024 antimony is now US$60,100/t, with some analysts forecasting prices to reach at least US$100,000.

One of the key drivers of demand – US defence spending – is set to hit US$1.1 trillion for 2026, a 13 per cent increase on the previous year.

In Europe defence budgets rose 17% year-over-year to $693 billion in 2024. And that was before the 5 per cent of GDP target agreed to during last month’s NATO meeting of the 32 alliance leaders.

Despite this, there are currently no viable domestic antimony mining operations in the US.

Demand pull, supply push

The Trump administration has recently made a start to rev up American production, seeing the erosion of American supply chains – and the mining industry that supports them – as a major national security concern.

As part of that push, US-based company Perpetua Resources was awarded US$59.2 million in Defense Production Act Title III (DPA) funding to advance its Stibnite antimony project in Idaho. Also in May this year it received up to US$6.9 million from the US Army for Stibnite.

The Department of Defense (DoD) has invested more than US$870 million over the past four years through DPA grants to bolster the supply of minerals critical to America’s economy and defence, and this is expected to accelerate under the current administration.

But even with its jump-start cash, Stibnite is estimated to meet only 35 per cent of US antimony demand from its initial six years of production – and that won’t begin for at least three years.

Nova in a pole position

RFC Ambrian said earlier this year that as the antimony market faced “severe stress”, it could identify only nine projects globally that had the potential for near-term antimony production.

One of these is Australian explorer and developer Nova Minerals’ (ASX:NVA) Estelle Project in Alaska’s prolific Tintina belt.

While Nova is aiming to upgrade the JORC resource of 9.9Moz gold to the 10Moz milestone, it’s also well into a 3000m diamond drill program at Estelle’s Stibium prospect. The goal at Stibium is to deliver a maiden mineral resource estimate (MRE) for gold and antimony this year.

The first drill hole was designed to test a potential high-grade gold-antimony zone, which was delineated through extensive surface sampling.

This confirmed a significant mineralised footprint of about 800 metres by 400 metres. Standout results included 12 rock samples of at least 30 per cent antimony with a high of 60.5 per cent, and 16 samples of more than 5 grams per tonne (g/t) gold with a standout of 141 g/t.

Nova is making the most of the near 24-hour daylight during Alaska’s summer with round-the-clock drilling on a rotational basis, seven days a week.

In other efforts to be a frontrunner in the antimony race, the company has applied for its own DoD funding which is now well advanced through the approvals process. Nova believes that, pending its successful application, it could fast track its assets through to initial production of antimony for military-grade applications by 2026.

This would form a key part of its strategy to create a fully secure and integrated US domestic antimony supply chain based in Alaska.

Drilling at the Styx prospect is also on this northern summer’s schedule after results including up to 54.1% antimony and other high-grade intercepts.

Nova CEO Mr Christopher Gerteisen said the campaign’s focus was on initiating a maiden resource at the Stibium prospect for both gold and antimony, while also advancing the RPM and Korbel gold deposits toward feasibility and permitting.

“With both antimony and gold trading near historic highs, the strategic significance and potential economic return of these near-surface assets underscore Nova’s strong growth trajectory and long-term value proposition.”

“Nova is well advanced in identifying a potential US-based metallurgical refining site and, with potential DoD funding, has the ability to rapidly expand drilling at the site.

“Through our Estelle Project and potential partnerships with other regional sources, we believe Nova is well placed to help re-establish Alaska as a strategic supplier of antimony to the US. This would reinforce supply chain resilience and national security.”

This article was developed in collaboration with Nova Minerals, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.