New research report puts eye-catching valuation on emerging sulphate of potash player
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Despite having a substantial resource that could fuel a multi-decade potash project, Sydney-based research firm Corporate Connect believes Trigg Mining is substantially undervalued.
In its research note, Corporate Connect noted that, while the company’s projects are in the early stages, they still valued it at about 40c per share using assumptions informed from more progressed peer projects.
This is well above Trigg Mining’s (ASX:TMG) current share price of about 10c per share with the researchers adding that there was potential for further upside as it de-risked its projects through development stages.
Trigg, with a market capitalisation of just $10.9 million, is developing a large brine-hosted deposit at its flagship Lake Throssell sulphate of potash project in WA’s Laverton region.
A Scoping Study on the project is due for completion next month which will provide the first detailed insight into the project’s commercial potential.
“This is a large, scalable deposit able to support a sustainable multi-decade WA production hub to meet growing global demand for SOP,” the research note, by experienced resource analyst Joh Snyman, says.
Corporate Connect notes that there is limited global production of sulphate of potash – a premium fertiliser that is chloride-free and hence suitable for growing high-value crops that are sensitive to salt in the soil, coupled with strong demand for fertiliser.
This is due to a growing population coupled with a fall in arable land per capita.
“There are limited global producers of SOP, and a large proportion of global supply is chemically manufactured from muriate of potash or MOP through an expensive and environmentally unfriendly secondary (Mannheim) process,” Corporate Connect says.
“Brine-hosted SOP is a natural mined source with limited processing and therefore is potentially able to be organically certified for use in organic agriculture,” it says.
It notes that emerging producers like Trigg Mining are ideally placed to develop a domestic source of ESG-friendly potash supply, with Australian demand currently wholly supplied by imports.
“Trigg’s projects are located close to existing energy and transport infrastructure, providing potential cost-effective links to domestic and international markets,” it says.
Trigg currently has three projects in Western Australia that are prospective for SOP.
Of these, Lake Throssell is the most advanced with an IIndicated and Inferred Resource of 14.3 million tonnes grading 10.4kg per cubic metre SOP equivalent.
It also has a further Inferred Resource of 5.9Mt at 5.1kg/m3 SOP equivalent at Lake Rason, while the Lake Yeo project provides a pipeline for future growth.
Corporate Connect says that not only is Lake Throssell a large, scalable deposit able to support a sustainable multi-decade WA production hub to meet growing demand for seaborne SOP, it also has upside from Lake Rason and Lake Yeo.
The Lake Throssell resource contains a higher confidence Indicated Resource of 1.9Mt SOP at 11.1kg/m3 SOP equivalent that will form the basis for the initial project payback period in the scoping study due next month.
Additionally, hypersaline-hosted SOP projects like Lake Throssell typically sit lower on the cost curve compared to chemically derived secondary SOP, a point that is further enhanced by Australian projects having higher evaporation rates than other sources.
It also tends to have higher grades and lower impurities, while being naturally occurring and requiring less processing reduces its carbon footprint and opens up the potential to be organically certified.
“Project economics appear attractive with a high cash margin, however extracting SOP from a brine resource is new to Australia,” the note adds.
“Fortunately, Trigg Mining should benefit from several more progressed peer SOP projects that will provide valuable learnings and prove up the economics of local SOP projects.”
Corporate Connect added that key events to track the company’s progress over coming periods include:
This article was developed in collaboration with Trigg Mining, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing.
This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.