Kristie Batten: BHP’s Filo takeover shortens list of large copper developers

One of Australia’s top mining journalists, Kristie Batten writes for Stockhead every week in her regular column placing a watchful eye on the movers and shakers of the small cap resources scene.

When BHP (ASX:BHP) and Lundin Mining Corporation announced a joint bid for Toronto-listed copper explorer Filo Corp in late July, it set pulses racing.

The C$4.1 billion cash and scrip bid represents a premium of 32.2% and will give the pair ownership of the Filo del Sol copper project.

BHP will also buy 50% of Lundin’s Josemaria project for US$690 million.

Both projects sit on the border of Chile and Argentina.

Goldman Sachs forecasts the two projects have the potential to produce a combined 400,000t of copper per annum, but could cost US$12-16 billion due to the infrastructure, which would include a desalination plant and concentrate pipeline.

Hot Chili (ASX:HCH) managing director Christian Easterday was quick to highlight the lack of large-scale copper projects outside the majors in his presentation to the Precious Metals Summit in Colorado this month.

“There’s not many of us out there and there’s not many that are meaningful and near-term,” he said.

“With Filo being taken over by BHP, the list just got shorter.”

In fact, according to Hot Chili, there are only a handful of projects with the potential to produce around 100,000tpa of copper sitting in companies outside the majors.

Hot Chili’s Costa Fuego in Chile is one. The others are SolGold’s Cascabel project in Ecuador, Los Andes Copper’s Vizcachitas project in Chile and McEwen Mining’s Loz Azules project in Argentina.

All are in South America, reaffirming the region’s position as a global hot spot for copper.

“The region hosts almost 20% of new copper supply,” Easterday said.

Capstone Copper is ramping up its Mantoverde copper project in Chile to the north of Costa Fuego, which Easterday says is similar to what Hot Chili is aiming to build.

Costa Fuego

Hot Chili, which has spent $220 million at Costa Fuego, completed a preliminary economic assessment for the project in 2023, outlining capital costs of US$1.05 billion.

Costs are low compared to the company’s copper peers due to Costa Fuego’s low elevation and proximity to the coast.

“It’s half the cost to build because we’re not up in the Andes,” Easterday said.

The project is projected to produce 112,000t of copper equivalent in the first 14 years at a C1 cash cost of US$1.33 per pound, net of by-product credits.

Using a US$3.85/lb copper price and US$1750 an ounce gold price, the project has a post-tax net present value of US$1.1 billion and internal rate of return of 21%.

“We are not special by grade, but we’re special by the location and that has directly led to these financial outcomes,” Easterday said.

A pre-feasibility study is underway and due for completion by the end of the year.

Copper is now trading at around US$4.26/lb, while gold is at a record of above US$2600/oz.

“Every US10c above US$3.85 (copper), we add about another US$100 million NPV after tax to the bottom line,” Easterday said.

Hot Chili’s “secret weapon” for funding the project is its new 80%-owned subsidiary, Huasco Water, a joint venture with Compañía Minera del Pacífico.

Huasco holds a maritime water permit and will aim to develop a multi-user seawater and desalinated water supply network for communities, agriculture and new mining developments in the Huasco Valley region of Chile.

The company will release a study on the water business in the coming months.

“The project is positioned for major catalysts at the end of this year,” Easterday said.

ASX unmoved

Despite owning the largest copper development project on the ASX outside the majors in the world’s hot spot for copper development and M&A, Hot Chili shares have fallen by 37% over the past year.

The company listed on the TSX in 2021, but it still underperforms against its Toronto-listed peers.

Of the four firms that issue research coverage on Hot Chili, three are based in Canada, further highlighting the disinterest in the Australian market.

That’s despite counting Glencore as its major shareholder.

“We’re in the early stages of a copper cycle,” Easterday said.

“It’s a very, very different cycle we’re moving into. It’s about lack of supply.”

Earlier this year, S&P Global Commodity Insights found that the average time from discovery to production was now 16.3 years.

“The timeframes of 17-20 years to develop these assets are very real,” Easterday said.

“We’re sitting at probably the precipice of an electrification future, where copper is the key ingredient, and we simply don’t have an answer about where the supply is going to come from.”

Easterday said the incentive price still needed to be higher for new large-scale copper mines.

“We’re like a large-scale iron ore producer when iron ore is sitting at US$20/t,” he said.