Cobalt prices hit US$70,000/t in December; a 119% increase over 12 months
‘While Gigafactories pop up at record speeds, developing industrial-scale [cobalt] mines still takes 10-15 years’: Eurasian Resources Group
Lithium producers are raking in the cash
Our High Voltage column wraps all the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, manganese, magnesium, and vanadium.
Cobalt price record could be broken in 2022: Fastmarkets
In early 2018, countless ASX explorers jumped on the cobalt bandwagon as prices peaked above $US100,000/t (~$US50/lb).
When prices began plummeting, the fair-weather battery metals stocks — which was most of them — moved onto the next hot thing.
Those few that stayed the course are now in the box seat.
After seven straight months of gains, cobalt prices hit US$70,000/t in December; a 119% increase over 12 months, but still shy of all time highs.
Diversified mining company Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) told Fastmarkets that a new record price could be reached very soon.
“The underlying reason behind this is straightforward: while Gigafactories pop up at record speeds, developing industrial-scale mines still takes 10-15 years on average,” chief executive officer Benedikt Sobotka says.
“Importantly, downside risks surround the timely commissioning and ramping up of many existing projects, in view of global shortages of mining equipment and the adoption of the historically troublesome high-pressure acid-leach technology at numerous mine projects in Indonesia.”
The incumbent route to make battery grade nickel and cobalt from ‘laterite’ ore is High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) which is very expensive and historically prone to failure.
“While it seems ‘obvious’ to us today that much of the tightness is underscored by stellar demand growth from the EV segment, just a year ago, most of us would have sniggered with disbelief at the prospect of EV sales more than doubling in 2021,” Sobotka says.
“Yet it is now a reality, and the pace of EV adoption shows few signs of losing momentum.
“Even demand from traditional cobalt metal end-use sectors, which account for around one-quarter of overall consumption, looks set to undergo a boom this year, spurred by the recovery of the aerospace sector.”
So, how do investors get a ticket to the cobalt show? As we said, there aren’t many quality cobalt stocks left on the ASX. Here’s a handful with significant exposure:
Pricing records will continue to tumble, PLS says, with spodumene prices of US$2600-3000/t expected in the upcoming March quarter.
That’s a far cry from the $US380/t miners were getting late 2020.
PLS boss Ken Brinsden says analysts underestimate just how tight the lithium market is, and that carmakers will struggle to find the lithium needed to fill EV orders as demand booms.
“I don’t want to be trite, but carmakers have been asleep at the wheel,” he said.
“They haven’t been paying enough attention to the supply base in battery raw materials in the last five years.
“And it’s coming back to haunt them because insufficient incentive was placed in the market when it was really required especially in that period 3-5 years ago to get to where we needed to be today.”
That has created a dearth of new supply Brinsden said “now will take some years” to sort out.
Battery Metals Winners and Losers
Here’s how a basket of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, magnesium, manganese, and vanadium are performing>>>
Battery metals stocks missing from our list? Shoot a friendly mail to [email protected]
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