Gold Digger: Gold stocks take a breather as price run slows

• ASX gold stocks hit by pause in bullish price action
• Newmont and Northern Star, ASX’s two biggest pure-play gold miners, report September numbers
• Hawk Resources and Zuleika Gold among this week’s top gainers

Gold, the unstoppable force for most of 2025, hit an immovable object on Tuesday, dropping 5.3% (and over 6% at one point) as buying pressure built up from the crowded ETF trade.

All’s well that ends well. Damage to the ASX gold miners was bad for a couple days, but few experts see a big retracement on the cards, with most investment banks only recently upping forecasts to US$4500-5000/oz and beyond.

JP Morgan now thinks gold will average US$5055/oz by the fourth quarter of next year, the latest big bank to go bullish.

Gold is currently running a little over US$4100/oz, around $6300/oz in Aussie dollar terms.

In that context, gold miners are printing wild amounts of cash.

Newmont Corporation (ASX:NEM), the world’s biggest gold miner, was the latest to report today and the FCF numbers are startling.

In the first quarter of 2024, Newmont saw US$74m in cash outflows.

That grew rapidly to US$1.636bn by the fourth quarter of 2024 and hit US$1.571bn in the September quarter, with the US$4.49bn generated through the first nine months of this year already far eclipsing the whole of 2024 (US$2.92bn).

As long time CEO Tom Palmer looks to move on, replaced by Natascha Viljoen, he is leaving the mining giant in rude health, with net debt falling to just US$12m.

Canaccord Genuity’s Cary MacRury said Newmont’s performance came ahead of expectations, with earnings per share of US$1.71 coming well ahead of consensus of US$1.43.

Free cash flow generation fell from the record US$1.71bn seen in the June quarter, but was ahead of Canaccord’s expectations of US$1.19bn.

“Newmont has repurchased $3.3 billion of shares YTD under its authorised buyback programs, including $516 million in the quarter and an additional $179 million in October, with $2.7 billion remaining on the previously upsized $6B program,” MacRury added.

“Overall, the quarter highlights a continuation of stronger operating performance, with four solid quarters in a row and tracking well to achieve its 2025 guidance.”

Newmont’s gold output clocked in at 1.42Moz, in line with Canaccord’s 1.40Moz forecast, with all-in sustaining costs of US$1566/oz 10% below the broker’s estimate and 2% down QoQ.

At the same time, the company said its 2026 gold production from Newmont’s managed operations (not including its JVs run by fellow gold miner Barrick) would likely come in at the lower end of this year’s guidance range, with the miner’s shares coming off 4%.

ASX gold miners drop

It wasn’t the only big miner suffering on Friday.

Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) dropped ~1.65%, a day on from a mixed quarterly report, which showed it sold 381,000oz at an AISC of A$2522/oz and generated underlying free cash flow of just $14m with elevated capex continuing at the Fimiston Mill expansion in Kalgoorlie.

That report also revealed a 20,000oz impact to gold sales from operational disruptions at the Jundee and South Kalgoorlie operations early in the December quarter.

At the same time, it maintained production guidance of 1.7-1.85Moz at AISC of $2300-2700/oz for FY26.

It came off the back of ministerial approval in WA for the Fimiston South project, enabling the expansion of the Super Pit to support a new mill development at the key Kalgoorlie operation which is in its last year of construction.

“We remain well positioned to deliver our full-year guidance, with stronger grades expected at KCGM in the second half along with improved volume and grade performance across the broader portfolio,” NST MD Stuart Tonkin said.

“Combined with growing leverage to gold prices and ongoing cost focus, we are firmly aligned to our purpose of delivering superior returns for our shareholders.”

On the positive side, RBC said cash in the bank came in $200m above its expectations at $616m with costs 7% better than forecast and higher gold prices helping.

The ASX All Ords gold sub-index fell 1.58% to end the week, with its one week loss clocking in at 9.25%.

But the valuation uplift in the ASX gold sector has been stark in 2025, with the sub-index still up a whopping 89.43% YTD.

Winners and losers

Here’s how ASX-listed precious metals stocks are performing:

Gold medal performers

Who were some of the top precious metals names this week?

Zuleika Gold (ASX:ZAG)

A funding line from the Creasy family sent shares in Zuleika flying this week, securing $5 million to splash on exploration on WA’s rich Zuleika Shear.

$2m came via the exercise of 2c options by Yandal Investments, one of the key companies controlled by billionaire Perth prospector Mark Creasy.

His partner Annie Guo’s Auracle Group, also ZAG’s exec chair, delivered a $3m loan as the junior looks to accelerate work on its Zuleika and Credo Well projects.

“Securing $5 million in new funding marks a significant milestone for Zuleika as we move into an exciting growth phase,” non-exec director Alan Willis said.

“The proceeds will allow us to intensify exploration across our high-priority targets and build on the strong geological foundation we have established in one of Australia’s most productive gold belts.

“Our strong balance sheet will also support our corporate strategy including finalising the long-standing legal action to pursue fair value for what is rightfully owed to us.”

That last sentence is a reference to the long-running case over damages surrounding an historical dispute over tenements that now form part of Catalyst Metals’ (ASX:CYL) Plutonic gold project.

After a postponement, the trial is expected to be re-listed for a hearing in Q1 2026, Zuleika said earlier this month.

Hawk Resources (ASX:HWK)

Formerly known as Alderan Resources, the obscure Hawk soared last Friday after announcing a $5m placement and option over a scandium project in WA’s remote West Musgrave region.

Known as Olympus, the project will provide a second limb to diversify the junior, which is aiming to also drill its Cactus copper project in Utah.

Scandium is one of the key future facing commodities which has become a focus of the critical minerals conversation and supply chain in the West.

The project hosts a 7km by 4km scandium in soil anomaly and high-grade RAB intercepts from surface, with a permit-to-enter application in with the Ngaanyatjarra traditional owner group.

Hawk can earn up to 80% of the project, in a deal which also includes the transfer for $1 of unpatented claims surrounding Utah’s Horn silver mine.

“The opportunistic acquisition of Olympus fits neatly with our strategy: copper now, with critical-minerals optionality moving forward,” Hawk MD Scott Caithness said.

“Historical work defines a ~7km × 4km anomaly above 500ppm Sc (pXRF), supported by shallow RAB results including 5m @ 948ppm Sc and 11m @ 934ppm Sc from surface.

“Our first steps are straightforward: obtain permit-to-enter with the Ngaanyatjarra, run confirmatory laboratory assays to validate pXRF, and then execute a systematic program to test thickness and continuity.”