Sizable silver deficits (physical demand greater than supply) set to continue in 2023, and beyond
Investor activity which has now pushed the silver price to a 30% gain over the past 6 months
Small Cap Quarterly Wrap: Besra, West Wits, Classic
Our Gold Digger column wraps all the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to precious metals.
As a precious metals bull, silver’s record-breaking performance in 2022 makes for great reading.
Demand rose by 18% to a new high of 1242Moz.
Meanwhile, limited organic growth, project delays and disruptions resulted in a 0.6% fall in mine production in 2022.
This led to the silver market posting what may well have been the largest deficit on record.
In fact, the deficits in 2021 and 2022 more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years.
Another sizable +100Moz deficit is expected in 2023, and beyond.
Why? It’s hard to ‘turn on’ substantial additional silver supply, which is often mined alongside other metals.
Last year’s decline was driven by by-product output from lead/zinc mines (-3.5%), particularly in China and Peru.
Perhaps it’s partially this massive (and ongoing) demand-supply imbalance, alongside appetite for risk hedges, which has prompted investors to pour back into the metal in 2023.
Professional investors hold the key to silver’s rise
Silver has a unique dual function, as an industrial metal and investor safe haven/risk hedge.
Prices rarely take their cue from the former (fundamentals like demand and supply) and are instead largely driven by the latter (professional investor activity).
It is that investor activity which has now pushed the silver price to a 30% gain over the past six months.
But Metals Focus believes this can’t last, for one reason: The Fed won’t cut rates in the back end of 2023.
“In spite of the recent boom in investor demand and the price rally, we believe that institutional investment will lose momentum later this year,” it says.
“This reflects our view that the current market consensus, that the Fed will be forced to cut rates in H2.23, will be proven wrong.
“A likely equity market correction, as a result of weaker corporate earnings, could also trigger an investor sell-off across assets, which will inevitably affect silver (as well as gold).
“All these factors should see the silver price eventually suffer from investor liquidations in the second half of the year, driving prices lower.”
Silver’s fate in the Fed’s hands
Unlike Metals Focus, Morningstar expects the Fed to pause its rate hikes by summer 2023, then start cutting around the end of 2023.
It admits interest rates have risen much further than most forecasters (including them) anticipated, with the US economy proving more resilient to the impact of higher rates than expected.
“We think that households’ excess savings and other factors are temporarily cushioning the hit from higher interest rates,” it says.
“In 2023, we expect the impact of rate hikes to be felt more strongly in other parts of the US economy.
“We project a year-end 2023 federal funds rate of 4.75%, falling to about 2.00% by the end of 2024.”
Winners & Losers
Here’s how ASX-listed precious metals stocks are performing:
Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop.
With Aussie prices sitting above $3000/oz, CLZ is on the cusp of gold production at the perfect time.
Construction at its flagship 2,800oz Kat Gap mine in WA continued apace during the March quarter, with first production pencilled in for the current quarter.
A bulk sample stockpile is ready to be processed once the plant has been assembled.
The bulk sample has an estimated average grade of 4.82g/t for 1,011 ounces of contained gold, worth ~$3m at current prices.
It comes hot on the heels of a $20.1m institutional funding package to fast-track phase-1 development as well as extensional drilling across the wider project area, which is already coming up with the goods.
In January, the company announced a bunch of high-grade gold hits beneath the existing resource at Kat Gap, including 10m @ 9.26g/t Au from 57m.
$80m capped BEZ is now up ~450% since inking a $US300m non-binding offtake and funding deal with bullion dealer and major shareholder Quantum Metal Recovery Inc in March.
This cash – paid over 30 months against future production ounces — would cover development of its 3Moz ‘Bau’ project in Malaysia’s Sarawak region.
BEZ has now received initial payment of $US2m from Quantum ahead of finalising the offtake funding facility. It is entitled to a further US$3m upon execution of the agreement, expected very soon.
The company is now updating an old feasibility study completed back in 2013, with initial results due in the second half of 2023. Pilot production is also pencilled in for later this year.
Meanwhile, assay results from 2022 drilling at Bekajang point to a high-grade feeder conduit system below the Bau Limestone-Pedawan Shale Contact (LSC).
Highlights like 12.6m @ 22.9g/t from 58.4m will be followed up, the company says.
WWI continues to advance the 4.28Moz Witwatersrand Basin project (WBP) in South Africa toward first gold pour in Q4 this year.
In April, WWI received approval from South Africa’s Joburg City Power for a 7.5MVA power supply to its WBP’s Phase 1 Qala Shallows mine.
The approval of a 7.5MVA power supply is expected to reduce the DFS’ assumed timeline by six months or more, resulting in lower energy costs during the critical construction and build-up of the mine’s production.
Phase 1 production will average 55,000ozpa over an initial 10 years, at very good all-in sustaining costs of US$962/oz.
That culminates in pre-tax NPV and IRR of US$180m and 33%, respectively, at a conservative gold price of US$1750/oz.
Peak funding requirements are US$63m. The company says it is “in advanced discussions with multiple funders” to secure the optimum funding solution for the WBP.
A study on Phase 2 production up to 200,000ozpa is scheduled for this year.
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