• Gold prices retreated last week on Pfizer’s vaccine news
  • Price was trading around $US1,880 on Friday – buying opportunity?
  • TD Securities and Royal Bank of Canada say macro case remains strong

Gold prices have dipped following positive news about Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine candidate – but a number of analyst say the bull case for gold remains.

The Royal Bank of Canada and TD Securities last week both made the case for gold even as it tested a crucial support level around $US1,850 an ounce on Pfizer’s news.

“Vaccine should ultimately be a boon for gold bugs, as the Fed could keep nominal rates capped while inflation expectations could firm further as a result,” TD Securities strategists wrote on Wednesday.

RBC meanwhile said in a note to clients on Thursday that while investor flows to gold had levelled out, an effective vaccine would take time to distribute, the economy would take time to recover and political uncertainty remained a worry.

“We believe that there is still a clear appreciation for gold amid all the uncertainty that still persists,” the bank said. “Gold’s story is not yet over in our view.”

“All of the reasons for gold strength over the past few months are still in place. The horse has left the barn,” Bryan Slusarchuk, CEO of mining company Fosterville South Exploration, told CNN last week. “People are looking at gold as an alternative currency.”

Gavin Wendt, the Sydney-based founding director and senior resource analyst with Minelife, agrees.

He told Stockhead that central banks have been buying gold and “there’s every indication there is going to be more government stimulus.

“That creates a fantastic environment for gold.”

He said in the near-term it could push past $US2,000 an ounce and hit $US2,200 or $US2,300 next year.

“Ten per cent upside – that’s easily achieved,” he said.

Winners & Losers

Here’s how ASX-listed gold stocks performed November 09 – November 13 [intraday].

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop:

CODE COMPANY 1 WEEK RETURN % 1 YEAR RETURN % PRICE [intraday Friday] MARKET CAP
CGN Crater Gold Mining 255 160 0.039 $ 60,147,297.48
AZS Azure Minerals 117 386 0.705 $ 157,425,201.05
ANX Anax Metals 96 332 0.048 $ 11,655,269.89
TMZ Thomson Resources 74 342 0.12 $ 18,073,685.50
ANL Amani Gold 50 -25 0.0015 $ 14,080,495.12
SKY SKY Metals 35 188 0.23 $ 56,729,460.44
RVR Red River Resources 31 90 0.275 $ 139,799,079.09
TMX Terrain Minerals 27 367 0.014 $ 10,124,254.13
SNG Siren Gold 25 0 0.52 $ 28,472,926.53
HXG Hexagon Energy 23 -21 0.058 $ 17,253,570.42
GBZ GBM Resources 23 398 0.185 $ 68,120,660.73
ADN Andromeda Metals 22 477 0.225 $ 372,838,267.82
E2M E2 Metals 21 378 0.86 $ 109,186,654.38
TRM Truscott Mining Corp 20 200 0.025 $ 2,950,597.06
BNR Bulletin Resources 20 300 0.084 $ 15,060,618.22
GIB Gibb River Diamonds 19 434 0.155 $ 30,901,416.75
GTR GTI Resources 19 90 0.019 $ 12,198,341.96
DRE Dreadnought Resources 18 225 0.026 $ 56,296,186.03
BYH Bryah Resources 18 49 0.073 $ 9,626,790.32
OKR Okapi Resources 18 25 0.2 $ 7,208,573.20
CTO Citigold Corp 17 180 0.014 $ 34,133,751.72
HAW Hawthorn Resources 16 128 0.11 $ 36,686,717.43
THR Thor Mining 16 267 0.022 $ 8,715,667.49
HRZ Horizon 15 -12 0.115 $ 68,157,024.00
PDI Predictive Discovery 15 723 0.069 $ 67,314,900.87
SVY Stavely Minerals 15 -25 0.885 $ 225,731,655.98
CY5 Cygnus Gold 15 457 0.195 $ 20,470,335.80
MKR Manuka Resources 15 0 0.47 $ 32,970,383.81
LNY Laneway Resources 14 33 0.008 $ 26,425,461.53
WCN White Cliff Minerals 14 450 0.033 $ 16,016,291.95
AAU Antilles Gold 14 72 0.05 $ 10,732,790.70
CHN Chalice Gold Mines 14 1791 3.31 $ 1,003,127,027.50
GWR GWR Group 13 89 0.17 $ 45,049,876.08
WWI West Wits Mining 13 1640 0.087 $ 96,879,386.93
NML Navarre Minerals 13 152 0.265 $ 146,459,380.77
ARN Aldoro Resources 13 0 0.135 $ 8,629,504.39
AYM Australia United Mining 13 800 0.009 $ 16,583,197.37
GNM Great Northern Minerals 13 112 0.018 $ 14,442,503.14
AWV Anova Metals 12 175 0.029 $ 41,559,731.80
BGL Bellevue Gold 11 198 1.37 $ 1,091,866,714.90
ARL Ardea Resources 11 -16 0.49 $ 63,196,938.09
PRX Prodigy Gold 11 -43 0.049 $ 27,289,497.48
SBR Sabre Resources 11 233 0.01 $ 12,506,462.58
KAI Kairos Minerals 10 319 0.043 $ 70,365,732.19
SVL Silver Mines 10 147 0.225 $ 225,839,610.04
NWM Norwest Minerals 10 -43 0.115 $ 8,391,711.20
AUC Ausgold 9 321 0.059 $ 79,321,322.00
SLZ Sultan Resources 9 258 0.24 $ 15,992,909.47
NVA Nova Minerals 9 374 0.18 $ 278,355,102.30
TLM Talisman Mining 9 20 0.12 $ 22,395,406.20
ONX Orminex 9 -72 0.024 $ 12,938,452.03
KRM Kingsrose Mining 9 12 0.037 $ 26,280,264.67
BAR Barra Resources 9 68 0.037 $ 24,285,891.64
AXE Archer Materials 8 316 0.52 $ 118,039,186.65
GMR Golden Rim Resources 8 0 0.013 $ 23,287,444.32
KSN Kingston Resources 8 71 0.265 $ 62,248,612.86
ARV Artemis Resources 8 366 0.135 $ 164,395,825.97
PNR Pantoro 8 32 0.205 $ 295,763,627.88
RDS Redstone Resources 8 40 0.014 $ 7,316,820.22
PUR Pursuit Minerals 8 88 0.014 $ 7,713,159.71
SMI Santana Minerals 8 2 0.215 $ 22,000,683.60
SRN Surefire Resources 7 357 0.032 $ 20,100,916.48
MTC Metalstech 7 1131 0.16 $ 22,717,983.89
STN Saturn Metals 6 122 0.745 $ 80,806,059.95
S2R S2 Resources 6 139 0.275 $ 86,595,074.23
RSG Resolute Mining 6 -26 0.825 $ 888,633,628.33
BRB Breaker Resources 6 -39 0.19 $ 60,280,571.87
MCT Metalicity 6 338 0.019 $ 31,270,212.25
ALY Alchemy Resources 5 71 0.02 $ 13,444,869.06
STK Strickland Metals 5 400 0.1 $ 42,010,152.10
EMU EMU NL 5 27 0.061 $ 21,210,326.16
AMG Ausmex Mining 5 -58 0.042 $ 23,545,437.33
OBM Ora Banda Mining 5 82 0.325 $ 273,262,523.63
LEX Lefroy Exploration 5 7 0.22 $ 26,076,251.52
CBY Canterbury Resources 5 -54 0.115 $ 9,994,841.13
TTM Titan Minerals 4 -33 0.12 $ 128,245,345.57
SFM Santa Fe Minerals 4 45 0.12 $ 7,645,972.85
AMI Aurelia Metals 4 16 0.505 $ 441,361,817.49
CYL Catalyst Metals 4 7 2.61 $ 216,005,217.82
PAK Pacific American Holdings 4 -13 0.027 $ 8,493,792.30
BRV Big River Gold 4 244 0.055 $ 72,300,486.76
PKO Peako 4 94 0.029 $ 5,682,213.51
MTH Mithril Resources 4 383 0.029 $ 60,525,179.23
DEG De Grey Mining 4 1989 1.17 $ 1,444,609,018.93
SBM St Barbara 3 7 2.74 $ 1,869,196,529.65
GOR Gold Road Resources 3 25 1.4 $ 1,179,099,162.32
AQX Alice Queen 3 -16 0.031 $ 32,195,225.29
CLA Celsius Resources 3 162 0.034 $ 25,747,196.67
NXM Nexus Minerals 3 254 0.17 $ 32,869,784.07
NES Nelson Resources 3 5 0.069 $ 7,921,347.80
TSO Tesoro Resources 3 749 0.345 $ 143,078,905.74
TAM Tanami Gold 3 93 0.077 $ 89,307,375.50
ENR Encounter Resources 3 18 0.2 $ 62,566,951.00
GMN Gold Mountain 2 -36 0.044 $ 30,345,146.66
CAZ Cazaly Resources 2 77 0.045 $ 15,837,447.02
MHC Manhattan Corp 2 588 0.0275 $ 34,483,246.02
G88 Golden Mile Resources 2 -11 0.059 $ 7,258,081.35
CWX Carawine Resources 2 17 0.305 $ 29,362,005.66
SSR SSR Mining 1 0 26.58 $ 406,705,287.04
KTA Krakatoa Resources 1 90 0.074 $ 19,868,400.00
EVN Evolution Mining 1 50 5.94 $ 9,619,492,541.20
BDC Bardoc Gold 1 -23 0.076 $ 133,279,867.95
KCN Kingsgate Consolididated 1 82 0.775 $ 171,931,714.40
NCM Newcrest Mining 1 -2 29.92 $ 23,696,470,616.68
CDV Cardinal Resources 0 220 1.04 $ 554,006,727.27
RRL Regis Resources 0 -9 4.12 $ 2,045,970,476.00
PRU Perseus Mining 0 47 1.26 $ 1,465,137,959.65
XTC Xantippe Resources 0 0 0.002 $ 8,149,128.80
MLS Metals Australia 0 33 0.002 $ 8,381,807.15
DTR Dateline Resources 0 0 0.002 $ 16,420,156.15
RMX Red Mount Mining 0 133 0.014 $ 15,838,514.85
SIH Sihayo Gold 0 34 0.022 $ 74,446,146.92
MOH Moho Resources 0 90 0.11 $ 8,244,118.96
VRC Volt Resources 0 -23 0.01 $ 21,173,735.55
FFR Firefly Resources 0 253 0.21 $ 61,456,854.06
BAT Battery Minerals 0 257 0.025 $ 49,208,751.17
A1G African Gold 0 -14 0.16 $ 5,022,647.04
AAJ Aruma Resources 0 75 0.007 $ 11,125,897.33
DCX Discovex Resources 0 -33 0.006 $ 7,176,984.46
GED Golden Deeps 0 -36 0.014 $ 7,555,669.79
KAU Kaiser Reef 0 0 0.41 $ 10,957,250.41
KGM Kalnorth Gold 0 117 0.013 $ 11,625,120.78
MSR Manas Resources 0 100 0.006 $ 15,858,974.93
MEU Marmota 0 92 0.046 $ 44,552,549.74
NPM Newpeak Metals 0 17 0.0035 $ 13,995,487.53
SI6 Six Sigma Metals 0 150 0.01 $ 11,092,666.71
TSC Twenty Seven Co. 0 75 0.007 $ 10,847,406.55
VMC Venus Metals 0 45 0.24 $ 37,769,670.75
MML Medusa Mining 0 14 0.8 $ 163,118,526.29
FFX Firefinch 0 94 0.155 $ 127,059,745.48
GML Gateway Mining 0 6 0.018 $ 34,238,088.65
KZR Kalamazoo Resources 0 110 0.63 $ 83,147,810.59
CHZ Chesser Resources 0 246 0.235 $ 98,189,398.56
LCL Los Cerros 0 48 0.155 $ 70,183,803.30
RML Resolution Minerals 0 -31 0.043 $ 12,017,315.69
NAE New Age Exploration 0 367 0.014 $ 15,550,925.74
DDD 3D Resources 0 200 0.006 $ 21,692,232.55
AME Alto Metals 0 248 0.115 $ 45,681,803.40
GUL Gullewa 0 283 0.115 $ 18,163,456.50
WAF West African Resources 0 144 1.03 $ 856,639,671.23
RND Rand Mining -1 -11 2.27 $ 142,551,885.75
FML Focus Minerals -1 36 0.375 $ 68,530,711.88
BC8 Black Cat Syndicate -1 73 0.72 $ 81,649,873.58
M2R Miramar -1 0 0.36 $ 15,413,044.80
MAU Magnetic Resources -2 119 1.14 $ 246,321,369.78
NUS Nusantara Resources -2 -8 0.285 $ 60,585,099.36
WMX Wiluna Mining -2 50 1.8 $ 180,847,737.00
TBR Tribune Resources -2 -3 6.82 $ 359,406,327.45
NST Northern Star -2 68 15.09 $ 10,447,566,639.30
MZZ Matador Mining -2 90 0.4 $ 68,022,503.60
DTM Dart Mining -3 59 0.185 $ 18,489,913.06
BCN Beacon Minerals -3 12 0.037 $ 106,071,257.49
SAR Saracen Mineral Holdings -3 72 5.63 $ 5,804,017,450.32
TNR Torian Resources -3 148 0.031 $ 23,141,691.21
MEI Meteoric Resources -3 -7 0.056 $ 70,692,217.72
ZNC Zenith Minerals -4 150 0.135 $ 42,682,204.35
FAU First Au -4 108 0.027 $ 14,528,285.17
RXL Rox Resources -4 141 0.053 $ 110,474,737.00
TAR Taruga Minerals -4 230 0.051 $ 24,688,881.32
SLR Silver Lake Resource -4 89 2 $ 1,691,921,320.32
PUA Peak Minerals -4 43 0.025 $ 14,240,210.30
WGX Westgold Resources -4 18 2.5 $ 1,034,206,858.80
GBR Great Boulder Resources -4 -12 0.048 $ 8,838,809.19
SAU Southern Gold -4 -48 0.1 $ 26,666,094.50
EMR Emerald Resources -4 53 0.595 $ 306,661,338.17
HWK Hawkstone Mining -4 28 0.0115 $ 16,627,307.86
RGL Riversgold -4 309 0.045 $ 18,204,391.49
NSM North Stawell -4 0 0.45 $ 18,400,000.00
BBX BBX Minerals -4 83 0.33 $ 140,501,358.69
YRL Yandal Resources -4 131 0.545 $ 44,882,587.55
HMX Hammer Metals -4 105 0.043 $ 31,261,404.89
DGO DGO Gold -4 223 3.21 $ 226,250,996.04
GSN Great Southern -5 24 0.082 $ 34,109,574.44
MEG Megado -5 0 0.2 $ 7,849,469.80
CEL Challenger Exploration -5 213 0.2 $ 112,351,881.80
ERM Emmerson Resources -5 -28 0.079 $ 38,145,456.05
CAI Calidus Resources -5 146 0.59 $ 158,817,129.25
MAR Malachite Resources -5 -43 0.057 $ 8,314,475.28
KWR Kingwest Resources -5 -22 0.19 $ 29,970,302.31
VKA Viking Mines -5 90 0.019 $ 6,274,357.12
SPQ Superior Resources -5 174 0.018 $ 20,245,369.39
DCN Dacian Gold -5 -58 0.35 $ 194,777,993.90
RDN Raiden Resources -6 386 0.034 $ 18,493,650.55
AGG AngloGold Ashanti -6 17 6.59 $ 585,202,938.40
CMM Capricorn Metals -6 76 1.72 $ 584,757,171.90
RMS Ramelius Resources -6 82 1.93 $ 1,492,276,056.80
MVL Marvel Gold -7 -50 0.057 $ 30,009,999.42
MDI Middle Island Resources -7 180 0.014 $ 38,813,333.68
RED Red 5 -7 -7 0.26 $ 502,498,155.26
AOP Apollo Consolidated -7 60 0.32 $ 86,110,588.80
OAU Ora Gold -8 0 0.024 $ 20,180,285.33
OKU Oklo Resources -8 81 0.235 $ 118,337,339.31
AUT Auteco Minerals -8 1122 0.11 $ 156,717,893.60
AL8 Alderan Resources -9 146 0.096 $ 26,181,364.10
MKG Mako Gold -9 14 0.1 $ 24,619,079.62
AAR Anglo Australian -9 61 0.15 $ 86,128,257.60
CST Castile Resources -9 0 0.29 $ 55,918,833.88
MRZ Mont Royal Resources -9 7 0.29 $ 9,246,840.40
AVW Avira Resources -10 350 0.009 $ 12,375,360.00
AQI Alicanto Minerals -10 137 0.135 $ 37,903,087.89
DAU Dampier Gold -10 265 0.062 $ 17,667,553.48
GRL Godolphin Resources -10 0 0.265 $ 19,710,485.15
TIE Tietto Minerals -10 28 0.385 $ 178,465,130.12
NAG Nagambie Resources -11 -9 0.05 $ 24,996,617.30
MAT Matsa Resources -11 -14 0.125 $ 32,537,605.08
TRY Troy Resources -11 -7 0.1025 $ 80,527,014.48
LCY Legacy Iron Ore -13 139 0.007 $ 49,977,908.14
GSM Golden State Mining -13 181 0.225 $ 11,808,515.00
MGV Musgrave Minerals -13 552 0.45 $ 213,656,528.25
AGS Alliance Resources -14 62 0.19 $ 32,094,014.40
CDT Castle Minerals -14 33 0.012 $ 7,590,009.82
VAN Vango Mining -14 -55 0.078 $ 75,513,049.30
HRN Horizon Gold -20 37 0.36 $ 31,607,548.92
ALK Alkane Resources -22 68 1.03 $ 610,273,520.00
REZ Resources & Energy Group -23 89 0.066 $ 30,649,336.02
CXU Cauldron Energy -24 144 0.044 $ 19,711,978.53
ADV Ardiden -25 575 0.027 $ 57,322,670.87

In the medium-term, Wendt believes the yellow metal could reach $US2,500 or $US2,800 within the next three to five years – “with the possibility the price could surprise to the upside,” given how central banks seem to be abandoning inflation targets.

“Their current strategy seems to be inflating away debt,” he said.

Wendt said that higher-cost miners would stand to benefit the most from higher gold prices.

Here are some small cap standouts from the regular ASX crowd that have been catching investor eyes lately.

Making the bull case for gold

Manuka Resources (ASX MKR) is already generating cash from its Mt Boppy mine in the Cobar Basin with production kicking off in the second quarter of this year.

Gold production from the existing reserve at the mine is expected to run through to Q2 2021, and generate $25m in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Manuka isn’t hedged, which gives the company full exposure to the high gold price.

Manuka began producing gold from stockpiled Mt Boppy ore processed through the Wonawinta plant in April and has since transitioned to treating newly mined ore from the Mt Boppy pit at Wonawinta.

Laneway Resources (ASX: LNY) has started another mining campaign at its Agate Creek mine in Queensland. Mining of 9,000oz of gold in two stages from the high-grade Sherwood pit is expected to deliver around $24m in revenue.

Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) is backed by famous mining investor Tolga Kumova and is developing a 2.3Moz gold project in WA. The company’s Bellevue project in the Wiluna-Norseman gold belt is surrounded by producing gold mines including Northern Star’s Bronzewing and Jundee, St Barbara’s Gwalia operation, and Saracen’s Thunderbox.

In October it discovered a new high-grade lode at the Bellevue project that could drive a significant resource upgrade.

Dacian Gold (ASX:DCN) had an all-in sustaining cost of under $1500 back in January, but was hurting early in 2020 with practically all of its production at the time committed at a miserly $1,768 per ounce. Just over half of its production for the 2021 financial year is also hedged at an average of $2,092, which means that the company is still not fully exposed to the high gold price.

But this morning, it jumped into a tie up with advanced WA explorer NTM Gold (ASX:NTM) which would combine the shallow, high-grade resources at NTM’s Redcliffe project with Dacian’s Mt Morgans Gold Operations.

Red 5 (ASX:RED) is in production and its September quarterly highlighted high all-in costs of A$2126 an ounce.

And Medusa Mining (ASX:MML) is another junior that isn’t hedged. Here’s what you need to know about how important that can be.

Medusa’s last quarterly showed all-in costs of $US1079 per ounce.