Bull case for gold remains despite coronavirus vaccine
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Gold prices have dipped following positive news about Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine candidate – but a number of analyst say the bull case for gold remains.
The Royal Bank of Canada and TD Securities last week both made the case for gold even as it tested a crucial support level around $US1,850 an ounce on Pfizer’s news.
“Vaccine should ultimately be a boon for gold bugs, as the Fed could keep nominal rates capped while inflation expectations could firm further as a result,” TD Securities strategists wrote on Wednesday.
RBC meanwhile said in a note to clients on Thursday that while investor flows to gold had levelled out, an effective vaccine would take time to distribute, the economy would take time to recover and political uncertainty remained a worry.
“We believe that there is still a clear appreciation for gold amid all the uncertainty that still persists,” the bank said. “Gold’s story is not yet over in our view.”
The gold & silver sell-off of the past week is likely ending & the metals are poised to resume their big rallies into year-end. Gold to $2300-$2500 & silver to $35-$36 with silver likely heading even higher than that.Miner targets remain GDX $55,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $30.
— David Hunter (@DaveHcontrarian) November 12, 2020
“All of the reasons for gold strength over the past few months are still in place. The horse has left the barn,” Bryan Slusarchuk, CEO of mining company Fosterville South Exploration, told CNN last week. “People are looking at gold as an alternative currency.”
Gavin Wendt, the Sydney-based founding director and senior resource analyst with Minelife, agrees.
He told Stockhead that central banks have been buying gold and “there’s every indication there is going to be more government stimulus.
“That creates a fantastic environment for gold.”
He said in the near-term it could push past $US2,000 an ounce and hit $US2,200 or $US2,300 next year.
“Ten per cent upside – that’s easily achieved,” he said.
Here’s how ASX-listed gold stocks performed November 09 – November 13 [intraday].
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In the medium-term, Wendt believes the yellow metal could reach $US2,500 or $US2,800 within the next three to five years – “with the possibility the price could surprise to the upside,” given how central banks seem to be abandoning inflation targets.
“Their current strategy seems to be inflating away debt,” he said.
Wendt said that higher-cost miners would stand to benefit the most from higher gold prices.
Here are some small cap standouts from the regular ASX crowd that have been catching investor eyes lately.
Manuka Resources (ASX MKR) is already generating cash from its Mt Boppy mine in the Cobar Basin with production kicking off in the second quarter of this year.
Gold production from the existing reserve at the mine is expected to run through to Q2 2021, and generate $25m in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Manuka isn’t hedged, which gives the company full exposure to the high gold price.
Manuka began producing gold from stockpiled Mt Boppy ore processed through the Wonawinta plant in April and has since transitioned to treating newly mined ore from the Mt Boppy pit at Wonawinta.
Laneway Resources (ASX: LNY) has started another mining campaign at its Agate Creek mine in Queensland. Mining of 9,000oz of gold in two stages from the high-grade Sherwood pit is expected to deliver around $24m in revenue.
Bellevue Gold (ASX:BGL) is backed by famous mining investor Tolga Kumova and is developing a 2.3Moz gold project in WA. The company’s Bellevue project in the Wiluna-Norseman gold belt is surrounded by producing gold mines including Northern Star’s Bronzewing and Jundee, St Barbara’s Gwalia operation, and Saracen’s Thunderbox.
In October it discovered a new high-grade lode at the Bellevue project that could drive a significant resource upgrade.
Dacian Gold (ASX:DCN) had an all-in sustaining cost of under $1500 back in January, but was hurting early in 2020 with practically all of its production at the time committed at a miserly $1,768 per ounce. Just over half of its production for the 2021 financial year is also hedged at an average of $2,092, which means that the company is still not fully exposed to the high gold price.
But this morning, it jumped into a tie up with advanced WA explorer NTM Gold (ASX:NTM) which would combine the shallow, high-grade resources at NTM’s Redcliffe project with Dacian’s Mt Morgans Gold Operations.
Red 5 (ASX:RED) is in production and its September quarterly highlighted high all-in costs of A$2126 an ounce.
And Medusa Mining (ASX:MML) is another junior that isn’t hedged. Here’s what you need to know about how important that can be.
Medusa’s last quarterly showed all-in costs of $US1079 per ounce.