Barry FitzGerald: Garimpeiro turns tin baron in hunt for ASX value

It was way back in 2018, when the notion of critical metals was still forming, that Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) produced a slide at a battery metals conference showing that of all of the metals, it was tin that that would be impacted most by global electrification.

Drawing on work by materials experts from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), tin was ranked ahead of lithium (which Rio has since moved into in a big way with more to come), mainly due to the growing use of tin solder in solar panels, electric vehicles, data storage, robotics/artificial intelligence and so on.

Under investment in tin meant growing deficits were on the horizon, with even small deficits to trigger explosive price gains for the minor metal. Production being concentrated in places like China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and the DR Congo also gave tin a geopolitical and ESG overlay.

The Rio/MTI tin thematic did play out as forecast in the following years but with price spikes to both the upside and downside on the way through, depending on what Indonesia and Myanmar in particular were up to with their industries.

But add in the more recent threat of China, the world’s biggest tin producer, adding the metal to the other strategic metals on which it has placed export controls (germanium, graphite, and antimony so far), and it should come as no surprise that tin has been a standout performer in 2024.

Since the start of the year, when it was selling for $US25,700/t, tin has headed higher to $US33,244/t mid-week for a gain of 30%. That compares with the 2023 average of $US25,938/t and the 2022 average of $US31,335/t.

So, the 30% price spurt in the current year is not as spectacular at first glance as it might seem. But there is no doubt that the China factor and the deficits in supply being forecast has raised expectations of the metal reaching new heights in coming years.

As a result, investors are paying more attention to what is on offer on the ASX for tin exposure, whistling again the old campfire song of there being money to be made in tramways, tobacco, and tin.

There is not much on offer to be honest which is no surprise given the global market for tin is so small. And the metal’s tendency to move in big licks up and down means only the hardiest have persevered over the years.

On the basis that the ASX tin stocks could be in for a golden period, Garimpeiro went looking during the week to see what is out there.

Metals X (ASX:MLX)

Reflecting rising tin prices and a strong production effort at its 50% owned Renison mine in Tassie, its shares are up by 42% since the start of the year. It was trading mid-week at 41c for a market cap of $370 million.

Tin has been produced at Renison for more than 100 years, with production recently moving to more than 10,000tpa on a rolling basis. Near mine exploration has also created excitement at the Ringrose prospect.

The company is generating lots of free cash from the high-grade underground operation. It has also demonstrated it thinks its shares are undervalued by launching a 10% on-market share buyback.

Because of its pile of cash, other projects and investments, the enterprise value of the company is much less than its market cap. Its partner at Renison is the world’s biggest producer, Yunnan Tin.

Sky Metals (ASX:SKY)

This small cap tin stock has put its hand up recently for attention thanks to drilling results from its Tallebung project in central NSW. It was trading mid-week at 3.2c for a market cap of $18.8 million.

Tallebung, 70km north-west of Condobolin and on the northern end of the Wagga tin belt, has produced tin on and off since the 1890s and in the modern era under Sky ownership, a resource of 16.5Mt grading 0.15% has been outlined.

The grade is not the highest around but work with TOMRA ore sorting gear indicates the potential for a five-fold increase in grade with the lower mass being amenable to simple gravity separation being another plus.

Assay results from a recent diamond hole program yielded thick intersections of higher grade mineralisation with a high silver count. Results from a reverse circulation program are expected to begin to flow in a couple of weeks.

The results will be worth watching as a previous RC step-out hole 150m to the south of the resource returned 11m grading 1.02% tin, 78g/t silver and 0.13% tungsten from 64m.

For a company of its size, Sky has an impressive board. Veteran value creator in the resources sector Norm Seckold is chairman and another value creator, Rimas Kairaitis, is a non-exec director.

Seckold is currently best known for his chairmanship of the $3.6 billion Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) and the $1.2 billion Alpha HPA (ASX:A4N) where Kairaitis is managing director.

And let’s not forget the CEO, Ollie Davies. He is due to talk all things Sky and tin on Wednesday next week at the Resources Rising Stars conference at the RACV’s Royal Pines on the Gold Coast.

Stellar Resources (ASX:SRZ)

Another Tassie-focussed tin stock which has enjoyed some recent buying support in response to the rise in tin prices. It was trading mid-week for a market cap of $33 million.

It is nicely cashed too to move its Heemskirk project (18km from Renison) towards production from what is the highest grade undeveloped tin deposit in Australia (1.04%), and the third highest in the world.

It has been drilling to upgrade the resource at the Severn and Queen Hill deposits to the indicated category in preparation for their inclusion in a preliminary feasibility study which is in the works.

Savvy resources funds Paradice and Regal like the story. They emerged as substantial shareholders after a recent raising by Stellar to hold 9.9% and 7.5% of the company, respectively.

Elementos (ASX:ELT)

It owns the historic Cleveland tin/tungsten project in Tassie, but its flagship is the Oropesa tin project in sunny Spain.

It was trading mid-week at 8.7c for a market cap of $20m. A definitive feasibility study is in the works and the company has secured an option to acquire a 50% interest in a tin smelter some 220km away.

It means Oropesa is shaping up as the EU’s only mine-to-metal supplier where tin prices command premiums. It’s another to have raised cash recently to maintain momentum.