Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Tuesday, ASX futures were up about 0.45%, pointing to a strong start to the day.

Here’s what happened overnight…

Wall Street slips back into comfort mode

The Dow gained 0.51%, the S&P 500 rose 1.57% and the Nasdaq surged 2.66%, as investors rushed back into the same familiar megacap names they swore were “overcrowded” just days ago.

Tesla jumped 7% after Melius Research crowned it a “must own”, citing momentum around Full Self Driving and Elon Musk’s reminder that Tesla’s latest AI4 chip is already running in vehicles.

Nvidia rose as President Trump moved closer to approving exports of its more powerful H200 AI chips to China, a significant shift from previous restrictions.

Amazon also climbed after confirming plans to spend up to US$50 billion expanding AI and high-performance computing services for US government agencies.

Not everyone joined the celebration.

Novo Nordisk fell 5% after its Alzheimer’s trial of oral semaglutide failed to show meaningful benefit, effectively crushing hopes that GLP-1 drugs could wander off into another billion-dollar disease category.

Bitcoin tried to stabilise at around US$88,500 after plunging from US$120,000 to sub-US$80,000 levels last week.

Over US$19 billion in leveraged longs were wiped out, which analyst Nigel Green called a structural clean-up rather than a death spiral.

And looming over all this news was Michael Burry.

The original Cassandra closed his hedge fund and popped up on Substack to warn that the AI boom resembles the dot-com bubble.

He described it both as “manic investment booms” built on “catastrophically overbuilt supply”.

Fed’s Waller tells market what it wants

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered the line Wall Street has been waiting to frame and tattoo.

“My concern is mainly labour market, in terms of our dual mandate. So I’m advocating for a rate cut at the next meeting,” Waller said.

Instantly, rate-cut odds for December bounced back to roughly 80%, undoing last week’s brief panic when probabilities collapsed below 40%.

But Waller also made it clear the Fed will move into a meeting-by-meeting mode from January, adjusting based on incoming data rather than promising a smooth easing cycle.

Evercore prices the risk

Meanwhile, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel stuck firmly with the AI-led bull narrative and reaffirmed his long-term target of 7,750 for the S&P 500 by end-2026.

“Record concentration risk and elevated valuations though can accentuate short-term turbulence common in structural bull markets.

“Bouts of volatility, such as last week’s episode, are likely to persist, and offer opportunities to add exposure to structural long-term AI themes.”

That’s strategist speak for: yes this market is top-heavy, yes it wobbles easily, but we’re still playing the trend until reality forces otherwise.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: After a case of the baby blues, Monash IVF Group (ASX:MVF) fields $300m takeover offer.

Kristie Batten: St George Mining (ASX:SGQ) aims to be part of Brazil’s critical minerals push.

Gold Digger: Silver demand expected to fall in 2025 … but experts say the bull thesis remains intact.

Barry FitzGerald: Sun Silver’s (ASX:SS1) Maverick Springs a Top Gun in US critical minerals race.

Criterion: It looks like we’re in for a market correction, but how big?

Trading halts

Axel REE Limited (ASX:AXL) – metallurgical results at Caladão Project
Great Divide Mining Limited (ASX:GDM) – proposed acquisition
InhaleRx Limited (ASX:IRX) – capital raising & new drug asset
Patrys Limited (ASX:PAB) – proposed acquisition
Santa Fe Minerals Limited (ASX:SFM) – capital raising & gold-project acquisition
Sarytogan Graphite Limited (ASX:SGA) – capital raising
Iress Limited (ASX:IRE) – reporting obligations

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While St George Mining is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.