Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, November 17, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEDT, ASX futures were already limping, down 0.25% and setting the tone for a soggy Monday open.

Here’s what went down on Friday…

Wall Street’s wobbly finish

Wall Street capped a wild week with a mixed close.

On Friday, the Dow dropped 0.65%, the S&P 500 was basically flat, and the Nasdaq scraped out a 0.13% gain – which, considering Thursday’s bloodbath, felt like a mercy bounce.

Friday started ugly, the sharpest one-day sell-off in over a month. But then AI panic turned into dip-buying.

Tesla did its usual Tesla thing  –  unpredictable, and cracking below US$400 before somehow turning green. Nvidia flipped from red to positive.

Intel is watching AMD eat its lunch in real time. AMD CEO Lisa Su literally told analysts she expects AMD to take “upwards of 50% of CPU server revenue market share.

Meanwhile, the VIX or fear index smashed above 20, its highest in a month and a sign traders are bracing for impact.

Traders now see less than 50% chance of a December Fed rate cut – down from 95% a month ago.

Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari warned about “resilience” in the economy and inflation, which is Fed code for: don’t get your hopes up, mate.

The AI reckoning

Wall Street strategists couldn’t help themselves. When tech sells off, someone has to give it a name.

Morgan Stanley’s Daniel Skelly came in swinging: “What’s happened recently in the market isn’t even close to a tech wreck, but it may be a bit of a tech reckoning.”

He’s right, in a way. AI stocks have run so hard this year that any wobble looks like a crisis.

But then UBS stepped in, soothing everyone..

UBS says this is a bull market and expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,300 by June 2026, which is delightfully optimistic.

Gold predictions

Gold fell by 2% on Friday after surging toward US$4,200 as traders hunted for safety.

The World Gold Council (WGC) reckons the next big swing in 2026 will come down to two things: US tariffs and the Fed’s next round of rate surgery.

“If the trade tariff issues are settled, some market risks may subside, reducing any major impact on gold prices,” said WGC’s Shaokai Fan.

He added that any rate cuts would likely send bullion higher.

Bitcoin fell to US$95k

That wasn’t even the dramatic bit. The dramatic bit is that several on-chain indicators now point to BTC entering a bear market.

10X Research wrote: “There is currently no meaningful marginal buyer stepping in.”

ETF outflows have now hit their second-highest level of the year.
And if BTC breaks US$93k, 10X Research says it could fall “even further in the near term”.

What’s happening this week

Forget the dozens of releases. Only one truly matters.

The delayed September US jobs report, which is dropping on Thursday, Nov 20, US time.

It’s the first full jobs read since the six-week government shutdown froze the entire data pipeline. And it’s the report the Fed desperately needs before its December meeting.

What will it mean for Aussie investors?

It will set the tone for the ASX right into December – especially after a week where CBA tanked, labour data surprised, and everyone suddenly remembered the RBA isn’t exactly in a cutting mood.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Monsters of Rock: Record prices open whole new world for gold stocks.

Precision Points: Rare earths are all the rage, but these unloved commodities could hide bigger opportunities.

Uranium is coming back into play as America outlines its nuclear ambitions.

High Voltage: Lithium miners are making market waves as spodumene prices pass US$1000/t.

Shutdown ends as markets brace for torrent of delayed US data.

Trading halts

3D Energi (ASX:TDO) – update on drilling operations
Airtasker (ASX:ART) – cap raise
Cobre (ASX:CBE) – strategic placement
Etherstack (ASX:ESK) – cap raise
Forrestania Resources (ASX:FRS) – cap raise & proposed acquisition
Mayne Pharma (ASX:MYX) – proposed acquisition
Stakk (ASX:SKK) – new customer contract
Unico Silver (ASX:USL) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Mont Royal is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.