Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Tuesday, November 4, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Tuesday, ASX futures were down 0.1%, pointing to a modestly weak start to the day.

Here’s what went down while we were all dreaming of a rate cut today…

Wall Street still partying on AI

Over in the US, it was another episode of “AI Saves the Market”.

The Nasdaq lifted 0.46%, S&P 500 up 0.18%, but the Dow slumped 0.45%.

Tech did the heavy lifting again.

Amazon jumped 4.5% after its cloud arm signed a US$38 billion deal with OpenAI, feeding ChatGPT enough AWS power to keep writing startup pitches until 2050.

Nvidia climbed 2.5%, because every AI headline is apparently a Nvidia headline now.

The company’s shares have already skyrocketed 1300% in five years, and Loop Capital reckons it’s still just “entering the next Golden Wave.” They’re projecting another 75% upside in the stock because of that.

Microsoft signed a $14.8 billion AI cloud deal with Sydney-based Iren (NASDAQ:IREN), which then surged 13%. Not bad for a local stock that most investors had never heard of yesterday.

But the broader tone was shaky.

The US manufacturing index contracted for the eighth straight month, a way of saying America’s factory floor is starting to echo.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s Austan Goolsbee said he’s “undecided” about another December cut.

Iron ore faces a reality check

The price of iron ore has been holding up, but everyone knows the monster under the bed, Simandou, the West African deposit that’s finally being dragged out of the jungle after decades of coups, corruption, and corporate breakups.

Rio Tinto once controlled the whole thing; now it’s just a minority partner while Chinese players own the rest.

At 3 billion tonnes, Simandou isn’t just big, it’s a market-mover. A flood of new supply gives Beijing exactly what it wants: pricing power.

That’s bad news for anyone named BHP, Rio, or Fortescue, said experts.

Bitcoin loses its mojo

Bitcoin slipped 3% overnight to hover around US$106,500, breaking its seven-year “Uptober” streak.

Traders blamed the Fed for killing the buzz, as the probability of a December rate cut plunged from 90% to 63%.

Liquidity’s tightening, ETF outflows are rising, and the “Fear & Greed” index is parked firmly in “fear.”

RBA set to sit on its hands

Over at the RBA, Michele Bullock is expected to keep things steady today. Not exactly thrilling, but that’s kind of the point.

After last week’s hotter-than-expected CPI, any hope of another rate cut this year just went up in inflationary smoke.

“There’s not much optimism left for a [rate] cut,” said Josh Gilbert at eToro.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: Despite selling life-saving tech, Uscom (ASX:UCM) faces its honourable demise.

Big Tech’s nuclear pivot: How Amazon, Google and Meta are powering the AI revolution.

Kristie Batten: Sky’s the limit for Tallebung in hot tin market.

Health Kick Podcast: Cynata Therapeutics (ASX:CYP) entering into major stem cell clinical catalysts.

Trading halts

Greenvale Energy (ASX:GRV) – cap raise
Infinity Mining (ASX:IMI) – cap raise
Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) – results of testing at Amistad-2 well, Cuba
Olympio Metals (ASX:OLY) – cap raise
Tryptamine Therapeutics (ASX:TYP) – cap raise
Bentley Capital (ASX:BEL) – ASX price query
Piche Resources (ASX:PR2) – cap raise
LCL Resources (ASX:LCL) – periodic reporting compliance failure

At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Auravelle Metals is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.