Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, October 31, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Friday, ASX futures were up 0.3%, pointing to a decent start to the day.

Here’s what happened overnight…

Wall Street’s got the wobbles

The Dow just scraped up 0.23%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.99% and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.57%.

Meta plunged by a massive 11% after promising to spend “significantly more than expected” on AI.

The stock’s free cash flow is going up in smoke, but somehow its bond offering went gangbusters – a $US25 billion issue that drew $US125 billion in orders.

But for all that “AI Arms Race” energy, markets are starting to ask the obvious: when does spending become overreach?

Tesla logged yet another recall, the Cybertruck’s tenth since launch. Not bad for a model that barely accounts for 3% of Tesla’s global deliveries. Shares were down 5%.

Elsewhere, Goldman’s David Mericle still thinks a December rate cut from the Fed Reserve is “quite likely,” but the market’s losing conviction. The probability of a cut has fallen from 91% a week ago to 73%.

Over in Europe, the ECB kept rates steady at 2%, and ECB president Lagarde said: “From a monetary-policy point of view, we are in a good place.”

Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has decided to call it a day, at least on the letter front.

The 95-year-old will hand writing duties to Greg Abel after six decades of Berkshire’s famous shareholder notes.

“Getting the annual Buffett letter each year was Christmas morning for me as an investor,” said Christopher Davis from Hudson Value Partners. That Christmas is now officially over.

Trump and Xi’s ‘truce’ buys time

Donald Trump came out of his meeting with Xi Jinping beaming, calling it “truly great.”

The two agreed to a one-year pause – China will hold off on rare-earth export curbs and the US will halve fentanyl-related tariffs from 20% to 10%.

Beijing also promised to resume buying soybeans and stop the fentanyl flow.

Markets liked it for all of five minutes. Rare-earth stocks bounced, then wobbled.

In truth, it’s not a peace deal, it’s an extension.

As Scott Kennedy from CSIS put it, “China gave some ground, but the clear dynamic is how Chinese threats have gotten the US to back off a series of proposed restrictions.”

In other words, both sides are now busy reinforcing supply chains so they won’t need each other next time.

The upshot is that nothing fundamental changed, and both sides get to keep preparing for round two.

Gold finds its groove (again)

Gold has reclaimed centre stage. Prices jumped 2% as investors realised the “Trump-Xi truce” was more decorative than durable.

“You’ve seen a little bit of weakness in gold… but as the details (of the U.S.-China deal) came out and people realised it was a pretty hollow agreement, you’ve seen the markets back off of any optimism that the trade wars are over,” said Jeffrey Christian from CPM Group.

But the World Gold Council said demand hit a record 1,313 tonnes in Q3, driven by ETF inflows and “FOMO bar and coin trade in full swing.”

What’s ahead today

Friday is shaping up as a busy one.

Origin, ResMed and Capstone Copper will release quarterly updates. AGMs are stacked: Fortescue, CAR Group, Mader, and Pinnacle.

At 11:30am AEDT comes private sector credit data, followed by China’s October PMI at 12:30pm.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Health Check: ASX healthcare stocks are a bargain says broker.

ASX Resources Quarterly Wrap: Structural upward reset keeps gold bulls charging.

IPO Watch: Gold bull market turns old stomping ground into new hunting ground.

Utah makes its case to become America’s critical minerals haven.

This Queensland junior is delivering silver service and solid ESG credentials.

Trading halts

8IH Holdings (ASX:8IH) – price and volume query
Black Dragon Gold (ASX:BDG) – awaiting update from Asturias’ SEKUENS Agency
Elevate Uranium (ASX:EL8) – cap raise
Loyal Metals (ASX:LLM) – cap raise
Piche Resources (ASX:PR2) – cap raise
Red Sky Energy (ASX:ROG) – pending Killanoola-2 drilling results
RocketDNA (ASX:RKT) – cap raise
Steadfast Group (ASX:SDF) – workplace complaint investigation
West Cobar Metals (ASX:WC1) – cap raise

At Stockhead we tell it like it is. While Energy Transition Minerals is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.