Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Everything you need to know before the ASX opens. Pic: Getty Images.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, September 15, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Monday, ASX futures were down 0.5%, pointing to a weak start to the week.

Here’s what went down on Friday….

Wall Street sniffs

Friday was one of those “neither here nor there” market sessions.

The S&P 500 barely twitched, down 0.05%, the Dow slipped 0.59%, while the Nasdaq, fuelled by the AI darling, sneaked in a 0.44% gain.

STOCK INDICES	Value	Change
ASX 200	8,865	0.68%
S&P 500	6,584	-0.05%
Dow Jones	45,834	-0.59%
Nasdaq Comp	22,141	0.44%
Euro Stoxx 50	5,391	0.07%
UK FTSE	9,283	-0.15%
German DAX	23,698	-0.02%
French CAC	7,825	0.02%

US bond yields crept higher, with the 10-year Treasury jumping to 4.06%. That’s the market’s way of reminding equity punters that, yes, risk still has a price.

One of the triggers was the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. September numbers dropped to 55.4, a four-month low.

Inflation expectations over the longer term ticked up too, the kind of data that makes bond traders dump first and think later.

But the Fed-friendly combo of a softer labour market and subdued inflation has punters betting on at least 25bps of cuts at this week’s FOMC.

Futures markets are already pricing in three cuts before Christmas.

If Powell wanted a dovish runway, he’s got one.

US stocks highlights

Warner Bros Discovery popped another 17% after Thursday’s 28% rally. The rumour mill says Paramount Skydance wants to buy it, but this smells more like Ellison family empire-building than genuine synergy.

Tesla was back in the spotlight, up 7% after Nevada gave it the green light to test robocars. The faithful still cheer every headline as if driverless Teslas will roll out tomorrow, not in a decade.

Meanwhile, the Winklevoss twins have finally floated crypto exchange Gemini on the Nasdaq, and the stock promptly went on a 40% rollercoaster that included two trading halts before lunch.

Demand outstripped supply 20-to-1, and the IPO frenzy in the US is already being compared to 2021’s mania, which is starting to set off alarm bells.

FOMC preview

All eyes will turn to the Fed Reserve this Wednesday.

Markets have fully priced in a 25bp trim, with a side bet (about 10%) on Powell getting braver and going 50.

The real intrigue isn’t the cut, that’s a given, but how Powell frames the path forward.

Labour data is softening, inflation is still lurking, and Trump’s public war with the Fed isn’t exactly instilling confidence in central bank independence.

Economists are still split on whether Powell reaches for the nail clippers or the hedge trimmer.

Deutsche Bank is calling three cuts this year, Morgan Stanley reckons four on the trot.

BMO is already sketching out October and December trims on the dot plot.

One way or another, rate cuts are the only show in town.

The week ahead

Closer to home, Thursday’s Aussie jobs data will give the RBA plenty to chew on, with Commonwealth Bank economists tipping 220,000 new jobs and the jobless rate steady at 4.2%.

But China kicks off today with its August activity data – retail sales, industrial production, home prices – which should set the mood for commodities.

Globally, it’s a central bank bonanza: the US Fed on Wednesday, Bank of England on Thursday, Bank of Japan on Friday.

On the corporate side, New Hope drops earnings Tuesday, Patriot Battery Metals holds its AGM the same day, and Infratil runs through investor updates Thursday.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

	Price (US)	Move
Gold:	$3,642.37	0.29%
Silver:	$42.16	1.54%
Iron ore:	$105.43	0.24%
Nickel:	$15,380	1.05%
Copper:	$9,163	-0.62%
Zinc:	$2,949	1.64%
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot:	$11,402	1.23%
Oil (WTI):	$62.56	0.43%
Oil (Brent):	$66.92	1.02%
AUD/USD:	$0.6634	0.31%
Bitcoin:	$115,976	-0.12%