Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Everything you need to know before the ASX opens. Pic: Getty Images.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Thursday, September 11, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Thursday, ASX futures were down 0.2%, pointing to a soft start for today’s session.

Here’s what went down while you were snoring….

Oracle rockets and Apple flops

Wall Street was mixed overnight.

Dow slipped 0.48%, S&P 500 eked out a 0.3% gain after tagging a fresh record, and the Nasdaq barely wheezed into the green at 0.03%.

STOCK INDICES	Value	Change
ASX 200	8,830	0.31%
S&P 500	6,532	0.30%
Dow Jones	45,491	-0.48%
Nasdaq Comp	21,886	0.03%
Euro Stoxx 50	5,361	-0.14%
UK FTSE	9,225	-0.19%
German DAX	23,633	-0.36%
French CAC	7,761	0.15%

But the headline was all about Oracle.

The stock detonated 36% after CEO Safra Catz boasted about signing “significant” AI contracts with the “who’s who of AI, including OpenAI, xAI, Meta, Nvidia, AMD, and many others.”

That single line added more than US$250 billion to Oracle’s market cap in a day.

Nvidia and AMD got dragged higher on the coattails, proving again that in this AI mania, adjacency is a business model.

Over at Apple, it was the opposite vibe: another 3% down as the new iPhone Air got the cold reception.

“It lacked some of the wow and excitement that I think was starting to get baked into expectations,” said Melissa Otto from Visible Alpha.

Meanwhile, Producer prices in the US unexpectedly fell 0.1% in August, the first dip in four months.

So much for tariffs juicing inflation, turns out domestic firms are just eating the costs.

And, Trump gave prayers on Truth Social after Youtuber Charlie Kirk was shot dead in Utah.

He also pushed Europe to slap 100% tariffs on China and India.

Strategists upgrade the S&P

Deutsche Bank bumped its 2025 S&P 500 target to 7,000 from 6,550.

Wells Fargo now reckons 6,650 this year and 7,200 by 2026. Barclays upped theirs too.

Everyone is suddenly glass-half-full, forgetting that three weeks ago the same strategists were crying “AI bubble”.

Translation: we missed the train, better slap a higher target on it.

Trump tweets, oil spikes

Oil rallied almost 2% last night after Trump posted about Russia’s downed drones in Poland: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”

But what really has traders eyeing the screens is Trump pushing Europe to copy his 100% tariffs on China and India for buying Russian crude.

If that ever happens, trade flows will look like a car crash on the M1.

Add Israel taking out Hamas leaders mid-ceasefire talks in Doha, and you’ve got enough geopolitical tinder to keep oil spiky.

And finally…

Eyes are on the European Central Bank tonight, then the big one, US CPI at 10.30pm AEST.

RBC expects the ECB to hold at 4% with a “less automatic” easing path.

For US CPI, the stakes are obvious.

A hot print and this whole “Fed must cut” narrative gets messy.

A cool one and Jay Powell may as well start sharpening his axe.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

	Price (US)	Move
Gold:	$3,640.59	0.37%
Silver:	$41.15	0.67%
Iron ore:	$105.80	-0.26%
Nickel:	$15,170	0.43%
Copper:	$9,074	0.85%
Zinc:	$2,890	0.98%
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot:	$11,402	1.23%
Oil (WTI):	$63.75	1.79%
Oil (Brent):	$67.57	1.78%
AUD/USD:	$0.6613	0.28%
Bitcoin:	$113,780	2.02%