Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, August 25, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST, ASX futures were up 0.9%,  a strong sign that Monday will kick off on the front foot.

Here’s what went down on Friday and Saturday.

Wall Street rockets as Powell hints at a cut

Saturday was proof that one man with a microphone in Wyoming can still move the world.

The Dow ripped higher by 1.89% to a fresh record, the S&P 500 rose 1.52%, and the Nasdaq added 1.88%.

Jerome Powell finally threw markets a bone at Jackson Hole, saying “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.”

That was all it took to turn a skittish week of AI doubts and labour jitters into a euphoric stampede.

Odds of a September rate cut shot from 70% to over 90% in a matter of minutes.

Treasury yields sank, and tech found its mojo again.

Elsewhere, Intel spiked 5% after Trump declared the government will take a 10% stake, calling it a “great deal”, though whether taxpayers agree remains to be seen.

Apple and Alphabet also climbed on reports Siri may end up borrowing brains from Google’s Gemini AI.

Powell blinks, but not fully

Jerome Powell gave a speech in what’s likely his final appearance as Fed chair at Jackson Hole.

He warned that tariffs could “tilt inflation risks to the upside”, though his main focus was on the labour market.

“While the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers,” he said.

That “curious balance” is Fed-speak for cracks forming.

For investors, that means September almost certainly brings one cut. But beyond that? The Fed’s as divided as a hung parliament.

Some governors want multiple cuts, some want just one, and others still think holding rates high is the only way to contain tariffs-driven inflation.

“The easiest path ahead is for a slow path of rate cuts,” said Deutsche Bank’s Matthew Luzzetti.

The usual reflex from crypto

Whenever the Fed dangles the promise of easier money, crypto reacts like Pavlov’s dog.

Ethereum surged 9% on Friday, Bitcoin rose 2% (before sliding 2% the other way at this time of writing), and Solana and XRP both jumped 4%.

Crypto stocks followed suit: Coinbase shot 7%, Circle climbed nearly 10%, while Robinhood and MicroStrategy tacked on decent gains.

This week’s agenda

On Wednesday, Australia drops its monthly CPI read.

CBA reckons headline inflation will nudge up by 20 basis points to 2% in July. Strip out the noise, though, and the trimmed mean is tipped to stay steady at 2.1%.

Then over in the States, Friday brings the Fed’s favourite inflation yardstick: the core PCE.

Meanwhile, corporate confession season is in full roar.

Around 175 ASX companies report this week, the heaviest burst of earnings we’ll get all August.

And.. Wall Street wraps up its own season with a blockbuster Wednesday:  Nvidia front and centre, flanked by CrowdStrike, Hewlett-Packard and Snowflake.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Namibia is the world’s third largest uranium producing nation, building a strong case for ASX juniors who are looking to join those ranks.

Jurisdiction Spotlight: Opportunistic buying places Argentina as front-runner in Lithium Triangle.

Markets bet on rate cuts, but Powell holds the cards at Jackson Hole.

The market’s dependence on a few megacaps has been exposed, writes Nigel Green. With that knowledge in mind, how then should investors view the future?

Trading halts

Apostle Dundas Global Equity Fund (ASX:ADEF) – IT disruptions
Australian Unity Office Fund (ASX:AOF) – transaction update
Leeuwin Metals Ltd (ASX:LM1) – assay results / new target area
K2 Australian Small Cap Hedge Fund (ASX:KSM) – IT disruptions
Omega Oil and Gas Limited (ASX:OMA) – operational update
QX Resources Limited (ASX:QXR) – cap raise + material project acquisition

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While EMVision Medical Devices is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.