Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, August 22, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST, ASX200 futures were down 0.15%, pointing to a soft start for Friday.

Here’s what went down while we were sleeping….

Wall Street stumbles

Over in New York, the mood was sour.

The Dow slipped 0.34%, the S&P shed 0.4% and the Nasdaq dropped once again, this time by 0.34%.

Blame Walmart. The retail behemoth missed profit expectations for the first time in three years, and the stock got belted by 4%.

While Walmart upped its full-year sales forecast, the miss was enough to remind traders that even the world’s biggest shopkeeper isn’t immune to slipping.

Nvidia logged its third straight drop, investors no longer satisfied with AI promises and starting to mutter: “Show me the money.”

Intel gave back earlier gains too, proving that even SoftBank’s $2 billion sniff of interest and Washington’s flirtation with a 10% stake can’t hide old wounds.

The one bright spot was Boeing, which managed to climb 1.5% on rumours of selling 500 jets to China. That would be Beijing’s biggest Boeing buy since Trump’s 2017 trip.

Adding spice, US jobless claims ran hotter than expected, climbing to 235,000, while factories revved up to their fastest clip in three years.

It’s the sort of combo that makes the Fed sweat under its collar.

Jackson Hole: where words weigh trillions

Which is why every punter’s eye is now glued to Jackson Hole.

Powell will make a speech on Saturday AM AEST, and the market’s suddenly less confident he’ll play Santa in September.

A week ago, rate cut odds were above 90%. Now they’ve drifted to 74%, still high, but sliding like sand through fingers.

Cleveland Fed boss Beth Hammack bluntly said: “If the meeting was tomorrow, I would not see a case for reducing interest rates.”

Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid called the upcoming August jobs report “very consequential.”

Jackson Hole is where a single line can ricochet through every market on Earth.

Powell knows it, which is why he’s unlikely to promise anything except more chin-scratching.

Now read: Markets bet on rate cuts, but Powell holds the cards at Jackson Hole

Trump’s victory lap

Trump managed to steal the spotlight yet again.

A New York appeals court just tossed out the US$464 million fraud penalty hanging over him, calling it “excessive.”

The judges still agreed he puffed up his assets, but the fine’s gone, and Trump’s already declaring victory.

Today’s agenda

Back home, Guzman y Gomez and Monash IVF report today, giving local investors something tasty to chew on while waiting for Powell.

The ASX looks set to shuffle in cautiously this morning, wary that one word out of Wyoming could flip the script.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Most Aussies aren’t on board with Scott Farquhar’s idea to let Big Tech use creative work for AI, with the majority wanting clear rules that protect people first and build trust before chasing the promised $600 billion windfall.

TinyBeans (ASX:TNY) has tightened costs, lifted subscriber momentum, and swung into positive cash flow in the back half of FY25, setting itself up as a go-to, privacy-first parenting platform for growth in FY26.

LinQ Minerals (ASX:LNQ) ) says a combination of geochemical, gravity and drilling data points to potentially sizeable porphyry system at Gidginbung.
Diablo Resources (ASX:DBO) ) is progressing drilling the Trenton and Philadelphia prospects at Phoenix in Utah, hunting for copper in the US.
Nimy Resources (ASX:NIM) hunt for the elusive copper-nickel source at Masson has taken a compelling twist with the discovery of three conductive plates.
Metallium (ASX:MTM) has secured exclusive options to lease two additional sites in the US for its electronic waste processing operations.

Trading halts

Gateway Mining Limited (ASX:GML) – exploration results
Locksley Resources Limited (ASX:LKY) – material agreement
Meteoric Resources NL (ASX:MEI) – exploration licence process
SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited (ASX:SKC) – cap raise

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.