Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Monday, August 18, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST, ASX futures were pointing to a sluggish Monday, down 0.6%.

Here’s what happened  in the US markets on Friday.

Wall Street pulls back from the heights

Wall Street’s Friday session closed mixed, but the week still chalked up a win.

The Dow Jones squeezed out a 0.08% rise, the S&P 500 slipped 0.29%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.4%, both easing off record levels.

US investors have been partying on rate-cut hopes, but the music stuttered when fresh data showed inflation isn’t giving up easily.

Producer Prices (PPI) came in hotter than expected on Thursday, while Friday’s retail sales rose 0.5%, slightly below forecasts.

That resilience is a double-edged sword: good for growth, but sticky inflation makes the Fed nervous about cutting too soon.

Meanwhile, Trump’s fresh threat of semiconductor tariffs “as soon as this week,” sent chip stocks tumbling on Friday.

Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Micron all slipped.

This matters for the ASX because our own tech names often move in lockstep with their US cousins.

Goldman Sachs: The Goldilocks era looks fragile

Goldman Sachs piped up with a warning: the “Goldilocks” markets are enjoying (not too hot, not too cold) might not last.

Conditions have been near-perfect: moderate inflation, Big Tech earnings on AI steroids, and low volatility.

But Goldman points out that investors have grown comfy with thinner risk premiums, effectively settling for less return because markets aren’t swinging wildly.

That’s fine… until something cracks.

If growth slows or the Fed tightens further, volatility can snap back hard, the bank says.

Trump, Putin and oil’s slide

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met in Alaska to discuss Ukraine. An odd setting, but geopolitics loves symbolism.

The summit didn’t bring peace, but it did spark market rumours.

Trump hinted at “severe consequences” if Moscow drags its heels, while Putin apparently insisted Kyiv surrender more land. No immediate resolution at this stage.

Crude prices slipped around 1% as supply fears eased slightly.

This week’s agenda

Australia’s macro diary is on the lighter side this week, but there’s still plenty that could jolt markets out of their Monday slump.

On Tuesday we’ll get the latest Consumer Sentiment Index.

The big question here is whether Aussie households are starting to loosen their purse strings after the RBA’s cuts, or if they’re still clutching their wallets.

Midweek, attention swings across the ditch. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely tipped to trim its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3%.

But the real action is earnings season.

Around 150 ASX companies are lining up to report, with some heavyweights in the mix: A2 Milk, NAB, BHP, CSL, Woodside and Santos.

Banks will be grilled on margins, miners will be watched for China demand and iron ore guidance, and CSL is the defensive benchmark.

Hovering above all of it, like a hawk, is the Fed Reserve.

On Wednesday night it drops the minutes from its July meeting where it held rates steady but softened its language on the economy.

Investors are praying for hints that September will finally bring the first cut.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

What got you talking

Also in the news…

High Voltage: Lithium prices jump, but supply chain scares in Chile and China may just be a hiccup.

Dr Boreham’s Crucible: Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6) is a clear and strong contender in the prostate cancer treatment race.

Monsters of Rock: Critical minerals stocks load up on investor cash.

Audeara (ASX:AUA) and Ear Science are rolling out a $100,000 pilot to test bone conduction tech that keeps kids connected in classrooms and beyond.

Trading halts

Anson Resources (ASX:ASN) – cap raise
OD6 Metals (ASX:OD6) – cap raise
Sarytogan Graphite (ASX:SGA) – cap raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Audeara is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.